We’re publishing an original piece today by Glen Bishop, the second year maths student at Nottingham University who often writes for Lockdown Sceptics about the shortcomings of the models that SAGE has relied on throughout this crisis. In this piece, he does a back-of-the-envelope calculation to work out how much it has cost the Government to save one life from Covid. Not surprisingly, it is considerably more than the £30,000 per Quality Adjusted Life Year that is the upper limit in the guidance the NHS relies upon when deciding how to allocate resources. Here is an extract:
Financially, the test for rationality of a response to public health is the one used, until the Covid hysteria, by the NHS and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). NICE is the body that decides whether treatments, technologies and medicines are beneficial enough to warrant their cost. The upper limit the NHS and NICE are willing to pay for a treatment yielding one extra quality adjusted life year (QALY) is £30,000. If £30,000 is the accepted limit that can sustainably be spent by society on giving an individual one extra quality year of life, then have lockdowns met this test? Even with Ferguson’s projections, they aren’t even close.
As mentioned, using the 500,000 deaths projection would lead to 372,000 lives having been saved. Conveniently the National Audit Office puts the cost of measures announced by the government by the end of March at £372bn. That would be, as readers will notice, £1 million per life saved. But again, taking QALYs lost per Covid death of seven years gives £143,000.
This is a cost per year of life nearly five times more than the £30,000 the Government previously deemed an upper limit for what was reasonable and sustainable to spend on treatments such as that for children’s cancer medication. Is it the Government’s or Professor Ferguson’s position that protecting somebody from Covid is worth spending five times more than protecting someone from cancer or do they not understand the realities of the policies they are implementing?
Worth reading in full.
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“Restrictions for an indefinite period”.
I suppose that is what will happen here then?
I don’t see why it wouldn’t, at least by SAGE’s logic.
It will indeed. The new normal is exactly this. They are telling us what is happening.
if you look at their deaths curve, basically they haven’t had many.
the vaccines dont stop you getting it or spreading it – we know that – only naturally gained immunity will do that
they are supposed to reduce symptoms
but they are unlikely to work well in those towards the end of their lives
isn’t the above exactly what we’d expect? why is it perplexing?
just to add
being an island and whatever else they did, they avoided it until 2021. so when they get infected, its going to be a later (ie milder but more transmissable) variant.
when we got the new more transmissable variant most people had already had covid of one form or another
We’d need more data to make a real judgment of what’s going on, i.e. age of those infected, age of those dying, vaccination status, time since vaccination, other factors, etc.
At the same time that the Seychelles have a serious outbreak, we’re busily congratulating ourselves on the success of our vaccines, which includes Astrazenica, which have been more effective than first thought.
The two scenarios don’t go together, so something clearly doesn’t add up. And restricting movement hasn’t solved the problem either.
It’s why comparison across different testing regimes that use different protocols based on different tests with the same fundamental problems, we just get noise.
Are people dropping dead more than normal?
Also, its clear this all happened post vaccine, is that just another coincidence? They appear to have had little before that.
i agree the more data the better
but the main difference between UK and Seychelles is that they had barely a case until 2021
we had reached herd immunity or thereabouts naturally
they are a naive population who happened to take some symptom depressing drugs. why wouldn’t they have an outbreak?
Seasonal effect.
The fact that most Brits don’t wear face knickers outside.
The fact that antisocial distancing is widely ignored.
Hence, large numbers of Brits have doubtless been exposed to the Dreaded Lurgie and acquired natural immunity.
But wait until the flu season comes round. Last year, all covvie, no flu. A miracle!
This year, all flu, no covvie, all thanks to the snake oil.
A miracle!
Meanwhile, the Seychelles’ economy collapses totally and they fall sobbing into the arms of the IMF.
….but they are unlikely to work well in those towards the end of their lives
They are unlikely to work at all, as their intended job is to cut huge swathes through the great masses of the human race. It should be absolutely clear to all by now, that the Covid event is a put up job and that it has a very ulterior motive.
Vaccines do stop you getting infected and they do stop you infecting others. The data show that clearly as does every other vaccination.
Sharpen your pitchforks ladies and gents…
The vaccine depresses the immune system.
People previously or currently exposed to COVID develop the actual virus immediately following vaccination.
Some of them die. Unnecessarily early.
THE END.
ROLL CREDITS.
The virus has once again defied expectations.
Specifically how? Are they seeing an unusual number of deaths in the Seychelles? Is all-cause mortality significantly higher there now, and was it in 2020, than a long-term average?
or done exactly as we’d expect.
forget the vaccines – they aren’t even supposed to reduce transmission – just prevent serious illness and deaths
seychelles avoided it until this summer. now they have a minor outbreak. what’s so perplexing?
Indeed – did the isolate the island and this is what happens when the open up? Bit like NZ and Australia have to come…
‘Minor outbreak’? No – just the usual over-detection of RNA fragments = casedemic.
It is DELUSIONAL arrogance to think that any viruses can be eradicated.
You mean it’s defied your beloved snake oil?
My insincerest commiserations, little fon.
Can we see excess deaths.
Can we see average age of deaths.
Who the hell knows what is heppening without data.
But we know that ALL the so-called vaccines just stop symptoms they DO NOT stop infection or ability to infect.
So why is anyone ‘shocked ‘ by this, its inevitable in an island that cut itself off now opened up because its economy is going down the pan. Soon to be NZ and Australia. And its bugger all to do with vaccines that don’t work.
It’s only perplexing if you think any of this madness bears any genuine relationship to realistic public health concerns. If you think that, it seems to me wishful thinking.
“Cases” ??????????????????????????????
Here we go again – round and round on the imaginary roundabout.
Here you go again, policing comments, an agent for the enemy
I saw “Here is their cases curve…” and was irritated like you @RickH
Working in israel as well https://in.news.yahoo.com/israel-brings-back-mask-rule-130434104.html
and coincidentally almost the same number of deaths per million as seychelles
ie not that many
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
so little naturally acquired immunity, so prone to having some more (as only natural acquired immunity will stop you getting and passing it on – the vaccines dont even claim that)
Maybe they have taken a ton of money to be ‘shut down’. Only the cabal can holiday there now
More Vaccine less immune system more illness.
This fight against asymptomatic symptoms is something to be admired really. They really don’t want people catching an illness that causes no illness!
A crude analysis of the shown data is peak cases (per million) 4000. Peak deaths (per million) 13. CFR = 0.32%. That’s eerily similar to influenza…
Nowhere near. You’re confusing IFR and CFR.
IFR for SARs2 is about 0.3
IFR for influenze is about 0.05.
Huh? Why on Earth would you think I have confused CFR and IFR?
My basic and crude ‘analysis’ has to be CFR right? Cases and deaths?
While Influenza CFR’s are subject to change and dispute, it is readily accepted that it is around 0.1%-0.2%.
This peer reviewed paper has it at 1.28%:
Epidemiological and clinical profile of Influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in Odisha, eastern India – ScienceDirect,
but we have to accept that testing for Flu is much lower than for the panic ridden testing environment we have surrounding Covid-19.
IFR’s for both has to be lower. And antibody testing regarding SARs2 suggests your figure of 0.3% is accurate.
I didn’t mix the 2 up though. I think you got hung up on the crude 0.32% figure I posted.
There is a complete failure of logic here. Cases are persistently high so they are going to continue measures which have failed to work. Well, that is in line with almost everywhere else – lockdowns don’t work.
And neither do ‘vaccines’.
Combine the two and you get the worst of all possible worlds.
So they want to crash their tourism and hospitality. Still going with the global green theme
The average age in Seychelles is 34.2. Who are the Covid patients overwhelming the hospitals, how old are they, and which vaccine did they have?
If, as I suspect, Sinopharm is causing enhanced disease people need to know about it.
Agree.Why can’t we have the age of the new cases? If most adults are vaccinated,there can’t be many around unvaccinated to sustain the outbreak. Was it the South african variant around from the beginning hence low effect of Astra?
The most important question is,are these cases unvaccinated children?
Starnge that we don’t have answers to such important questions.
This …
The majority of vaccinated people in Seychelles have received China’s Sinopharm vaccine – the one (IMO) that is most likely to cause ADE.
I attach one of the graphs from MissConceptions from Twitter.
Who knows what the cause is – smashed immunity from the vaxx leading to death, recording vaxx deaths as Covid deaths, ADE, all three? I don’t know if we will ever know because we can’t trust any of the data.
This is devastating for a local economy that’s almost 100% reliant on tourism.
Guessing our billionaire masters do not want any vistors to their holiday safe space?
This is so damn stupid. What else can be said?
The Seychelles didn’t have any cases until they started vaccinating everyone. Interesting…
It’s the big C again – coincidental.
bit like Gibraltar then
Perplexing?
THE BLOODY SNAKE OILS DON’T WORK.
What’s perplexing about that, for Chrissake?
THE BLOODY SNAKE OILS DON’T WORK.
Sorry to disagree with you (because I do agree generally) but I think they might actually be working perfectly as intended.
Maybe the answer is to create a new subculture for the unvaccinated (ie specifically excluding the vaccinated) that is so much more exciting and enticing than the enslavement offered to the vaccinated?
These jabs did not bestow immortality. OMG.
Choice of vaccine matters.
They chose the 2 with by far the worst efficacy against infection.
AstraZenica is spectacularly poor at preventing infection (Especially against 351 variants which is dominant there) and Sinopharm is significantly worse again.
UK has the same problem – spiralling cases as its relying on AstraZenica as its majority vaccine.
If cases are your worry, AZ wont help at all.
The. Chinese. Vaccines. Don’t. Work.
cases i.e. false positives i.e. mugs who get tested
Wonderful abuse of statistics – Total population Seychelles 1M , total deaths 63. In small population and low infection mortality data is often meaningless. Society has got to recognise that although epidemiologists like testing it is essential meaningless and social distancing and lockdown kills in other ways. Just wait until New Zealand starts to unlock!
Population not 1 m but around 100 000
Comparing the recovery/fading of the virus in the UK with the rise in infection in the Seychelles and then drawing the conclusion that the mRNA is better is NOT good science or science of any description. In the UK the virus faded away with much the same rate last year without vaccines and the vaccines roll out began before the natural peak of an endemic virus around Dec/Jan and the UK is on a different latitude to the Seychelles. What can be construed from this is that the AstraZeneca appears to make matters worse and this can be confirmed by looking at all countries where this has been injected. As for mRNA, we will not know what the long term affects are until at least two more ‘waves’, formerly known as seasons.
Seychelles an economy based on fishing, tourism and coconuts, Thats a lot of fish and cocnuts to sell on the open market to keep a countries economy going. Not going to happen is it? So self inflicted destruction and poverty will obviously make for healthy citizens, Well done that Government, congratulations the WHO. Bet the people in charge have secured their exit.
I always find it hard to swallow when someone writes an article about the ineffectiveness of the experimental biologicals. To save face they must throw in a salvo. In this case, it is some drivel about how effective the mRNA experimental biologicals are in comparison. I would refer the author to the CDC vaers and to the states (in USA) now experiencing one breakthrough case after another.
When developing their first mRNA product, BioNTech undertook 3 to 4 years of controlled testing before its release.
I wonder whether Covid 2 would have burned itself out before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was shown to be safe?
I have just received my third letter from the NHS/Imperial College telling me it is my last chance to take part in an important study to measure how many people have had Covid19 by testing me by sticking a 6in wand up my nasal cavity. You would have thought they would have got the message by now!
Power to the People
https://youtu.be/hy7bmdDGKZ8
Everything Geert Vanden Bossche predicted is coming true. Time for LS to revisit his theories?