A chart has been doing the rounds on Twitter that appears to show a dramatic fall in the number of men in Ukraine. Two population pyramids are overlaid – one for 2021 and one for 2023 – with the latter indicating a substantially smaller young and middle-aged population:
The alleged source of the chart is a Times article by Maxim Tucker. However, the article does not currently display the chart; nor do any of the archived versions that I found. According to a Russian journalist who posted a screenshot of what appears to be the original version, “The editors of The Times realized that they showed too shocking data of the demographic catastrophe in Ukraine, and removed the corresponding graphics”.
But I’m sceptical. If the editors did in fact remove the chart (before anyone archived the article), a more plausible explanation is that it’s simply not accurate.
As you can see in the lower left-hand corner, the source of the data is given as the UN Population Division. I found the relevant page on their website, and sure enough it shows the same two population pyramids. So whoever made the chart actually did use the UN’s data. But this only means the UN is wrong!
According the UN Human Rights Commissioner, approximately 8 million people have left Ukraine since Russia’s invasion last year. So there has been a dramatic fall in population. Yet crucially, 87% of Ukrainian refugees are women. (A recent EU report gives an even higher figure of 91%.) The reason for the imbalance is simple: men are banned from leaving the country.
Despite this well known fact, the chart above shows an approximately equal sized fall in the male and female population. Which could be interpreted as showing that millions of Ukrainian men have died in battle – something that’s wildly implausible.
On 17th March, BBC News Service Russia estimated from publicly available data that up to 47,000 men have died on the Russian side. Even if Ukrainian losses are three times greater (and I don’t think they are), that would still be ‘only’ 150,000 men. This amounts to less than 1% of the pre-war male population – nowhere near as large as the change shown on the chart.
It’s possible that when the UN made the 2023 population pyramid for Ukraine, they forgot to account for the female skew among refugees, and hence divided the 8 million shortfall equally between the two sexes. I don’t know.
Ukraine faces a profound demographic crisis: the loss of millions of educated young women, many of whom may not return once the war’s over. However, there’s no evidence the country has lost millions of men.
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Again :
“ … the success of Britain’s vaccine rollout”
What ‘success’? A ~1% ARR isn’t much of an achievement, is it?
P.S. Why does this exaggeration matter?
… Because it opens the door to perpetuating all the ills that accrue from a mythical dependence on an injection as a condition of normal life : such as vaccine passports and ‘boosters’ in perpetuity.
Liberty is not conditional.
Nobody care what you say Rick, they must know you’re a fool. “The uptake of the vaccine has been astonishingly high. For all over-50s, uptake is 94%.”
“Enthusiasm among those in their late 40s was so high that when we opened up the booking system last week they briefly overloaded the website.” Sore Loser? Yep, that’s it.
Reference please for those figures. I smell fake news. And looks like uptake for second injection is considerably lower.
I totally agree with what you say – the uptake of the ‘vaccines’ has been high … …
… for an undertested concoction of little benefit and extaordinarily high level of harms when compared with other medicines.
But, of course, what people do in this climate of power propaganda and deliberately induced fear is totally outside the realm of sense and evidence. That has been true for over a year in every aspect of government policy – including vaccines, which a desperate public has held onto like a leaking lifeboat.Whether people en masse are ‘stupid’ is a moot point; but they are certainly behaving ‘stupidly’ – in the sense of avoiding rationality and the bleedin’ obvious. I have no doubt than many would swallow cyanide pills if told they were nectar.
It’s not what I ‘say’ which is the issue. Everything is based on evidence from trials that I have explicitly presented. Hard numbers. I note that you haven’t even tried to debate those numbers and when they mean, or even show an understanding of the statistical concepts that they embody.
So … in terms of ‘fool’ – the cap and bells are worn by you. I conclude that you have no argument to present (forget the ambiguity of your favourite parotted line-graph). I’m talking the numbers related to treatment and control groups.
As to your comment about being a ‘sore loser’ : well, firstly, how can you be a ‘loser’ when your opponent just runs off in a random direction asserting nonsense. And secondly, the accusation shows a petty mind merely stamping a foot when it can’t get its own way – the mentality of the playground.
Absolute Risk isn’t 1%.
That’s a calculation based on numbers from an early end point.
I think he means absolute risk reduction.
Precisely.
RickH does mean that , but it’s a bad measure on several counts, most notable is that is it is hard to gauge in a trial, since the baseline risk varies for every person. Relative risk reduction is superior in every way, esp since it obviates the need to know the baseline risk, which is so volatile. It tells you, independently of the baseline risk, what the risk is if you do something, versus the risk if you do not do it, which is what you really need to know.
With some of the vaccines there is relative risk reduction of 95%, i.e. you are twenty times less likely to get covid19, since 95% is 19/20ths of the risk of getting covid is eliminated, leaving you with 5%, i.e 1/20th of the risk remaining.
It’s a far superior metric, much easier to calculate and understand than the useless and inaccurate ARR. RickH is biased so he wants to cast the vaccine in a poor light, despite their success in driving infections very low, as the plot shows; the vaccine works great.
he’s far too ignorant to know what he means.
Early endpoint? It’s numbers based on comparison of treatment and control groups. I’ve previously quoted sources and detail.
yes, because the trials end when there are sufficient numbers to get the relative risk reduction, the important number that tells you the value of doing something versus not doing it. Pay no heed whatsoever to RickH, he’s ignorant.
The trials are not designed to measure absolute risk reduction, RickH is too think to know about that.
This success:
Yes we’ve seen that meaningless graph many times now, thanks.
it’s a great shape asymptotically plunging to zero due to vaccine.
You see that big peak in cases in January 2021?
That was caused by your vaccines. Massive increase in infections in the first few days following the first dose. Identical pattern seen everywhere else around the world where a big vaccine programme was launched.
Similarly the peak in deaths. Caused by your vaccines. Pushing frail elderly people in care homes over the edge.
Your vaccines are duds.
> Massive increase in infections in the first few days
yeah right so the dead vaccine gives old people covid19! I thought I’d heard it all, but that just takes the cake! You need help.
The vaccine causes the immune system to be depressed for the first week or so after the first dose, allowing viruses including SARS-COV-2 to strike. Particularly dumb idea to launch a vaccine in the middle of the respiratory virus season whilst the luve virus is still circulating.
The flu vaccine is always given out well in advance of the winter flu season, for this reason.
Or it should be. Last year, they extended the age range for ‘flu jabs, and I received a promotional letter about it, rather late in the season. I ignored it, as by the time it was done it would have been a waste of time, given the absence of situations where there could have been a ‘flu risk. There wasn’t much of it around anyway, if you believe the stats. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot of surplus ‘flu products that will be out of date. Always a bit of guess work about what to offer each year, with ‘flu mutating regularly.
Silly question probably, but has someone invented an actual vaccination against this Chinese Wuhan Flu?
The only treatment which Bill Gates and the Communist WHO recommend is Gene Therapy. Correct me if I am wrong.
You need to get to grips with basic statistical concepts – such as correlation, causation – and time. I understand that you’ve not yet got to grips with risk calculations, either.
As said , on your impressionistic basis, you can make as good a case for increased mortality/culling of the vulnerable after the introduction of the ‘vaccines’.
sore loser? I got _your_ number.
fon – You haven’t got any numbers – or even a basic knowledge of what they mean.
This fon guy, his posts read like he uses words he doesn’t understand.
I think we know after all this time that he hasn’t a clue about basic statistical concepts or experimental procedure. He hasn’t engaged with anything of substance. On reflection, probably not 77th Brigade – I don’t think their recruitment procedures would be quite that flawed
Yes, agreed, I suspect either English isn’t his first language, in which case he should bugger off and bother the people in his own country, or he’s a computer programme!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHkGShmees4
so can I go outside now?
Hazmattaboy!
“data, not dates” – only data when it gets worse, he means; data getting better is ignored.
One must remember to define what ‘Covid deaths’ means. The current newspeak now omits to to say whether death WITH or FROM Covid19, and in either case false positives in the test have been inflating this figure by a factor of 4 (even at the lower end of the scale) since the onset of mass testing.
Now onto the meaningless graph being provided by Fon. Let us go to the possible source of the graph, but include all info (below):
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report
OK. Fon claims his single red line as vaxx success, but it is simply the usual seasonal peak of flus in January. It happens every year so nothing to see.
Crucially, when divided into separate age groups one can see the mortality figures follow precisely the same trend independently of whether that age group had been jabbed or not.
The main difference is that the over 80s mortality curve incline becomes dramatically steeper than all other age groups as soon as the vaxxes are rolled out (mainly for that age group) in early December.
In mid Jan 2021 it peaks at 12,000 deaths per 100,000 for this 80+ age group, whereas the 70-79 age group peaks simultaneously at around 2,000 deaths per 100,000.
Clearly flu deaths always hit the elderly harder, the 80+ group are more vulnerable, and the usual caveat applies that coincidence is not causation, but one must question if that that mortality multiplier of 6x over the lower age 70-79 group has ever been as marked on previous year’s flu stats? From what I can so far find it has not, but I have yet to see a directly comparable graph for seasonal flu. Maybe someone can provide a link?
Figure 3.a. Seven-day rolling average mortality rates (per 100,000 population) in laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 by age group, from week 27 onwards
Why is the government relying on the threat of variants? Ferguson’s models have always predicted deaths an order of magnitude above reality. Why do they believe them now, when surges in death due to respiratory causes in the summer is unheard of? And why the extra testing now that the ‘covid deaths’ and ‘covid cases’ are subsiding?
Maybe they know something about upcoming fatalities? What could that be? Pathogenic priming from the jabs, the probabilities increasing as the victims become younger? The regular tests can be used to misattribute these deaths. The playing down of the efficacy of the jabs prepares the way to remove them from the narrative.
It is a frightening scenario, but there are few plausible alternatives that fit all these things together so well.
They need variants because they know that Ferguson’s models are increasingly losing credibility.
Absolutely. Most of us have noted the constant pattern of the Scary Fairy being given a blood transfusion every time the underlying anaemia shows.
What is so terrifying is the lack of such obvious perception amongst swathes of the public.
Rather like climate change modellers not taking into account the quantity of water in the atmosphere, could the reduction be due to the respiratory infection cycle coming to a close? Or is that too much of a stretch?
Is “fon” worth the effort of engaging with. Unlike Mayo, who challenged with some good points, he seems to bring nothing useful to the party.
One thing that concerns me about repeating articles focused around a day’s figures – this unscientific data is also subject to the reverse spin if figures briefly increase.