Deaths from non-respiratory causes are projected to be a massive 10% higher than expected in 2022. Non-respiratory mortality typically varies little from year to year, changing by a maximum of just 1.3% in each of the six years from 2015 to 2020. However 2021 has registered a 3.72% increase and 2022 is projected to show a catastrophic 10.0% increase.
Because it is usually so stable, non-respiratory mortality is a useful way of showing that the ongoing excess mortality currently being experienced in the U.K. is unprecedented and unrelated to normal seasonal variation. It also shows that it has been happening ever since Covid vaccinations began in earnest in early 2021.
Respiratory disease (which is largely seasonal) is the largest component of variability in mortality statistics during the normal course of events. This means we can be justified in grouping all other mortality events together and terming them ‘core mortality’, regarding them as perhaps a better marker of the nation’s overall health. This is especially useful for the purposes of analysing the pandemic years, because Covid has replaced other respiratory diseases to some extent in the mortality statistics.
Looking at the pre-Covid data from 2015 -2019 it is possible to subtract the data for all respiratory disease (ICD code 10 J00-99), and arrive at a figure for non-respiratory mortality (NRM) for each week of the year. An average for the five pre-Covid years can then be calculated and compared with each individual year. Note we use the pre-Covid average as a baseline to avoid the unusual mortality of the pandemic years. (All data from the ONS.)
Here are the charts for those six years, 2015-2020, which demonstrate the relative stability of NRM statistics.
The large spike in non-respiratory mortality during weeks 14-18 of 2020 (the first five weeks of the pandemic), which resulted in 11,817 non-respiratory excess deaths compared to the 2015-2019 average, is likely a result of Covid death counting errors plus some deaths due to pandemic interventions (withdrawal of treatment, neglect, isolation etc.), as the rest of the year proceeds completely normally.
Turning to 2021 when the vaccination rollout began, the situation with non-respiratory mortality begins to change to a very erratic pattern from week 10, and then starts to show a steady increase above normal pre-Covid patterns in the latter half of the year.
This trend then continues into 2022, with a gradually increasing excess above the pre-Covid average developing as the spring and then autumn booster campaigns are rolled out.
There is one more significant factor to take account of, namely mortality displacement, as I have mentioned in previous posts. Overall mortality in 2020 was 81,478 above the five-year pre-Covid average, and in 2021 there was a further excess mortality of 53,263.
2022 is projected to end with another 42,500 excess deaths. All this excess mortality puts downward pressure on subsequent mortality statistics as it brings deaths forwards, especially because of the concentration of excess deaths during the pandemic on the elderly cohort of the population, when the average age of death has been around 83 years old.
In order to correct for this displacement, the actual mortality figures have to be revised upwards by a displacement factor of approximately 9% of the excess mortality per year, to allow accurate comparison of the mortality statistics with previous years. Doing this for the three years of the pandemic, the revised charts look like this.
Note that as the population as a whole ages, more deaths are expected each year so mortality statistics are ideally altered to reflect this trend, i.e., are age-adjusted. However the acceleration of untimely deaths of the oldest part of the population during the pandemic has significantly changed the median age of the population so this may be unnecessary.
Putting all three years together on one chart and condensing the data to four weekly aggregate figures to smooth out weekly fluctuations in the statistics, it is easy to see how the problem with excess non-respiratory ‘core’ mortality has been growing since 2021, rather than receding. 2021 shows a 3.72% increase and 2022 is projected to show a 10.0% increase. To state the obvious, this is not normal.
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Lawrence Fox makes a very valid point and in an amusing way. Class!
This is an absurd and anachronistic discussion. You should be ashamed of yourself.
I don’t care if the next archbish is white, black, or purple with pink polka-dots. I just want him to be a Christian.
That will never happen.
Then I’m your man. I’m not ordained, but I’m happy and prepared to be fast tracked.
There are other similar petitions that could be pushed to make the stupid “elites” suffer the consequences of their malevolent policies.
For example, a petition for banning private jets from British airspace. Let Bill Gates and all the other Davos oligarchs take an EasyJet to reduce their carbon footprint.
Good idea, perhaps every MP should be forced to pay for a heat pump to be installed at their own homes at their expense without subsidy.
Then they can get back to us after a couple of years to let us know how great and efficient they are.
They would do it through blue lips and chattering teeth. When have you ever known a politician to admit they were wrong?
True enough but they do sometimes shift course whilst pretending it was always the plan.
They have tried for two thousand years to destroy the Christ energy and they still haven’t succeeded and never could. The mystery of Golgotha can only occur once on this earth and the Christ impulse is ever growing. They don’t understand the mytsery of the ethereal world, the power behind the sun. If you want to survive and fight this force then you need to undestand this level of reality. If you understand its true majesty then you will understand the enormous efforts to debase it.
The sun is nuclear fusion, simple as that.
How do you know, did The Science tell you?
To be an atheist, one must recognise belief.
Of all the world views that exist atheism is by far the most bat shit crazy, the most demonstrably false.
Agnosticism is perfectly reasonable, atheism is arrogant twattery of the first order.
Actually, having an imaginary friend as an adult is extremely irrational.
Atheism is just the absence of belief in God.
Energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can change between types.
There are several types of energy, none of which is called “Christ”
Do you mean “kinetic”
The energy of belief is converted from something.
I wonder how efficient these conversions are in terms of energy retention…..
That energy continues with peoples faith throughout their lives. So pretty good I imagine.
His energy is utterly Ahrimanic as a Christian I see him as an embodiment of the furthest away possible. Utterly stupid and vacuous. Untold damage to the spirituality of this country.
Welby looks and acts like such a weedy wonk that CofE folk should be suing him for bringing their religion into disrepute.
His ‘muscular Christianity’ has atrophied (if he ever had any).
Made his money in the Oil industry, saw the light, and thought flagellating the rest of the country for his (imaginary) sins would smooth his path to the promised land.
I’m not religious, but I have a great deal of respect for people who are.
But Welby and the rest of his bejewelled cronies don’t represent faith to me, and I’m damn sure Jesus wouldn’t have been impressed with Welby’s medieval pretensions, nor his pompous opinions on what humanity should or shouldn’t be doing.
Save souls mate, that’s you job.
Gok Wan for archbishop of Canterbury, sure Gok is an atheist but that hasn’t impeded Welby.
As amusing as it is, there’s a serious side to this. Those amongst us unfortunate enough to be born with ‘white’ skin are branded as supremacists and endemically racist by some (very few in reality) in our society.
Our forefathers fought with and died for other cultures and races, to ensure this country wasn’t a white supremacist Aryan satellite of, amongst others, Nazi Germany where the solution to any ‘race problem’ was genocide.
Personally speaking, in terms of reparation, it makes up for any historic slavery.
You have to give it to the Nazis none of this sort of woke bollocks or mass immigration, or Islamisation would be taking place on their watch.
And the bankers would have been neutered, and communism would have been destroyed much earlier.
Apart from that they were poopers.
I’d rather being fighting this fight than worrying I might be next for the gas chambers because I didn’t fit the preferred profile of one man.
There were no gas chambers the physical evience proves this,that story was simply war time propaganda designed to demonise the German National Socialists and to justify their brutal treatment post war.
There was a Holocaust (an offering by fire) the Holocaust was the RAF and USAF dropping millions of tonnes of incendiary bombs on German civilian targets.
As ever the victor writes the history books.
The ovens you can now visit in Auschwitz were hurriedly built post war then?
That makes sense…….
I guess the lady I met with a number tattooed on her arm, who described conditions there, was a figment of my imagination as well.
Crematoria aren’t gas chambers.
A number tatooed on an arm is not evidence of a gas chamber or mass murder.
The concentration camps operated by German National Socialists did have crematoria in order to dispose of corpses, no one disputes this.
The claimed homicidal gas chambers that are on display at Aushwitz were built by the Soviets after they seized control of the camp from the Germans.
A young Jewish historian called David Cole produced a documentary about the homicidal gas chamber claims of Aushwitz, he concludes that there is no evidence to support the claims of mass murder quite the opposite.
At the end of the documentary Cole interviewed the camp museum director Dr Piper.
Dr Piper admitted that the ‘gas chamber’ that was on display as being as original was of Soviet construction.
The documentary is called ‘Cole goes to Auschwitz’.
You can watch this documentary at Holocausthandbooks.com along with numerous others that explain how the official narrative is demonstrably false.
The reason you believe the Holocaust lies is because you have been indoctrinated into believing the story in much the same way that millions of people have been indoctrinated into believing the covid lies.
The lie serves the interests of powerful people.
Some of the Holocaust claims may well be exaggerated.
But enough incontrovertible evidence exists to show that Hitler wanted the Jews in Germany and conquered lands disposed of, and that various organisations in Germany killed many of them in various ways.
You aren’t arguing that because there may be some doubt about the precise usage of currently-existing buildings, Hitler actually liked the Jews, are you?
He’s entitled to his opinion, but basing it on a single documentary in light of innumerable witnesses who have testified under oath about it, his claims are somewhat ill considered.
‘He’s entitled to his opinion, but basing it on a single documentary.’
No Scot, I am basing my views on numerous documentaries (putting the view of both sides forward), numerous books (putting the view of both sides forward), numerous podcasts and presentations (putting the view of both sides forward).
You are correct in that I did only refence one source in favour of the view that I accept as true, I think citing a Jewish historian calling BS on the Holocaust narrative is provocative and will hopefully cause some people to think and hopefully watch the documentary for themselves.
The cite Holocausthanbooks.com is a richresource for anyone willingto entertain the possibility that the government has lied bout this is as well.
‘You aren’t arguing that because there may be some doubt about the precise usage of currently-existing buildings, Hitler actually liked the Jews, are you?’
No I am not.
‘But enough incontrovertible evidence exists to show that Hitler wanted the Jews in Germany and conquered lands disposed of’
Prior to the start of WW2 hostilities Hitler had an agreement with the German based Jews that would see them being shipped to Palestine so they could live there.
The arrangement was called The Transfer Agreement, they evenminted a commemorative coin with the Star of David on one side and the Swastika on the other.
So yes there is clear evidence of a programme to expel them, there is no credible evidence of a plan to exterminate them.
I can promise you, the woman I met had no reason to lie to me or anyone else present. Indeed, it wasn’t until I asked her about the tattoo (much to my wife’s horror) that she talked to us about it.
It was about 30 years ago and she could derive no benefit from lying to us. She was part of a small catering team at a birthday event in an old Tudor mansion we stayed at. She described how, as a young child she watched her mother, father and older siblings being taken to the gas chambers as they got off the train. She never saw them again.
What did the Germans do with these thousands of people packed onto a single train if not dispose of them?
Did she deliberately have her arm tattooed so some random stranger would ask her about it and she could spin a yarn?
Crematoria are not lines of ovens that can fit numerous corpses in each of them. What other prison do you know of, that has multiple ovens?
Surely that would be the case in British POW camps for Germans, wouldn’t it?
There seems to be no mention of multiple ‘crematoria’ in the American concentration camps where 120,000 Japanese residents of the country were forcibly interned.
She described events there very precisely.
Have you heard of the Sainted David Attenborough and the Walruses?
No one disputes that some inmates were tatooed with inmate reference numbers – this is not proof that millions of people were gassed in homicidal gas chambers.
The concentration camps were real, they were large complexes more like towns than a prison. I know of lots of towns with numerous crematoria ovens.
The Germans are known for their technical skills and efficiency, if they wanted to dispose of corpses on an industrial scale they would have used a blast furnace, this method would be far more fuel efficient and quicker.
Are you unfamiliar with the Rhine meadow death camps?
After Allied victory around 1.5 to 2 million German POWs and civillians were held in open air camps along the Rhine for years. They had no access to sanitation, sufficient clean water, proper food or medical care, the Allies murdered tens of thousands this way. They had sufficient POW camps and resources to cater for these prisoners but they opted to murder them instead.
I believed all of the standard narrative on this topic until I was chllenged to listen to the case for the defence. When I listened I realised that the standard narrative is a lie.
The Allies needed a propaganda tool to help demonise the German National Socialists and some cover to excuse their own war crimes such as fire bombing civillian targets.
For the record I prefer an originalist view of the American Constitution as a form of limited government, I do not approve of the statist form of government of the German National Socialists from the WW2 era.
No evidence? Apart from the eye witness testimony of the incarcerated that is.
If you accept only the official government approved narrative and refuse to listen to the case for the defence, to do some of your own research, then you will believe as you believe.
The same point could be made regarding covid.
You, Mr. Tea, are complete moron.
You Mr Beowulf have been propagandised into believing a lie.
In the 1950s I lived in what was then called West Germany. Members of my Dad’s regiment liberated one of the camps and I twice visited Belsen, which was nearby. We also had weekly visits from a German national (who acted as an interpreter following the end of hostilities) who collected our English newspapers and magazines and stayed for a chat. None of these people were the mouthpiece of the Government yet they confirmed what happened. You, on the other hand, watched a documentary.
None of which provides proof of six million people being murdered in homicidal gas chambers.
Your National Socialism has been noted.
‘For the record I prefer an originalist view of the American Constitution as a form of limited government, I do not approve of the statist form of government of the German National Socialists from the WW2 era.’
Your inability to read has been noted.
Your National Socialism is quite obvious, given the rest of your posts contradict your excerpt.
And don’t imagine for a moment Hitler hated communist’s. He had signed a non aggression treaty with them prior to WW2 and only turned on them for the oil he needed to keep the war going.
Nope.
Hitler realised that the Soviets had amassed a colossal war machine that was being positioned to attack him.
Operation Bardarossa was a premeptive strike.
And the purpose of Russia attacking Germany would be?……….
To conquer Germany and incorporate them into the Soviet Union, just as the USSR conquered other nations and absorbed them.
My understanding is the only country the USSR invaded was Poland, along with Germany in 1939.
Then in 1941 Germany attacked Russia.
It wasn’t until Yalta in 1944 that the USSR made territorial agreements with the allies.
You might like to learn about the Winter war where the USSR invaded Finland in 1939.
Have you ever wondered why the UK and France etc declared war on Germany after they had invaded Poland but did not declare war on the USSR when they invaded Poland a few weeks later?
Have you ever wondered why the UK and France would not declare war on the USSR after they invaded Finland a few months after they invaded Poland.
Why were the Allies completely at ease with the Soviets attacking European nations?
“the oil he needed to keep the war going.”
Exactly what war did he need to keep going in June 1941?
The one he started on the 1st September 1939.
I’m beginning to wonder whether Mr. Tea who claims that the Holocaust never happened and Nearhorburian who I seem to recall, claimed that there never was a moon landing, are on this site posing as sceptics for a reason – that of discrediting the rest of us.
Yes, Hitler learned a lot from Marxism and copied the methods of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
The Nazis had a Muslim SS Division.
Yes they did, they also had Indian troops and pretty much every European nation had troops fighting for the GermanNational Socialists.
The last division left defending Berlin consisted mainly of French troops.
No, the Nazis were the ultimate in cancel culture.
Wokeism is from German philosophy, as is Communism.
Hitler was Islam’s favourite infidel too.
National Socialism and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics are equally evil, both coming from Kant, Hegel and Marx.
‘Wokeism is from German philosophy, as is Communism’
There was me thinking Marxism was the product of the Jew Karl Marx and Engels.
Wokism is the product of the French post modern thinkers, if thinkers is the right word.
No, wokeism, being Marxist is German philosophy, derived from Kant and Hegel.
Marx was a notorious antisemite too.
Marx was German, his philosophy German in essence.
E= MC^2
E= PT
I have no particular affection for any group, even if they have been sorely treated. I don’t know why anyone cares. We are all scumbags and we all get treated as such one way or another.I would say to anyone, forget race or religion issues because we won’t have those
luxuries anymore.
Back away from the glass Hombre, slowly.
Nonsense: multiculturalism is a luxury.
When things get hard people will be choosing sides.
I’m not on yours.
‘We are all scumbags’
Speak for yourself.
Thank you.
C of E? Total waste of time space and energy – hollowed out and wasted from within by atheist termites in Marxist Frocks!
There are a great many of us in the C of E who are not atheists.
The irony of the CofE to castigate a black trainee priest for challenging the idea that the church is institutionally racist is incredible. The church’s ecclesiastical authorities have fallen down Alice’s rabbit hole to a place of sheer insanity. They no longer represent anything that looks even remotely like genuine Christianity. Time to stop calling it a “Church.” Welby was chosen by David Cameron. Says it all.
The Church of England isn’t Justin Welby.
Wouldn’t Dick Emery have slotted in to the picture accompanying this article so well? Huge mouth filled with glowing white nashers, vicar’s collar, helping to offset all the dark faces.
Truly brilliant.
Welby ‘Shut up brown chap, how dare you tell me that I’m not racist, now fawk off’.
Alternatively, they could just hitch a ride on the trans bandwaggon and come out as black.
These self ordained f*ckers are so irrelevant who cares what they think or do?