The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published inaccurate data about the COVID-19 pandemic and made incorrect claims that exaggerated the threat on at least 20 occasions since January 2021, a new paper has found.
The pre-print (not yet peer-reviwed) by Vinay Prasad, Tracy Beth Hoeg, Kelley Krohnert and Alyson Haslam documents 25 instances when the CDC reported statistical or numerical errors. Twenty (80%) of these instances exaggerated the severity of the COVID-19 situation, three instances (12%) simultaneously exaggerated and downplayed the severity of the situation and one error was neutral. One error exaggerated COVID-19 vaccine risks. The CDC was notified about the errors in 16 instances (64%), and later corrected the errors, at least partially, in 13 instances (52%).
The authors searched for the errors by reviewing CDC publications, press releases, interviews, meetings and Twitter accounts. They also catalogued mortality data from both the National Center for Health Statistics and the CDC Covid Data Tracker and compared reported results.
They concluded that “a basic prerequisite for making informed policy decisions is accurate and reliable statistics, even during times of uncertainty”. They note a need for greater diligence in data collection and reporting. They also recommend that the federal entity responsible for reporting health statistics “should be firewalled from the entity setting policy due to concerns of real or perceived systematic bias in errors” – in this instance, towards exaggerating risk.
Here are the 25 errors they found:
February 26th 2021:
- MMWR stated that during the study period, the seven-day moving average of cases identified by PCR or antigen testing ranged from 152 to 577 cases.
- Multiple errors. Reported case rates during the study period were described as a seven-day moving average of cases per 100,000 persons including PCR and antigen cases, but the paper actually reported the raw seven day moving average (without adjusting for population) and for PCR only (not including antigen tests).
- From: MMWR
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
July 26th 2021:
- Delta Variant is as contagious as chicken pox.
- Delta is not as contagious as varicella. The CDC overstated Delta R0 and understated chicken pox R0 (Delta estimate was overlaid directly on a New York Times graphic).
- From: CDC slide deck
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: All
July 27th 2021:
- 4% of COVID-19 deaths are in children 0-17.
- Actual number was 0.04% based on original CDC estimated data. When the estimated data were updated later, the percentages were not updated. The actual percentage based on the updated data was 0.07%.
- From: COVID-19 website
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
October 15th 2021:
- “COVID-NET data for the week ending Sept. 25th show that rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations in children ages 5-11 years are the highest they’ve been.”
- COVID-NET hospitalisations were already falling from Sept peak. Rate was 1.1 in week ending Sept. 11th and Sept. 25th. (Now week of Sept. 11th shows 1.2),
- From: Twitter @CDCgov
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
October 27th 2021:
- “CDC Director Walensky said “there have been 745 deaths in children less than 18.”
- As of 27/10/21, NCHS data showed 558 deaths with COVID-19. Final NCHS data shows 679 pediatric deaths with COVID-19 through Oct. 30th, 2021
- From: White House Press Briefing
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
November 8th 2021:
- Among ages 0-17, CDC’s reported rate of symptomatic illness was [more] than the total infection rate (asymptomatic + symptomatic –
an impossible claim), and this error occurred among children (infection rate also fell only for children from May 21st to Sept 21st estimates). - Estimated infection rate was 35,490 per 100K, not 29,885 per 100K (symptomatic illness remained at 30,253 per 100K).
- From: COVID-19 website
- Risk: Neutral
- Concerns: All
December 20th 2021:
- Omicron makes up 73% of new infections in the U.S.
- Error with Nowcast estimate, a week later they revised to 23% (outside the previous 95% CI).
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: All
February 24th 2022:
- COVID-19 hospitalisations had a sudden over-1.6-fold increase in Georgia per HHS/CDC data.
- Very likely a dramatic multi-week increase was due to imputation error on behalf of the reporting state or municipality, yet this was not audited or detected.
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: All
March 15th:
- Paediatric deaths on the Data Tracker demographics page were overstated while adult deaths were understated.
- On 15/3/22, CDC removed 416 paediatric deaths from Data Tracker from 1,755 to 1,339 (still overstated) and almost 72,000 adult deaths, blaming an algorithm for classifying deaths as COVID-19 related.
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Mixed
- Concerns: Both
June 17th 2022:
- COVID-19 is a top five cause of death in children of all age groups.
- Pre-print had inaccurate data, and CDC chose the most extreme version of the flawed data. Specifically, for COVID-19 it used cumulative counts (which spanned more than two years), and death was attributed if it was one of any multiple cause of death, whereas for other causes of death, they used only a single year, and attributed it only if it was the single underlying cause of death).
- From: ACIP Meeting
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
June 23rd 2022:
- At a White House COVID-19 briefing, CDC Director Walensky cited the claim that COVID-19 is a “top five cause of death” in children
- Flawed pre-print, authors already acknowledged that fact, and COVID-19 was not a top five cause of death.
- From: White House Press Briefing
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
June 27th 2022:
- ACIP website includes the “top five cause of death” claim
- Flawed pre-print, authors already acknowledged that fact, and COVID-19 was not a top five cause of death.
- From: ACIP website
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
August 9th 2022:
- COVID-19 has killed 1,500 children ages 17 and younger.
- As of 10/8/22, NCHS data showed 1,201 deaths with COVID-19. As of 5/2/23, NCHS data shows 1,323 paediatric deaths with COVID-19 through August 6th 2022.
- From: Twitter @CDCgov
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
August 12th 2022:
- “COVID-19 hospitalisations for children and teens are increasing again in the U.S.”
- CDC hospitalisation data showed hospitalisations had peaked two weeks prior, on 29/7/22.
- From: Twitter @CDCgov
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
August 20th 2022:
- CDC Excess Mortality Dashboard overstated recent deaths in North Carolina and Connecticut.
- Model for weighting due to death reporting lag was poorly adjusted.
- From: CDC Excess Mortality Dashboard
- Risk: Exaggerated risk of all-cause mortality
- Concerns: All
August 22nd 2022:
- Alabama paediatric hospitalisations had a dramatic single week increase from under 10 per day to over 50 per day.
- Very likely a dramatic single week increase was due to imputation error on behalf of the reporting state or municipality, yet this was not audited or detected.
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
August 26th 2022:
- CDC Data Tracker made a single week jump of 186 paediatric deaths and 1,679 adult deaths, which is unusually high for children and unusually low for adults.
- Incorrect death data. CDC corrected this days later, removing 173 paediatric deaths and adding 2,484 adult deaths
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Mixed
- Concerns: All
September 1st 2022:
- ACIP Chair Grace Lee repeated the “top five cause of death” claim in ACIP meeting to approve bivalent booster.
- Flawed pre-print was corrected two months prior. Unknown if ACIP committee informed.
- From: ACIP meeting
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
November 9th 2022:
- Florida paediatric hospitalisations had a dramatic single week increase from seven to 112 (seven-day new admissions).
- Very likely a dramatic single week increase was due to imputation error on behalf of the reporting state or municipality, yet this was not audited or detected.
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
December 30th 2022:
- XBB.1.5 variant reported at 41% of new infections in the US.
- A week later they revised to 18% (outside the original 95% CI).
- From: COVID-19 website
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: All
December 31st 2022:
- North Carolina paediatric hospitalisations had a dramatic single week increase from two to 19 (seven-day new admissions).
- Very likely a dramatic single week increase was due to imputation error on behalf of the reporting state or municipality, yet this was not audited or detected
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
January 13th 2023:
- Table 2 listed 62 events for children needing medical care as 13.9%.
- It should be 1.9%. It is correct in the text, but not the table.
- From: MMWR
- Risk: Exaggerated risk of vaccine
- Concerns: Children
February 9th 2023:
- Dr. Walensky testified before Congress that there had been “2,000 paediatric deaths from COVID-19”.
- This number comes from the flawed Data Tracker. Actual number is 1,400-1,500
- From: Data Tracker/ testimony
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
February 23rd 2023:
- ACIP slide claimed 1,489 paediatric deaths in ages six months-17 years.
- They did not remove 305 deaths in infants under-six months. Actual number should have been 1,184 using the NCHS data source cited on the slide
- From: ACIP meeting
- Risk: Exaggerated
- Concerns: Children
Through March 3rd 2023:
- Data Tracker continues to report too many paediatric deaths and too few adult deaths.
- Inaccurate mortality data by age group are updated weekly on the CDC Data Tracker Demographics page.
- From: Data Tracker
- Risk: Mixed
- Concerns: All
Read the full paper here.
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‘Settled science’ may well be an oxymoron.
But the experience of the last three years calls to mind a shorter word: a ‘lie’.
One of my favourite ‘settled science’ topics is Darwinism. I just love the unsettling and uncomfortable reactions of reminding people, especially science types, it’s just a theory that not all scientists concur with 🙂
https://www.hoover.org/research/mathematical-challenges-darwins-theory-evolution-david-berlinski-stephen-meyer-and-david
https://slate.com/technology/2012/10/evolution-of-cooperation-russian-anarchist-prince-peter-kropotkin-and-the-theory-of-mutual-aid.html
Yes, but we do not try to reorganise the global economy and spend hundreds of billions of taxpayers money based on what we think might or might be true about evolution. We ARE doing that with “climate change”. People are free to talk about evolution or black holes without being branded “enemies of science” or “deniers”.
Whenever I try to talk about the origin of the species I get called a Nazi eugenicist…
Agreed. And curious that so many aspects of GangGreenery were launched precisely by the National Socialist German Worker’s Party.
How humanity views itself within the framework of nature is relevant to anthropocentric perspectives and how we proceed with how ‘the crowd’ will continue to interact with nature. Part of the global economy reorganization is continued urbanism(smart green cities) and thus continued isolation/separation of humanity from nature…as opposed to spreading out and being part of nature and it’s natural order without a control system of intellectuals that consider humanity to be and accident that ended up being a parasite and then telling people who see themselves as part of nature how to live. AND in some circles you will be considered a heretic and banished for disagreeing with Darwinism and big bang… and on the other hand everybody is actually still free to discuss climatology outside of the status quo…one just has to not use the technocratic/blackrock/vanguard media platforms. Check out…
https://judithcurry.com/
Anyone else finding the site suddenly full of dodgey click bait junk adverts? Strewn all over the article, top of the window, bottom of the window? So many that they’re often overlapping? And for scam like things such as non surgical fat removal, or the like?
Not what I expect from a reputable subscription news site. Has it been hacked?
None at all. No doubt it depends on your setup. If you look at the image below, it shows part of how I’ve got Firefox set up – note the tick box against “pop-up windows”. Loads of other things you can manipulate as required.
Thank you!
Yes.
When using my android phone the ads have invaded everything. Make it quite hard to navigate.
Not sure about my computer.
Is Toby aware?
Re “settled science”, just follow the money.
Opera browser is an alternative with ad-blocking built it.
I use Brave. No ads.
Use Brave Browser. I don’t see any crappy adverts – neither on PC nor Android.
Then donate directly to Daily Sceptic.
Of course, you could just install Brave Browser and not donate, but that would be cheap, and only the rich can afford cheap shoes.
But then you do, because you’re commenting!
Yes. I thought it was my system, but I suspect interventions…
Keep your anti-virus up!
Yes. Site appears to be hacked.
None at all. I’m using iOS Safari. It could be that something nasty had got installed on your browser perhaps? Not saying Safari is better at all, just that I’m not seeing anything so suspect it’s something specific to your set-up.
Try DuckDuckGo (DuckDuckGo — Privacy, simplified.). You can add it in as an extension to most browsers.
You can use it for searching instead of google which I recommend. Also, to control your privacy when visiting web sites. I use it and don’t get adverts or popups here.
I got the same thing on the Telegraph. Popups telling me that my McAfee subscription had run out (I don’t use it) and I should check my details. No doubt a phishing attempt. Turned on the DuckDuckGo privacy and no more popups from there.
Hey, this is an important thread!
Don’t kick it sideways with an irrelevant browsing problem!
That’s why they are now switching to ‘scientific consensus’.
Achieved by ignoring, cancelling and refusing to debate any scientific dissenters.
Religion’s a culture of Faith – just believe what you’re told.
Science is a culture of Doubt – question and test everything you’re told – even that which you’ve told yourself.
This is why politicians don’t like science and scientists – it’s all just too bloody slow and awkward for them and their little agendas.
Not to mention their tiny Arts Grad minds.
“Settled science” is an oxymoron. But a simpler explanation would suffice: The scientific method is predicated on uncertainty and embracing possibilities and the unknown, and once anything is claimed to have been settled, there is another word for it – dogma. It is no longer science if it is considered beyond question, since science is the systematized art of questioning everything to arrive at an ever-refined understanding of the phenomenon in question.
It is a highly typical uniquely human flaw to instinctively try to calcify our perceptions and interpretations into concrete and immutable meanings. And this kind of perceptual rigidity has reached into the arbiters of scientific discourse through the scientific age. The doctrine of neo-Darwinism, for example, has a death-grip on many academic institutions and is routinely taught as fact to students of the biological sciences when in reality it is a theory that has more recently been superseded by various other contenders.
Can’t remember when exactly, but sometime around Isaac Newton’s time a prominent scientific commentator of that era proclaimed that no further understanding of the life and the universe was necessary – only a refinement of that understanding. Along came Albert Einstein and threw a fairly hefty spanner in the works – unsettling “The Science” by doing more science!
So the claim of “settled science” is really nothing new under the sun, can be taken with a pinch of salt, and is merely the product, as most of this readership would agree, of an agenda-driven news media that so many mistakenly take as being representative of real scientific discovery. It’s not settled – it’s just become a fashionable meme.
‘The phrase ‘settled science’ has nothing to do with scientific truth…’
Agreed, and yet some science is settled. The earth is round, the solar system is heliocentric, the blood circulates, micro-organisms are agents of disease, the continents were once conjoined, the speed of light is constant for all observers,… I could, of course, go on.
It is settled and agreed that only cranks disagree with this settled science.
The triumph of the green maniacs is that they’ve achieved the same cranks-alone-dissent status for their theory of man-made climate change.
Some of the best articles in Daily Sceptic have come from this author, Dr James Alexander. I have not read one of his many articles that has intrigued and educated me and in many cases enforced my thoughts and beliefs. He is spot on with his remarks in this short piece and I have continually brought the subject of ‘settled science’ up as a nonsense – it is not science and it is not settled.
My own method of ‘getting’ to people on this subject is to bring it down to items that they can understand from the likes of that awful man, Attenborough. There are more polar bears than ever before; there is 18% more coral growth on the Great Barrier Reef and last Winter was the coldest Antactic winter on record. Nowadays, ordinary folk do not have a clue about statistics or understanding graphs – they only understand the Daily Mail’s headlines and nothing more and the BBC uses this apathy all the time to further their woke ideology.
We have a prolonged fight on our hands!
From an online lecture by very highly rated climate scientist William Happer, he quoted Shopenhauer who said:-
“All truth passes through three stages; First it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and thirdly it is accepted as self evident.”
Happer then said the truth that CO2 is not harmful, but is actually good for the planet is somewhere between the stages of ridicule and violent opposition.