Prior to the invasion on February 24th, Russia deployed approximately 180,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. (According to the U.S., it amassed “between 169,000-190,000 personnel”). The two separatist republics may have deployed another 34,000 troops (going by the 2021 estimates from the Institute for Strategic Studies). This makes a total force of 214,000 men.
How many have died or been wounded since the invasion began? (Note that ‘casualties’ is typically defined as ‘dead plus wounded’.)
As The Economist notes, there are several different ways to estimate Russian casualties, and none is wholly reliable. You can rely on secret Russian intelligence, use Ukrainian contact reports from the battlefield, or make inferences based on destroyed equipment.
The Ukrainian Government claims Russia has suffered about 55,000 “combat losses”. It’s not entirely clear whether this figure includes the wounded. But it almost certainly doesn’t, since otherwise it would probably be an underestimate – and the Ukrainian Government has no incentive to underestimate Russian casualties.
On July 20th, the CIA Director claimed Russia had suffered about 15,000 dead and another 45,000 wounded. His British and Estonian counterparts apparently concurred with this assessment. The 15,000 figure is not directly comparable with the 55,000 figure, since the former only goes up to July 20th, whereas the latter covers the whole period.
However, other evidence suggests the CIA’s figure is closer to the truth.
Since the invasion began, two organisations – Mediazona and BBC News Service Russia – have been tracking Russian deaths using a different method, namely reviewing publicly available reports, such as obituaries, social media posts by relatives, and statements by local authorities. (Their figures do not cover the two separatist republics.)
Up to September 9th, they count 6,219 Russian deaths. This figure is almost certainly an underestimate, since not every death is reported publicly. The compilers of the database suggest the true figure may be 40–60% higher. Which means that Russia may have suffered 9,329 deaths up to September 9th.
According to The Economist, the Donetsk People’s Republic militia, “unlike the Russian army, have faithfully documented their casualties”. And their official death toll is 3,069 up to September 15th.
As far as I’m aware, no official figures are available for the Luhansk People’s Republic militia. But if we assume they’ve experienced the same death rate as the DPR’s militia, that would equate to 2,148 deaths.
Russia has also deployed at least 8,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group. US officials recently estimated that 5,000 such mercenaries had been killed, which seems very high. Taking into account wounded, it would imply the entire deployment had been taken out of action. Yet we know Wagner is still fighting.
Nonetheless: summing these four figures implies that, up to September 9th or thereabouts, Russian forces have suffered 19,546 deaths. This is broadly consistent with the CIA’s estimate for the period up to July 20th.
Note that the compilers of the above-mentioned database were able to identify the date of death in about two thirds of cases, and they find the number of daily deaths has decreased substantially in recent months (though this may not apply to Wagner and the two Donbas militias).
In most cases, they were also able to identify the deceased’s region-of-origin, and they find that Russia’s poorest regions have experienced the highest death rates, while Moscow has experienced one of the lowest. This finding is consistent with claims made by Western intelligence.
The typical ratio of wounded to dead is 3:1, and The Economist believes this is about right for Russian forces in the Ukraine War. Although U.S. forces have seen higher ratios in recent conflicts (i.e., more wounded), the fighting in Ukraine has been particularly tense and Russia has worse battlefield medicine.
Overall then, Russian forces may have sustained 78,000 casualties up to the beginning of September. This figure does not include soldiers missing in action or those taken prisoner. It represents more than a third of Russia’s initial strength.
Update: I stated, “The compilers of the database suggest the true figure may be 40–60% higher”. It appears what they actually meant was that their estimate may be 40–60% of the true figure – i.e., the true figure may be 67–150% higher. Taking 100% higher as a middle value, this would mean 12,438 Russian soldiers had died by September 9th, and that Russian forces had suffered 22,655 deaths in total.
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The short answer is enough to have to mobilise the general population and start a draft.
Very depressing.
They are not mobilising the general population. They are specifically mobilising reservists.
It is Ukraine which is mobilising the general population, and they have recently included women
I have to correct myself. The conscription of women is currently being rubber-stamped by the Ukrainian government; it is not law yet.
It’s amazing what I’ve learned reading and and listening to this stuff, and I’m not sure you would call it all useful…LOL!…….but because it’s designated a Special Military Operation it would currently be against Russian Law to use conscripted soldiers….
Very difficult to get accurate casualty figures due to the disparate nature of ‘Russian’ forces deployed
The ‘Russian’ army in Ukraine is not a single organisation, but several factions with their own commanders, control system and structure.
Prigozhin/Wagner answers to Putin personally.
Troops from the DNR and LNR
Regular Russian Army
Rosgvardia National Guard (OMON Special Forces report direct to their Director Victor Zolotov)
Kadyrovite Chechen Militia
The BBC found a thousand killed Russian Army officers just from open source data and analysis. In all, 750 of them are low-ranking officers, lieutenants, captains. All are those who work “on the ground” – directly in charge in combat. Typically officers represent 8%-11% of losses.
Make of that what you will.
And of course, if the BBC said it ………
‘The journalists compiled the statistics based on reports from local authorities, the media, and relatives of the dead (while, as noted, heads of Russian regions are speaking publicly about the deaths of military personnel with increasing frequency). They estimate that their list contains 40-60% fewer names than the actual number who’ve been buried in Russia.
Of the 5,701 identified Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine, 966 (17%) were officers. Junior officers accounted for the largest share of casualties. Four generals and 34 colonels were also among the dead.’
BBC 19 Aug 22
‘“I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in the less than six months. Now that is a combination of killed in action and wounded in action, that number might be a little lower, little higher, but I think that’s kind of in the ballpark,”
US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kahl 08 Aug 22
Everyone on here is, of course, entitled to their own opinion.
Due to the size of the Ukrainian front, Russia has been well short of troops since day one.
Mobilising 300,000 reservists won’t change that. What equipment will they receive, I wonder?
As you say, everyone here is entitled to their own opinion. The figures you are quoting are just that – someone’s opinion.
That is why I make clear where the figures come from, obviously.
In all previous international conflicts I recall breathless reports from flak-jacket clad reporters on the front line, some embedded with the troops. We got a sense of life on the front line from them.
What has been completely absent in Ukraine has been live reporting from independent journalists (and even Ukrainian journalists) commenting on the successes of the “home team”.
I can’t help wondering what Ukraine and the Western media are trying to hide by preventing such reporting. All that is published comes fully sanitised from “official Ukrainian sources” aka Zelensky’s script writers.
There is however plenty of reporting from the other side of the border, by Western and Russian journalists which of course is never mentioned to us, but which can be found on-line.
Well, going back to Vietnam, it was arguably the reports of embedded reporters that scuppered the war.
And it has been said that WWII couldn’t have been won with the same type and amount of reporting and if the ‘home front’ had their eyes glued to the telly.
Make your own mind up what truth there is in that and whether a good or bad thing.
Me, if I was in Putin’s shoes, I would want what was on Russian telly controlled strictly as possible.
Plenty of ‘reporting’ from the other side of the border which you do not quote, reference.
Why would that be?
Here you are:
‘Everything is simple. “Musicians” [nickname for Wagner PMC] arrived in the LPR around mid-March. The approximate number of their contingent at that time was up to 1,500 people. It’s a regiment, but a castrated one: there is a lot of infantry, little armor, artillery and other things. They were not prepared for such a war. Their task was to chase negroes and to take away oil fields in favor of hucksters.
In the very first couple of weeks, they suffered huge losses in Popasna – killed, wounded and refuseniks.
Gradually, in the course of hostilities, the professional “dogs of war” started running out, and there was nothing to replenish them with. Thus, the task has been set, the budgets have been assigned, the Star of the Hero of Russia has been awarded, but there are not enough performers.
And that is why social networks are now flooded with military-romantic advertisements for PMCs, designed for juvenile fuckers, and a search goes through prisons. Requirements for applicants are sharply reduced. Because not professionals are required, but meat for the assault infantry.
Of course, the recruitment of convicts in PMCs is not an alternative to mobilisation. They carry out assault missions in very narrow directions there. The entire burden of the war is being carried by the very “iron helmets” – the mobilised men of the LPR and the DPR. And here a question should be asked to the owners of Prigozhin: how did it happen that you started the war, having cartoons instead of a combat-ready army, since now you have to recruit repeat offenders?’
Blog “Leon 1967” Russian LiveJournal 17 Sept 22
RT (which we are not allowed to read) reports Russian Defence Minister says Russian deaths are 5 937 versus Ukraine deaths 61 207.
it also reports Russia to begin partial mobilisation and that Russian forces have thwarted attempts by Ukraine to mount an offensive in southern part of the Country.
This is a ‘Truman Show’ War, and I don’t believe anything either side says…
The only conclusion I draw from this article is that there has been a great deal of unnecessary human suffering. I assume the author, in the interests of balance, will similarly address the quantification of the numbers of dead and wounded Ukrainians in this tragic and unnecessary conflict.
where are the peace brokers?
Shades of “Life of Brian”?