Professor Carl Heneghan and Dr Tom Jefferson have launched a Substack newsletter called ‘Trust the Evidence’. As regular readers of this site will know, they are two of the most authoritative sources when it comes to COVID-19, as well as other viruses. Unlike many medical doctors and public health scientists, they are strictly guided by the evidence and call it as they see it, regardless of whether it complements or contradicts the prevailing consensus. The article below was first published on their Substack account, which you can subscribe to here. The staff of the Daily Sceptic strongly encourages all our readers to subscribe.
Some of us started reviewing the evidence of the effects of physical interventions on the spread of viral respiratory infection two decades ago. The Cochrane review, now in its fourth update, concludes there is still uncertainty about the effects of face masks.
“Physical interventions” include hand washing, distancing, disinfection and barriers, including all types of masks.
SARS-CoV-2 had not been identified when we did the last update (published in November 2020), so we reviewed what physical interventions did to affect the spread of influenza and influenza-like illness. Most identify these two as “Flu”. We have already shown the lack of knowledge that accompanies this microbiological simplification.
Influenza-like illness is a syndrome made up of a constellation of signs and symptoms: fever, cough, runny nose, malaise, fatigue and so on, with which everyone is familiar. It is a multiagent syndrome caused by scores of known viruses (including seasonal coronaviruses) and many more which are unknown; Influenza (which cannot be distinguished clinically from the rest of influenza-like) illness is caused by two specific viruses (Influenza A and B) that can be diagnosed only after a laboratory test.
Before the pandemic, clinical trials in widely different settings and using different types of masks show no clear-cut effect against Influenza-like illnesses and influenza.
Although trials of medical/surgical masks are logistically challenging, the message is unequivocal: they do not appear to do much. Their effect on the broader community is unknown. These are broadly the same conclusions of the only two available randomised trials of masks conducted on COVID-19.
In previous versions of the Cochrane review, we included observational studies; some carried out after the 2003 SARs-1 epidemic. These lower quality studies showed an apparent effect, which higher quality studies failed to confirm. This is not an unusual situation that we find ourselves in Evidence-based medicine.
Who should you believe? Those that espouse low-quality evidence and its certainties or those rely on higher quality trial evidence – as we did in version 4 – with its inherent message of uncertainty.
The bottom line for evidence is to address the uncertainty. Throughout this pandemic, many seem to have had difficulty coping with uncertainties; they have jumped on any evidence that provides an element of certainty – at the time, this can feel reassuring. However, we have a tried and tested way of dealing with uncertainty in science: randomised trials.
It is a terrible indictment of the current leadership that no such trials have been planned or done, those which are on the stocks have had problems with funding and recruiting enough participants, and some researchers have been subjected to malicious personal attacks.
Any government “following the science” should have sponsored a range of trials testing different types and mixes of physical interventions in various populations and settings. They should have mandated genuine scientific efforts to diminish uncertainty. But politics, social media and the fatal attraction of spurious certainty underpinned by low-quality studies seem too much to overcome.
Dr. Carl Heneghan is the Oxford Professor of Evidence Based Medicine and Dr. Tom Jefferson is an epidemiologist based in Rome who works with Professor Heneghan on the Cochrane Collaboration.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
And yet ‘he’ wanted another 4 years … or rather the Biden whisperers did.
Now that’s disinformation.
But why, exactly, do America’s real rulers want creatures like the Biden-dolt or the Harris-halfwit to be president of the United States? What’s the gain they’re hoping for?
But the puppeteer gets all of the control without appearing in public.
They’re just brainwashed, and have totally swallowed the relentless “Orange Man Bad” propaganda.
Despite the overwhelming evidence that the media lies like a cheap watch some people still switch on and watch it, and believe it.
As (Twain?) said, “It is easier to fool someone than to convince them they have been fooled.”
Now Orange Man is pretty far from perfect, but given the alternative he positively shines in comparison. And I don’t recall the division there is now under POTUS 45.
As an aside, if anyone fancies some mild entertainment, check out The Dor Brothers on YouTube. It’s absolutely stunning, and not a little unnerving.
Or Dark Brandon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ3r_qu7TWc
Lots of money obviously.
Because it’s a good legitimate cover for their behind the scenes looting spree
Poor old sod thought he was President of the USA.
I don’t think he even thought that!
So, and we have people… and listen, there are people who…. so. Ah shucks… And America, Medicare has foreign… Coming through the door of this great… Huh. Syria, Russia, Guatemala, Germany, Chile, the President has, er… It’s vital that the planet air y’see. Children need er… OK that’s me done here. God Bless! They’re telling me…. er…. now where was it… IT’S NOT RIGHT! KEEP … ER … Ok folks…
What worries me is just what the Biden administration is doing in its last days to compromise the Trump presidency.
We have the same mental incapacity problem here, but at the other end of the age scale. Our ‘leaders’ are immature adolescents who only have one skill, which is to shout out loudly everthing that their superiors have told them to…
And a total inability to practise critical thinking.
Peter Mandelson to be the next ambassador to the U.S;
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/peter-mandelson-uk-ambassador-us-donald-trump-b2667479.html
The whispering snake, as portrayed on Spitting Image.
“The extent of Jeffrey Epstein’s contact with former UK cabinet minister Lord Peter Mandelson is laid bare in a newly released report that describes repeated meetings between the disgraced financier and the politician he knew as “Petie”. The internal JPMorgan report from 2019, filed to a New York court on Tuesday, found that “Jeffrey Epstein appears to maintain a particularly close relationship with Prince Andrew the Duke of York and Lord Peter Mandelson, a senior member of the British government”.
https://www.ft.com/content/07238b43-48e6-4e7b-96d2-d50a4ada4646
Excellent that this has been published, just at the right moment.
The Dark Lord rises again.
Not just the White House. Almost all of the media also covered up his dementia.
It’s hard to decide where the biggest crooks and liars reside: politics, or the MS media?
They hid it during the 2020 Presidential campaign. He was already suffering from dementia when he was nominated, which is why they kept him locked in the basement until the votes were counted.
Votes counted and then the required additional votes printed and counted.
Nope they didn’t hide it. —-We could all see it.
Yes, “we” could all see it, but there are so many grifters and useful idiots in the USA and in the world who found it in their interest to ignore and go along with the lie.
Communists want power. It doesn’t matter to them if the power is competent. They are evil minded simpletons.
Given that Belgium prospered for many years with no government at all, it is possible to argue that cabbages, lettuces, octopii and other seers might make the best governors of all; benevolent despots that at least offer decent nutrition as expiation for policy blunders?
Dementia does not appear overnight and is progressive. It is certain his wife and family members and close associates knew this before he stood for election.
Anyone observing and paying attention – public, media – seeing the obvious signs during his Presidency would work backwards and realise this. The White House doctor would certainly have been aware from day one of the Presidency of his condition.
The cover-up started before the Primaries electing him as candidate.