OBLIGATORY NON-OBLIGATORY VACCINE
&
MEDICAL CIVIL WAR
Despite my best efforts to stay away from covid-news, I occasionally pick up on what is happening.
About a month ago, Macron announced that the vaccine will NOT be obligatory (though after about a week when other politicians had rushed to say it should not be).
Then, last Monday, the government pushed out a new draft law whose main objective was to make the "state of medical emergency" more permanent, giving the government enduring powers to "confine" people - healthy people - and pretty much do everything else it was so far been doing under the "temporary" emergency laws that were renewed every few months.
It is noteworthy that the Senate had been approving the "state of medical emergency" on the strict proviso that the measures were temporary and would not endure as they are in contradiction with both the French and European charters on human rights.
A veritable storm erupted - about as bad as the southern arm of Bella currently lashing the windows here. 24 hours later, the government withdrew the proposed legislation, with the thoroughly untrustworthy minister of health saying the government will re-introduce the law in a few months when "confidence in the vaccine" had grown.
France has one of the most sceptical populations re this vaccine. Polls for and against usually have mid 50s in favour and the rest against. This morning, as the Figaro led with the story of the first vaccination for a 78 year old lady, an informal poll on the website asking if people would take the vaccine currently has around 58% in favour and 42% against.
All that is needed is one or 2 stories of the vaccine "going wrong" or someone who is vaccinated, dying of covid, and the balance could easily and decisively tip.
Macron needs to tread carefully here. Elections are in April 2022 and if he goes for making the vaccine obligatory by the back door, as the withdrawn legislation had it, he could face a formidable challenge from Le Pen or a conservatives/republican challenger vowing to undo the law, and who could well win on such a ticket.
In the meantime, the Ordre de Medecins, effectively the French BMA, and as elsewhere reported on this forum, has barred its teeth and started disciplinary proceedings against a few high profile and usually well-respected figures, including the ubiquitous professor Raoult, who have had the temerity of questioning covid dogma. They are not going quietly and just before Christmas, Raould responded by filing a criminal complaint for harassment against the president of the Ordre.
All the signs are that next year is going to be explosive with legal battles galore, and which could spill on to the streets if things get nasty, especially as the financial damage to people's lives and livelihoods starts to bite hard.
Just over a year ago there was a complaining story in the press about how a majority of properties in the more quaint parts of town, such as the Marais, were actually operated through AirBnB with a minority of locals living in these areas. A lot of people had built small property empires on tourist rentals. These - no matter how undesirable to start with - have now all but collapsed. France was a leading world tourism destination, with an annual income of over USD 70 billion. Hotels have gone under and in the more touristic parts of town, cafes and bars are unable to cope, even when they are allowed to open, since they are used to an audience considerably in excess of the local population.
In the meantime, the speakeasy underground scene in Paris is growing. A couple of weeks ago there was even a report on one of the local TV stations about these establishments. As one journalist asked one regular client "aren't you afraid of getting caught?", the reply came: "no chance, the place is full of coppers."
I forgot to say (blame it on the previous evening at the speakeasy):
The proposed law wanted to make the vaccine conditional for people travelling within France, between one "department" and another.
The accusation was then levelled that the government is effectively making vaccination obligatory in all but name, and this was a prime reason for the uproar, and the proposed legislation being withdrawn.
2021 - HERE WE GO
As I anticipated (posted elsewhere in this forum - cannot remember exactly where), little will change in France and the relaxation of remaining rules, expected on 20 January, has been pushed back, but no further restrictions brought in, for now, except that the curfew, that starts at 6 pm for some eastern and south-eastern areas, will be expanded for 10 other departments in the east and south-east.
This was the announcement last night at a press conference by the thuggish PM and the thoroughly smug whipper-snapper of a minister for "health and solidarity". Macron appears to be staying above and away from this fracas, for now.
In general, it was a bit of carrot-stick. There was a general alarm about "numbers increasing" but no drastic measures with the two politicians at pains to distinguish France from its neighbours, especially the UK. At the same time as threatening further restrictions, they said they were keeping existing restrictions under review to possibly open up.
The government is on the back-foot for a perceived slowness in rolling out the vaccines. I do not think this is fair because a campaign of this magnitude cannot be set up so swiftly. In contrast, the UK, which appears to be moving faster, seems to be making it up as they go along. French bureaucracy is formidable. It is ponderous and slow to get going, but once it does get going, it is a relatively high achiever.
The remaining restrictions - closing bars, restaurants, cultural venues and gyms - were supposed to be lifted on 20 January but yesterday it was announced that bars and restaurants were being pushed back "at least" till mid-Feb, and the others will be reviewed for re-opening at the end of January.
All of this among a lot of defensive talk about the vaccines being on track, that everybody should take them and ignore any doubting Thomas.
None of this changes anything. Paris already has a fairly well established speakeasy culture in bars and restaurants that are operating secretly. And not so secretly, really, as a TV programme aired just before Christmas investigated the scene and found even police officers and gendarmes among the clients. (At one of my secret bars I even met and greeted a local town councillor.)
I have not read any accounts of any "raids" on such establishments and the French police operate "by consent" but in a different way from the UK. There are definite "no-go" areas for French police. Like intruding into the concrete fortresses of subsidised housing around the major cities, unless it is for something really serious. Otherwise, we all know what happens: violent riots, the minister of the interior visits, calls are made for everyone to calm down, and the police retreat after making a couple of arrests to save face. (It is then not unusual for some or all of the charges to be quietly dropped.)
The way the police handled the recent New Year's rave party is a perfect example (as I described in another post). The police showed up, the party was already underway, they made a token effort to break it up, were pelted and lost one van to a Molotov cocktail, and so decided to stand back and let the party carry on, then arrested a couple of people later.
Likewise, a "no-go" area is allowing people to quietly flaunt unpopular laws, as long as it is not done too publicly. No "covid marshalls" running around here.
So, life carries on. We cannot visit museums or go to gyms. And no fancy meals at any of the Grand Brasseries.
And while I cannot exercise in a gym, the schools are open and kids get to play sport - which is probably more important than me trying to burn off the foie gras. There is little to none of the UK paranoia here about schools. (Not a whisper from the unions.)
Other bits and pieces included:
"Seriously looking into" allowing ski resorts to operate normally for the February school break - a bit of a religion here for everybody to go skiing in February.
Support for closed businesses will continue.
Immediate paid medical leave available for anyone who is symptomatic (develops the disease, as opposed to just testing positive) as well as people who come in contact with such cases.
Elsewhere, the government attempt (I reported on earlier in this thread) to enshrine the "state of medical emergency" in permanent law, appears to have been abandoned, with them now saying that instead, they will seek to extend the "temporary" powers until June and then, possibly, until the end of the year. This will bring us nicely into the time zone of the next presidential election in April 2022. Will Macron want to fight this under corona restrictions or the threat of?
However, there were some disturbing trends in yesterday's press conference ...
The switch-blade of a man who is minister of health is a vindictive type, and it was palpable that he really was not happy being on the defensive over vaccines and I suspect he may lash out, as soon as he can, with more restrictions, if only just to prove he still can, and two avenues were alluded to:
A throw-away remark about possibly closing schools - which would be a major escalation - but the PM said this would be an absolute last resort.
A lot of talk about the "UK variant". Apparently, France has so far detected exactly 19 cases - a laughably accurate number.
So, watch this space. The French are not too receptive to the vaccine, with polls consistently showing over 40% will not take it.
Macron appears to be delegating the "health emergency" for the time being. No speech by him, although yesterday's announcements broke the timetable he personally gave in November.
In summary: on the one hand, maintaining the level of concern/fear about numbers of cases and keeping all restriction cards on the table. On the other, keeping under review opening up the remaining restrictions.
Everybody playing wait-and-see.
Thank you again teebs for your update..I wish we had secret cafes ect..
The police have been brutal here..
😥
Thank you again teebs for your update..I wish we had secret cafes ect..
The police have been brutal here..
😥
I have been wondering about that. I think it has to do with the relationship between populace and authority.
The French had a very bloody revolution some 230 years ago and various lesser - but still violent - insurrections since. 1830. 1848. 1871. Even 1968. Each time, the government was toppled - and within a whisker in 1968, when no less a figure than De Gaulle had to accept sweeping changes. So, people have become accustomed not just to confronting the state, but also winning.
In confronting state force, people here are prepared to "escalate", if necessary. They have learned that lesson. And governments know it.
Witness the young lads and ladies who gathered for that New Year's rave. They actually had projectiles and petrol bombs ready "just in case" and, when the police tried to stop the party, the missiles went into action: 3 officers were wounded and a police van destroyed by fire.
The commanding officer - interviewed in the papers - then had to make a decision: either back down and let the party go ahead, or bring in paramilitary re-reinforcements and start a serious battle in which many people will be injured and some possibly killed. And, knowing France, such a battle could very probably have led to further escalation with rioting on student campuses which could have spread to ... heaven knows where. We could have had an "anti-covid" revolt on our hands; the government, or parts of it, could have fallen. Again.
He decided to back down and that was accepted as the rational decision. (And I would not be surprised if that decision had been sanctioned up the chain of command.)
When you know the other side is prepared to up the ante, then everybody respects the red lines of each side.
Imagine what would happen in England if petrol bombs were launched. Uproar. Here, it is almost routine and police deal with it as standard risk.
In this case, there is also, I suspect, some latent background solidarity between the rank-n-file and the rebellious. Police officers also want to have a party and they also want to go out for a drink and meal.
