In a recent article for Layout, the Russian journalist Ilya Zhegulev investigates how Putin “came up with the idea of a war in Ukraine”. Zhegulev is a respected dissident who’s currently affiliated to the Wilson Center in Washington (he’s not pro-Putin, in other words).
While there’ve been hundreds of articles discussing why Putin launched the invasion, this one happens to be based on “conversations with former and current officials in the Russian and Ukrainian authorities”. So it’s more worth your time than most – even if you don’t agree with all the author’s interpretations.
Some themes are familiar, of course. Putin increasingly viewed independent Ukraine as an “artificial phenomenon”. He was deeply suspicious of U.S. influence, believing that Americans “make all decisions regarding Ukraine”. And he’d sought to keep Ukraine within Russia’s sphere of influence via the Minsk agreements, which were “a great relief”.
When Zelensky came to power, Putin “hoped it would be possible to negotiate”, assuming “he would beat the inexperienced politician and finally launch the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. However, Zelesnky proved to be “an even more difficult negotiator than his predecessor”. After the 2019 Paris Summit failed to yield a satisfactory outcome, relations rapidly deteriorated.
The “last straw” was Zelensky’s decision to ban three pro-Russian TV channels linked to Putin-ally Viktor Medvedchuk. According to Zhegulev, this was an attempt to “neutralise” Medvedchuk – whose party had recently beaten Zelensky’s in six regional elections.
Three sources “close to the Russian president” all confirmed the significance of Zelensky’s decision, which Putin took as a “personal attack”. Zhegulev notes that “the existence of Medvedchuk and his channels” had been “like a bridge and a hope to somehow resolve the situation by political means”.
What Zhegulev doesn’t mention is how Oleksandr Danylyuk, Zelensky’s former national security adviser, characterised the decision in an interview with Time magazine last year. Specifically, he said that it was “calculated to fit in with the U.S. agenda”.
It’s not entirely clear what Danylyuk meant by this. The author of the Time article writes that banning the TV channels was “conceived as a welcome gift to the Biden Administration, which had made the fight against international corruption a pillar of its foreign policy”. So perhaps all Danylyuk meant is that Zelensky knew the U.S. would approve of him putting a stop to something that they considered corruption.
However, it’s certainly noteworthy that a decision representing the “last straw” for Putin was also “calculated to fit in with the U.S. agenda”.
There are two possibilities. One is that U.S. officials were well-intentioned but had such poor knowledge of the situation they never considered Putin would react to his ally’s TV channels being banned. The other is that U.S. officials actually wanted Putin to react.
Neither possibility inspires confidence.
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There were many reasons why Putin invaded.
Ascribing this decision to being “the last straw” is both impossible to prove and loaded with propagandistic opportunities.
This, in particular, is so laughable it discredits everything:
”banning the TV channels was “conceived as a welcome gift to the Biden Administration, which had made the fight against international corruption a pillar of its foreign policy”
The most overtly corrupt presidency since LBJ that cavorts with the most corrupt nation in Europe…please.
Agreed…the arming of Ukraine by the US and EU over the last eight years…and this has been stated by Stoltenberg on many occasions…arming it for what?
According to our own Boris oaf…for purely defensive purposes….yeah, right….
The US has nuclear weapons in Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands and Turkey..there’s already talk of placing some in Finland as they have now joined NATO……so should Russia have no worries about their security? Why is their security concerns any less than anyone else’s?
Let’s turn the tables and get Russia and China to arm Mexico for eight years, plow trillions into it, make their army the second biggest in the world…. let them join into an alliance and place some nuclear weapons on the USA border….purely for defensive purposes of course…
As you say there are dozens of reason why Putin felt he had to act…I agree that this seems the unlikeliest ‘straw’ in the haystack….
A major problem with that idea is that Ukraine is not exactly a stable nation to start with. The differences between regions are part of it, and if there wasn’t an external invasion, it could credibly have ended up with a civil war between the Russian oriented part and the rest.
There has already been one since 2015.
Zelensky was elected to end the civil war but he was forced to change his mind by threats against him.
“Back in October 2019, as the war in eastern Ukraine dragged on, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Zolote, a town situated firmly in the “gray zone” of Donbas, where over 14,000 had been killed, mostly on the pro-Russian side. There, the president encountered the hardened veterans of extreme right paramilitary units keeping up the fight against separatists just a few miles away.
Elected on a platform of de-escalation of hostilities with Russia, Zelensky was determined to enforce the so-called Steinmeier Formula conceived by then-German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier which called for elections in the Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
In a face-to-face confrontation with militants from the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion who had launched a campaign to sabotage the peace initiative called “No to Capitulation,” Zelensky encountered a wall of obstinacy.
With appeals for disengagement from the frontlines firmly rejected, Zelensky melted down on camera. “I’m the president of this country. I’m 41 years old. I’m not a loser. I came to you and told you: remove the weapons,” Zelensky implored the fighters.
Once video of the stormy confrontation spread across Ukrainian social media channels, Zelensky became the target of an angry backlash.
Andriy Biletsky, the proudly fascist Azov Battalion leader who once pledged to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade…against Semite-led Untermenschen”, vowed to bring thousands of fighters to Zolote if Zelensky pressed any further. Meanwhile, a parliamentarian from the party of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko openly fantasized about Zelensky being blown to bits by a militant’s grenade.
Though Zelensky achieved a minor disengagement, the neo-Nazi paramilitaries escalated their “No Capitulation” campaign. And within months, fighting began to heat up again in Zolote, sparking a new cycle of violations of the Minsk Agreement.
By this point, Azov had been formally incorporated into the Ukrainian military and its street vigilante wing, known as the National Corps, was deployed across the country under the watch of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, and alongside the National Police. In December 2021, Zelensky would be seen delivering a “Hero of Ukraine” award to a leader of the fascistic Right Sector in a ceremony in Ukraine’s parliament.
A full-scale conflict with Russia was approaching, and the distance between Zelensky and the extremist paramilitaries was closing fast.”
The fact that Russia now had a lame duck Zelensky who was controlled by the US and the interests of ultranationalist paramilitaries was one of many reasons why Russia felt compelled to enter Ukraine.
The closing of 3 TV channels was a minor issue.
The main reasons were iterated by Putin himself …….
Extract from Putin speech 24th February 2022.
“They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today. In these circumstances, we have to take bold and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help.
In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.
The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”
Thanks for that. It’s hard for the Ukraine flag wavers to counter these historical facts.
could you link to the source please?
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/
…yes Elensky was voted in on the platform of stopping the disagreements with Russia….but part of the ‘whitewashing’ of Elenskyy is that it became apparent to the Ukrainian people that he wasn’t the man for the job pretty early on……if you look at
Any Polls, Statista has some, the Ukrainian’s trust in him was going down from 2020 onwards.. more people did not trust him..than did…his approval rating throughout 2020/2021 was also dire….
I think his popularity plunging might be a reason the USA pushed for the proxy war…
..before he got voted out and they lost their pawn in the game?
“When Russia began using force against Ukraine, Zelensky’s approval rating was 17%.”
https://vpk.name/en/590379_zelenskys-mistake-did-not-prevent-the-ukrainian-crisis.html
Yes..thanks….just my opinion, but I think the US needed to use their puppet before he was voted out….or someone more agreeable to Russia was voted in…just one of many reasons…
We know Putin planned to take control of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in the next several phases of his expansionist aims to regain for the Russian Federation the terrirories previously held by the USSR.
How do we know this. Because the Russian government, in its own documents and through its mouthpiece, RIA Novosti, has told us so.
It seems unlikely that a few newspaper closures would have made much difference.
The last straw? Hmmm….. Well, is the Bactrian camel’s back broken?
Tell us what they actually said, as I would like to draw my own conclusions, rather than you try to draw them for me. I am sure you will decline and tell me to do my own research, so just let me know the date of the pronouncement or a pertinent phrase to search on.
‘What should Russia do with Ukraine?’ Timofey Sergeytsev, RIA Novosti 03 April 22
FSB Outline of Operational Aims and Means, 21 November 2021.
President of Russia, ‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation’, transcript, 21 February 2022,
‘Union State’ Internal Strategy Document, Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation Sept. 2021
..bit of cherry picking going on..if you believe RIA about this, then you must believe there are Nazis in Ukraine, and that is the reason for the operation….. because they have said that as well?
Of course there are nazis in Ukraine, just as there are nazis in Russia and, unfortunately, most other places. Of course de-nazification is one of the given reasons for the operation. But then, of course, the same article defines nazis as Europeans -you and I- and defines de-nazification as de-europeanisation – coming to a town near you shortly, if you don’t do something about it.
I am only interested in the words of Putin, all the other articles are third party opinions. I read the 21/02/22 transcript in full and could find nothing that could be interpreted as a take-over of the entire Ukraine.
If that is the case when, exactly, did he say he intends taking over a Moldova?
The ‘Union State’ will be set up by 2030, no doubt with a more catchy name…The United Soviet Socialist Republic is said to be the most favoured option…..
Come on! Only a complete naif could believe that the words of a state owned newspaper within a totalitarian state are ‘third party opinions’, most particularly not RIA Novosti.
This is one of the things Putin said:
‘It is now that radicals and nationalists, including and primarily those in Ukraine, are taking credit for having gained independence. As we can see, this is absolutely wrong. The disintegration of our united country was brought about by the historic, strategic mistakes on the part of the Bolshevik leaders and the CPSU leadership, mistakes committed at different times in state-building and in economic and ethnic policies’.
Putin 21 Feb 22
The FSB Outline of Operational Aims and Means, 21 November 2021 makes clear that, in 2021, the 9th Directorate of the FSB’s Fifth Service Department for Operational Information had prepared for the occupation of Ukraine from July 2021 onwards.
In 2020, the 11th Unit of the Department for Operational Information, responsible for Moldova, was assessing plans for the next round of operations under the direction of Major General Dmitry Milyutin. In November 2020, the FSB’s strategic objective in Moldova was to bring about ‘The full restoration of the strategic partnership between Moldova and the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, a 17-page document, created in 2021 by the Kremlin’s Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation and recently leaked, details Russia’s future steps to take full control of Belarusian political, economic, and military spheres by the end of the decade.
By 2030, Belarus should have a single currency and tax system with Russia, and its media space must be under Russian control. The Belarusian army must comply with Russian regulations. All key military production must be transferred from Belarus to Russia.
The Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation was established five years ago. The rather innocuously named directorate’s actual task is to exert control over neighbouring countries that Russia sees as part of its sphere of influence.
Russia’s end strategic goal is to finalize the merger of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova into a Moscow-run Union State by 2030.
Isn’t global politics difficult?
Is it similar to the USA and it’s Indo-Pacific strategy….the one that doesn’t include China……?….. China is the biggest economy actually situated in the indo pacific area, but America (@8.000 miles away) thinks they have a say…weird isn’t it?
There is nothing in global politics that cannot be worked out in the following manner:
‘Speak softly, and carry a big stick’
Theodore Roosevelt, Minnesota State Fair, Falcon Heights, Minnesota, 02 Sept 1901.
Not difficult at all, unless, of course, you are an Oxbridge/Enarque/Berlin/Leipzig/Harvard/Stanford/Yale educated and academically gifted politician of a certain age.
Of course, the West might listen to what Putin actually said about Ukraine and the reasons he began the SMO, but no, they prefer to make up stories about what they say they .knew he really meant
‘‘It is now that radicals and nationalists, including and primarily those in Ukraine, are taking credit for having gained independence. As we can see, this is absolutely wrong. The disintegration of our united country was brought about by the historic, strategic mistakes on the part of the Bolshevik leaders and the CPSU leadership, mistakes committed at different times in state-building and in economic and ethnic policies.’
Putin 21 Feb 22
Many Ukrainians including those who have sought refuge over here are Russian as much as they are Ukrainian in terms of language ,place of birth and parentage .The Maidan revolution and extreme Ukrainian nationalism has caused deep divisions and there is an open ethnic cleansing of Russian culture and history .All Ukrainians ,men and women 18 to 60 are now liable to be conscripted regardless of military experience. Understandably many do not wish to die for a very corrupt regime .It is possible that some Ukrainians came here to escape that regime as much as the war.There is plenty of black and white propaganda in the MSM so it it is disappointing to find it here rather than discussion of the complex issues at play.
And how many left Russia for the same reason (circa one million)?
Many of them relocated to Ukraine!
Ukraine was the leading country of destination of Russian emigrants in 2022, with around one hundred and twenty thousand people changing their residence to that country.
Circa nonsense…..according to Statista it might be around 120.000, who may then have gone on elsewhere. According to the EU most people who left Russia in 2022 went to the ‘stans’ and Turkey…
‘According to the EU’ Ergo nonsense.
5.6 million have returned to Ukraine since Putin’s invasion (International Organisation for Migration).
I wonder why?
Makes Putin’s conscription of 300,000 ‘pressed men’ look rather silly, futile, doesn’t it.
You still don’t get it…..but you will……
Russia had already taken part of Ukraine by force and was continually pushing on the borders to take more. Part of the problem was some people in Ukraine were pro Russian and would have been quite keen for Ukraine to return to Russia. As far as we can tell, they were in the minority but were under the impression that Ukraine was subject to Russian influence and control. It seems that the majority in Ukraine valued its independence and liked the way western democracies worked and wanted that for themselves. What Putin didn’t like was that possibility and how it may have spread into Russia. Putin was able to brainwash his people with propaganda and wanted to do that to the Ukrainians and made sure western output was excluded from Russia. He knew while Ukraine claimed independence, he couldn’t restrict western output there but wanted to continue the same brainwashing in Ukraine. I can understand without his propaganda media being broadcast, that wouldn’t happen and interaction between Russians and Ukrainians might weaken his message in Russia, so for that reason the restricting of it in Ukraine was a big issue for him.