The climate events of 2022-24 have been “truly extraordinary”, notes Dr. Javier Vinós writing in Dr. Judith Curry’s online blog. The rare convergence of a number of events “that may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years” represents a “unique learning opportunity” for climatologists. Interestingly, Dr. Vinós downplays the roll of the current El Niño. He says that the January 2022 Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption, that boosted upper atmospheric water vapour by a remarkable 10%, is the most likely cause of the recent warming, which in turn led to an unprecedented three sudden stratospheric warming events. As the excess water leaves the atmosphere, observes Vinós, it will induce a cooling effect at the surface potentially lowering temperatures for the next three to four years.
The Hunga Tonga eruption was an extraordinary event since it blasted an enormous amount of water vapour into the upper atmosphere without the usual volcanic ash. Dust particles spread throughout the atmosphere can have a temporary cooling effect, as in 1815 with the Mount Tambora explosion, but water vapour has warming properties and is considered the most potent ‘greenhouse’ gas. “Unlike the lower troposphere, where the greenhouse effect is relatively saturated, the stratosphere, well above the Earth’s average emission altitude (about 6 km), experiences a much more pronounced effect from the addition of water vapour,” he observes.
The unusual weather events over the last few months have been catnip to alarmists in the general ranks of media, science and politics. The strictures of following the Net Zero political agenda mean that large swathes of climate science are ‘settled’ and out of bounds for discussion. All the changes in the weather and climate are due to humans using hydrocarbons, state the authorities. The constant catastrophising of the recent weather has largely ignored natural variation, and so the heat transfers of El Niño and the boosting of water vapour from Hunga Tonga are relegated to subsidiary footnotes.
Climate scientists were initially shocked by the ferocity of the Hunga Tunga eruption and the huge plume of water that suddenly shot into the upper atmosphere. Within months a group of European scientists drew attention to the scale of the discharge. They concluded that the unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation caused by the volcano “ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observational era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate”. Since that date there does not appear to have been a great deal of debate about the subject published in the scientific press. The cynical might conclude that there is not a big demand for anything that might dent all the recent weather propaganda helpfully propping up Net Zero.
Never before have we witnessed an undersea volcanic eruption with a plume capable of reaching the stratosphere and depositing a large amount of vapourised water, states Dr. Vinós.
The above drawing shows the dramatic increase in water vapour since the start of 2022. It illustrates the movement of the volcanic water from the tropical regions to the mid and high latitudes where it will gradually leave the atmosphere in the coming years. Vinós poses the question, why did it take so long to detect atmospheric changes, and he suggest the answers lie in very quick longitudinal spread but much slower travel though the latitudes. This would appear to be borne out in the differences shown in the above illustration between 2022 and 2023. In addition there are seasonal variations to be taken into account. The eruption of Tambora provides a precedent in that the famous ‘year without a summer’ occurred 12 months after the April 1815 eruption.
Looking forward, Vinós says we should see a reversing of all the warming caused by the Hunga Tonga volcano. Heat alarmists have made hay of late, with the Financial Times‘s ‘Editorial Board’ recently pontificating that the climate threat “is now moving into uncharted territory”. But other factors are looming that could start a period of significant cooling. These include the decline in solar activity after the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a future ocean current shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. “These are indeed interesting times in terms of climate dynamics,” observes Vinós. Meanwhile a lively scientific discussion is to be found under the article on Dr. Curry’s site.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.