There are two broad camps in the debate over why Russia invaded Ukraine. Call them the ‘Mearsheimer camp’ and the ‘non-Mearsheimer camp’.
Those in the ‘Mearsheimer camp’, notably John Mearsheimer himself, believe the primary motivation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was opposition to the actions of Ukraine’s post-Maidan Government as regards NATO membership and the treatment of ethnically Russian Ukrainians.
By contrast, those in the ‘non-Mearsheimer camp’ believe the primary motivation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was revanchism/imperialism on the part of Vladimir Putin. If I understand them correctly, they believe Putin would have invaded Ukraine sooner or later, even if we’d listened to the ‘Mearsheimer camp’.
Now, the ‘Mearsheimer camp’ has a straightforward plan for what Ukraine and the West should have done to avoid the present crisis. It goes something like this: Ukraine becomes a neutral state, recognises Crimea and the two breakaway republics in the East, and promises to respect the rights of ethnically Russian Ukrainians.
Of course, we can’t be sure that this plan would have worked. It’s entirely possible that even if Ukraine had done everything mentioned above, Russia still would have launched an invasion. (Note: I’m using “Ukraine” as a shorthand for “Ukraine and the West”.)
However, there’s one thing we can be sure of: Ukraine didn’t do those things, and Russia did launch an invasion. What we know, in other words, is that the Ukraine’s actual policy did not forestall Russian aggression.
Which raises the question: What do people in the ‘non-Mearsheimer camp’ believe Ukraine should have done instead? Even if we blame Russia entirely, an invasion cannot be considered a good outcome for Ukraine, so it’s surely worth asking how it could have been avoided.
From what I’ve seen, those in the ‘non-Mearsheimer camp’ spend a lot of time talking about how awful Putin is, but don’t seem to spend much time talking about what Ukraine should have done, given how awful he is. (Note: I’m not saying they’re wrong about Putin. Exactly how awful Putin is isn’t my main concern.)
Perhaps they would say that Ukraine should have asked for even more military aid in the years since 2014, knowing that an invasion was coming soon. Of course, if they’re right about Putin’s intentions, this might have spurred him to invade even sooner.
Or perhaps they would say there’s nothing Ukraine could have done to avoid a Russian invasion (short of allowing Russia to annex the entire country). To be clear: this would mean that every other possible outcome would have been as bad or worse than the current one, which seems difficult to believe.
But maybe they’re right. However, to justify not at least trying the plan favoured by the ‘Mearsheimer camp’ then requires an extremely strong argument. They have to explain why implementing that plan would have had worse consequences than Russian artillery fire raining down on Ukrainian cities and refugees fleeing the country en masse.
Until someone in the ‘non-Mearsheimer camp’ explains what Ukraine and the West should have done after 2014, or why the plan favoured by the ‘Mearsheimer camp’ wasn’t even worth trying, I’ll remain sceptical of their position.
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Given the number of people that still believe the elites charade of electoral democracy will fix all this, it’ll have to go pitch black before people remember light.
Excellent article by Jeffrey Tucker. And Elon Musk was right that it was “a set-up for a switch”. Remember that Biden explained his Vice-Presidential choice years ago by declaring that he was “just a Placeholder for disadvantaged ethnic minorities”. In other words, the plan was for him to stand down all along, to hand the US Presidency to an African-Indian woman, who is also an idiot, without the excuse of senility…
After watching Biden’s performance my conclusion is that he will be disposed of before the election although the replacement may not get more than about 4 – 6 weeks before voting commences. And I am not convinced the drug addicted alchy Kamala Harris will necessarily be the replacement.
“The elected portion of Government has been reduced to nothing but a veneer to be sanded down and changed from time to time, whereas the substance of Government consists of its deep, middle, and shallow layers that operate without any public control at all.”
And this certainly summarises the state of our own so-called “democracy.” We are bit players in nothing but a damned pantomime. Until somebody with a public voice starts to air this fact nothing will change, the shit show will get worse and the shyte will get deeper.
I dunno, there’s talk of him being replaced by the horrendous human/civil rights-abusing woketard psychopath, Gavin Newsom ( who reminds me of Turdeau’s ‘brother from another mother’ ), from plenty Americans on Twitter. I’m not following things closely though. But surely to God it won’t be Halfwit Harris!
Any of those 3 would be fine as it means Trump will likely win. Trump is the only western leader that will get rid of pretend to save the planet policies and that can only be good for us all. If our electricity bills are 3 times higher than Americans, then people will see the absurdity of trying to power the country on wind and sun
Anyone any idea what an ordinary member of the public can do to protect themselves and their family through these times?
If you can reduce, or better still, eliminate any debt. Move out of a city. Look to your resilience for energy supply, food and water. In the USA, buy a gun.
It’s going to get nasty.
On a practical level, invest in gold and silver leases and bonds with Monetary Metals in Arizona. I have no investment myself or vested interest, but the hope of this company is to bring back honest currency by bringing gold and silver back into use with interest paid in the metal itself.
On a deeper level, the main issue is the confusion between efficiency and intelligence that is now culminating in AI and AGI. Solve that one if you can.
It certainly looks like a set-up for a late switch. What I don’t understand is why Jill Biden would allow her husband to be humiliated like that …… she must really hate him.