The U.S. Society of Actuaries Research Institute has issued a report on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic which includes around 90% of all Group Term Life insurance, thus providing quite a broad picture of excess mortality among the insured during the period up to and including Q1 2022.
As might be expected, 80% of the excess claims over the period are related to COVID-19. In 2020, after the pandemic struck, but before vaccines were available, we see a surge in COVID-19 related excess mortality, but interestingly around a quarter of all the excess mortality is not COVID-19 related. This suggests that lockdowns and restrictions were already having a strong impact on mortality. The vaccination programme started in December 2020 but really took of in Q1 2021 when 172 million doses were administered. The cumulative growth in COVID-19 cases was much slower in Q1 2021 than towards the end of 2020, but interestingly we see a large spike in COVID-19 related excess mortality during this period.
The most interesting period in 2021 however is Q3, where not only COVID-19-related but Non-COVID-19 excess mortality spikes up to almost 9%, then falls in Q4 and remains at around 5% throughout Q1 2022, which is an alarming figure.
When those figures are broken down by age we see a staggering rise in excess mortality in younger age-groups, close to and even up to double the expected mortality for people between 25 and 55. The report does not provide a deeper analysis of this, such as breaking it down according to cause of death. So, what might cause the deaths of twice as many people in their prime of life compared with what might be expected in a normal situation? What was different?
First, the vaccine rollout in early 2021 was primarily focused on the older age groups while the vaccination rates for the younger ones started increasing in the latter part of the year, and this coincided with and was no doubt driven by increased pressure to get vaccinated, including mandates and relentless propaganda and ostracisation. So that could be a factor. Second, we must look to the harm done by lockdowns and restrictions, though this wouldn‘t explain this sudden spike in Q3 2021.
The report provides a useful comparison of the relationship between excess mortality and vaccination rates by state in two different periods. In July-September 2021, we see quite a strong inverse correlation between the two factors. But in the period October 2021 to March 2022, this relationship has almost disappeared. This result fits well with figures from other parts of the world which in January of this year showed how after the emergence of the Omicron variant the protective effect of the vaccines disappeared or even became negative.
The SOA report provides good data on mortality during the pandemic and it will be interesting to see how Q2 this year plays out, given that we see indications of worrying excess mortality not explained by COVID-19 in many countries. Further analysis, especially of the staggering mortality figures among younger people, is urgently needed. It is high time to recognise and honestly start focusing on the potentially devastating effect of the mass-vaccination drive.
Thorsteinn Siglaugsson is an economist, consultant and writer based in Iceland. You can subscribe to his Substack newsletter here.
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ESG is a contrived subject that belongs firmly within the Sociology field and therefore should be added to the curriculums of those places of “learning” within the tertiary sector that feel the need to peddle this crap.
If your business is dealing with interest rates, or making cars, or building homes or whatever then ESG is none of your workload and would certainly eat in to expensive management time whilst providing sweet F A in return for god knows what cost.
Those companies that feel the need to jump on the ESG bandwagon are simply proclaiming that they are badly managed. In these cases “go woke, go broke,” is just reward for management incompetence.
ESG, another disease of the age. A virus which kills poorly businesses.
You gotta laugh.
Curricula – but apart from that,yes.
Indeed. My apologies.
No need to apologise, huxleypiggles:
https://www.grammar-monster.com/plurals/plural_of_curriculum.htm
‘The plural of “curriculum” is “curricula” or “curriculums.”’
‘Both “curricula” and “curriculums” are accepted plurals of “curriculum.”’
The noun “curriculum” has a Latin root, which is the derivation of the plural “curricula.” “Curriculums” (which adheres to the standard rules for forming plurals) is also an accepted plural.’
I prefer “curriculums”. Some people don’t care which is used:
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/dr-wordsmith-makes-a-house-call-at-the-tower-of-babel-1099283.html
Wordsmith writes: When it comes to the behaviour of foreign plurals in English, there are two schools of thought. One maintains that you should stick to foreign rules – that the plural of “poltergeist” is “poltergeister” and the plural of “curriculum vitae” is “curricula vitae”. And the other – the Jack Straw school of thought, perhaps – thinks that immigrant words should obey English rules while they are here, and that the plural of “stadium” should be “stadiums” and not “stadia”.
Dear Dr Wordsmith, And which school of thought do you belong to?
Dr Wordsmith writes: I belong to a third school, the A-Plague-On-Both- Your-Schools School, whose motto is: I couldn’t give a monkey’s.’
Many thanks. I too prefer the proper use of words, punctuation and grammar and in this instance I should have used “curricula” but as usual I was posting in haste (
).
On the topic of laughing, I did enjoy this mini clip. Let’s hope they’re verbalizing the general consensus, haha..
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/celtic-fans-sing-you-can-shove-your-coronation-up-your-a-347611/
That’s wonderful. Thanks Mogs.
Consolidation of a diverse banking market into a select few big players. Guess it will make CBDC’s easier to roll out.
Here in the UK we have seen similar consolidation with the energy market with a reversion to more or less the same old ‘big six’.
Net Zero appears to be concentrating the power and the wealth away from smaller players and into the hands of the elites.
“Net Zero appears to be concentrating the power and the wealth away from smaller players and into the hands of the elites.”
So for the Davos Deviants it’s all coming together nicely.
BlackRock does not permit anything that does not support ESG and DIE – they pull the strings
Well, it sure didn’t help.
But that bank now folded so quickly because the Feds signalled through their ridiculous SVB actions that your deposits are only safe with JPM and some other too big too fail banks and that at a ridiculous 100% regardless of deposit size: a bailout of the ultra-rich.
That’s why large deposits now flee regional banks and go the the biggies.
And the biggies then get to pick them up for free, as is custom for a fascist large company oligarchy.
The Bear, Stearns&co. takeunder actually served as the blueprint for these steals and the ones to come.
I doubt they have the self-awareness to understand, but highly paid executives charged with managing woke programs should probably be feeling nervous right about now.
Took most of my savings out of the bank and bought some property. Savings are just numbers on a spreadsheet and can be devalued at the whim of the market. I don’t want to be a victim of contagion and offered 60p in the pound. Like with the hoax pandemic, I don’t trust the authorities