Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Drops 26% From February to March

The ONS announced today that there were 45,567 deaths registered in England in March, which is 18% less than in February, though still 1.5% more than the five-year average. (Note that deaths decreased throughout the month, so that by the week ending March 26th, the number of deaths was in fact below the five-year average.)

However, the best overall measure of mortality isn’t the number of deaths, or even the death rate (i.e., deaths divided by total population), but rather the age-standardised mortality rate. This takes into account the ages of those who died, as well as the age-structure of the overall population.

In March, the age-standardised mortality rate was 26% lower than in February, and 5.5% lower than the five-year average. This chart from the ONS shows the age-standardised mortality rate for the first three months of the year, each year, going back to 2001:

It indicates that 2021 has seen the highest level of mortality in the first three months of the year in England since 2006. However, it’s worth noting that the figure for 2021 is only 5% higher than the figure for 2018. And in Wales, the level of mortality in the first three months of the year was actually lower than in 2018.

January saw a much lower peak than April of last year, and today’s figures confirm that the mortality rate has fallen substantially further since then.

E.U. Will Not Take up Option to Buy 100 Million Extra Covid Vaccines from AstraZeneca

The European Commission has decided not to take up an option to buy 100 million additional doses of the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine after safety concerns about cases of blood clotting linked to the vaccine as well as issues with its supply. The European Union’s contract with AZ included 400 million doses of the vaccine, 100 million of which were optional. An E.U. spokesman said that the deadline to exercise this option had passed and that the bloc did not wish to take it up.

The E.U. is also preparing legal proceedings against AstraZeneca over the “fulfilment of deliveries”, though the drugmaker said it was not yet aware of any action. Reuters has the story.

The European Commission is working on legal proceedings against AstraZeneca after the drugmaker cut Covid vaccine deliveries to the E.U., sources familiar with the matter said.

The move would mark a further step in an E.U. plan to sever ties with the Anglo-Swedish company after it repeatedly cut supplies to the bloc, contributing to major delays in Europe’s vaccine rollout.

The news about the legal case was first reported on Thursday by Politico. An E.U. official involved in talks with drugmakers confirmed authorities in Brussels were preparing to sue the company.

“EU states have to decide if they (will) participate. It is about fulfilment of deliveries by the end of the second quarter,” the official said…

“What matters is that we ensure the delivery of a sufficient number of doses in line with the company’s earlier commitments,” a Commission spokesman said in an emailed statement. “Together with the member states, we are looking at all options to make this happen.”

Questions have been raised by the E.U. about how AstraZeneca has spent the money granted to it by the bloc to produce Covid vaccines, as well as about delays to the delivery of the vaccine.

Brussels also questioned how AstraZeneca spent more than 224 million euros ($270 million) granted by the E.U. in September to buy vaccine ingredients and for which the bloc said the company had not provided sufficient documents confirming the purchases.

Under the contract, the company had committed to making its “best reasonable efforts” to deliver to the E.U. 180 million vaccine doses in the second quarter, for a total of 300 million in the period from December to June.

But the company said in a statement on March 12th it would aim to deliver only one-third of that…

Under the contract, the parties agreed that Belgian courts would be responsible for settling unresolved disputes.

Worth reading in full.

News Round Up

Covid Passports Proving Vaccine Status Will be Introduced in Time for the Return of Overseas Travel

The Government has contacted travel industry figures to say that Covid passports will be introduced in time for the return of overseas travel. The passport will feature a traveler’s “vaccine status”, granting those who have been vaccinated entry into countries which demand evidence of such information. The Telegraph has the story.

Covid passports will be made available to prove people have been vaccinated as early as next month, in time for summer holidays, the travel industry has been told.

The Department for Transport wants an official certification scheme that gives British travellers a document they can show at borders overseas in place by May 17th.

In a separate development, a European medical agency recommended that fully vaccinated travellers should be able to sidestep tests and quarantine.

It potentially smooths the path for holidays to more than 20 countries that have indicated they could ask travellers for proof of vaccination, such as Israel, Croatia, Turkey, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus.

Greece has moved to reopen its tourism industry by dropping quarantine rules for travellers from more than 30 nations if they have been vaccinated or tested negative for Covid.

The Covid vaccine certificate could come in either digital or physical form, with Government officials exploring the best way to make it work in the tight time frame.

Critically, the proof of having received a Covid jab would be certified by UK Government, meaning it would be accepted by countries demanding evidence before entry.

The topic of Covid passports was discussed in a call between Government officials and travel industry figures held on Wednesday. A Government official is reported to have said:

We aim to give people the ability to prove their vaccine status by the time international travel restarts where other countries require it. The earliest that will restart is May 17th.

Border officials said this week that around 100 fake Covid test certificates are found every day at the U.K. border. Whether or not Covid passports will be as easy to forge as officials say test certificates are, there is no doubt that some fakes will flow through the system.

The Telegraph’s report is worth reading in full.

No Masks in Classrooms From Next Month

Secondary school pupils will not have to wear face masks in classrooms from next month, according to Gavin Williamson, but masks will still be required in corridors and on school buses. The Education Secretary has revealed that the rules will be eased slightly on May 17th – no earlier than, anyway! The Mail has the story.

Gavin Williamson said secondary school pupils will not have to wear face masks under rule changes expected on May 17th.

Students in year seven and above have to wear masks in communal areas and classrooms where one-metre social distancing cannot be maintained.

Now, the Education Secretary revealed the face coverings rule will be partially lifted no earlier than May 17th – with pupils still expected to wear masks in corridors and on school buses.

The mask rule – while not a legal requirement – proved controversial among parents.

Children were told if they refuse to wear masks when schools reopened on March 8th, they may be kept apart from their friends – with one parent branding it “mask apartheid”.

Removing rules about mask wearing is set to be confirmed with a week’s notice, the Times reports. 

Measures such as on-site testing in schools, increased ventilation and stringent hygiene rules will all remain in place. 

Earlier this month, a German court ruled that two schools should be prevented – with immediate effect – from forcing their pupils to wear masks, along with imposing social distancing measures and insisting on SARS-CoV-2 rapid tests, saying that “the state legislature regulating this area has gotten far removed from the facts, which has taken on seemingly historic proportions”. We can but dream! – but the (partial) removal of the mask mandate is, at least, a step in the right direction.

The Mail’s report is worth reading in full.

Pepsi Max Tests Positive for COVID-19

There follows a guest post by Nic Elliott, host of the Sounding Board podcast.

I decided to order some lateral flow tests now that anyone can request to be regularly tested.

My aim – a simple testing of household available items to see what the results would be. The results are crazy.

  • 3 gave a negative result.
  • 1 gave a void.
  • But 3 out of the 7 tests gave a positive result.

I make that a false positive rate of 43%, or 50% if you remove the voided result from the sample.

First I tested water – that came up negative. Then some tea left in my teapot, also negative.

Then I decided to test my own saliva (but not a swab stuck anyone official). That was negative, and still no voided results in sight.

I decided at this point to get serious and brought out the Lee & Perrins. This did give a void result, so it was time to bring out the big guns.

Pepsi Max (other vegetable extract-based drinks are available) – positive for SARS-CoV-2!

Then milk – a very faint line, but still classed as a positive according my official NHS leaflet.

And finally, mango chutney, the third positive COVID-19 test result.

Obviously, I am not going to report these staggering results, but maybe I’m looking for a conspiracy in the wrong area… Maybe the real bombshell is that COVID-19 is being spread through cola, cow’s milk and curry condiments.

Anthony Fauci Tells Congress Texas Has a Lower Infection Rate Than Michigan Because People are Ignoring Lockdown Rules

President Biden’s Chief Medical Adviser Dr Anthony Fauci has claimed the reason Michigan and other states which have maintained restrictions have a higher infection rate than Texas, which ended all Covid restrictions at the beginning of March, is because people in lockdown states are ignoring the rules. He did not attempt to explain why his prediction from March of a “very troublesome” surge in Texas had not materialised. When Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) attempted to press him on the feeble answer he had given to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, the Committee Chair Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) cut him off and said he’d had his answer. Breitbart News has the story.

Jordan said to Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, “You said when Texas ended their lockdown, ended their mandate, that this was quote ‘inexplicable and would lead to surging cases’. Texas is near the bottom of the 50 states, but all the states, all the states at the top are lockdown states.”

“That guess didn’t seem to be too good,” Jordan added.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on March 2nd lifted his state’s mask mandate and capacity restrictions on all businesses and facilities. Fauci responded to the move on March 3rd in a CNN interview:

“I don’t know why they’re doing it but it certainly from a public health standpoint is ill-advised. … We’ve been to this scene before months and months ago, when we tried to open up the country and open up the economy. When certain states did not abide by the guidelines, we had rebounds, which were very troublesome. What we don’t need right now is another surge so just pulling back on all the public health guidelines that we know work, and if you take a look at the curve, we know it works. It just is inexplicable why you would want to pull back now.”

Michigan topped Jordan’s list with a seven-day average case rate of 551 per 100,000 people. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has issued mask requirements and set a 50% capacity limit on many businesses, including retail and food establishments, as well as entertainment venues.

Jordan demanded an explanation from Fauci on why Texas, which, per his list, had a seven-day average case rate of 77 per 100,000 people, was “so darn low compared to the rest of the states”.

Fauci replied, “There’s a difference between lockdown and the people obeying the lockdown.”

“You know you could have a situation where they say, ‘We’re going to lock down’, and yet you have people doing exactly what they want –”

Jordan interjected to ask Fauci to clarify if he was suggesting people in states with the highest case rates were not obeying those states’ coronavirus-related orders.

Subcommittee Chair Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) then informed Jordan his speaking time had expired, but Jordan objected, arguing Fauci had not yet answered his question.

“I think the gentleman answered you quite clearly,” Clyburn said. “There’s a big difference in being a lockdown state by order and being a state that obeys orders. That answered the question in my opinion.”

Source: CDC

Even if Michiganders are ignoring the lockdown (and good for them if so), that doesn’t explain why restrictions must be maintained if removing them makes things no worse. There’s certainly no evidence Texans are voluntarily staying home very much at all.

The architects of lockdown aren’t even trying to give answers to why lifting restrictions does not trigger a devastating surge as their models unfailingly predict. Neither have they explained why Florida or South Dakota, which stayed open all winter, did not experience a worse outcome than states which imposed severe restrictions. Is this a sign that their ideology is crumbling? How much longer can lockdownism survive if its leading proponents cannot give answers to basic questions?

Read the article and watch the video here.

Gove Ignores Pesky Mask Mandate

Good to see this picture of Michael Gove in the Times of Israel ignoring pointless rules about indoor mask wearing. As you can see, he has set his to one side while he talks to the Israeli Prime Minister on his fact-finding mission in Israel. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is over there to investigate the country’s ‘Green Pass’ system, which is similar to the Covid status certification scheme that he is currently looking into on behalf of the Government.

No doubt when challenged about this, Gove will say he had just temporarily removed his mask in order to speak and promptly put it back on again when he returned to nodding-and-listening mode. But in those indoor spaces where the Government has recommended mask wearing – when out shopping, for instance – the guidance doesn’t say you’re allowed to remove your mask when you’re talking. Surely, if you’re a believer in the magical properties of disposable face nappies, of the type Gove has put aside in this photograph, you think it’s precisely when you’re holding forth at a small gathering that it should be worn? Or is the Gover, who apparently does believe in this voodoo, just worried about being infected by Benjamin Netanyahu and not about infecting him?

Whichever way you cut it, this is an embarrassing photograph for Boris’s right-hand-man.

Fitness Chain “Burned About £500,000 per Day” After Losing 12% Of Members Through Lockdown

Fitness chain PureGym suffered pre-tax losses of almost £215 million last year after the forced closure of its sites due to Government-imposed lockdowns. Large parts of the fitness industry fought to remain open during lockdowns with some gyms risking £10,000 fines by refusing to close their doors to customers. Before the second national lockdown, one gym owner said: “We should be doing everything we can to get people healthier and fitter,” adding that “gyms save the NHS”. But venues were forced to close, costing PureGym alone about £500,000 a day. The Mail has the story.

The Leeds-based company registered a massive 40% plunge in revenue during 2020 as gyms were shut for 44% of the year’s trading days. In pre-pandemic 2019, it recorded losses of around £40 million. 

Despite trying to strike a note of optimism after gyms in England reopened on April 12th, Chief Executive Humphrey Cobbold called the company’s trading performance “frankly awful” and “out of hands”. The financial statement exceeds his stated fears of a £120 million loss caused by shutdowns. 

PureGym reported seeing more than a million workouts completed across its 240 gyms in the first week of the roadmap as people try to shed unwanted pounds after being trapped inside for three months.

But in a statement released today, Mr Cobbold called 2020 “a very tough year” and blamed restrictions for “preventing us from trading” and causing “a severe impact on our financial performance”. He previously told the BBC that PureGym was “burning about £500,000 a day” due to “brutal” lockdowns. 

“We had to run a business with zero income for extended periods, a previously unthinkable scenario,” Mr Cobbold admitted today. “We had to make major operational changes in the tightest of time frames and alter our proposition in weeks that would have taken years in normal times.” …

PureGym is one of the biggest losers of the pandemic, with Covid restrictions hammering leisure, hospitality and travel industries hardest. 

Trade organisation ukactive has highlighted the impact of lockdowns on the nation’s health and the fitness industry in particular.

Polling by ukactive and ComRes suggested 42% of UK adults were sitting for at least 14 hours longer per week during lockdown.

A survey by ukactive of its members showed approximately 400 facilities had already been lost during the crisis, while lockdown had resulted in £90 million in lost membership fees each week.

January is normally a key period for new joiners and renewals and usually sees 30% growth.  

Worth reading in full.

Border Officials Finding “100 Fake Covid Test Certificates a Day”

Border officials have said that around 100 fake Covid test certificates are found every day at the U.K. border because the documents are “very easy” to forge. Fakes are usually only identified due to spelling errors. The Telegraph has the story.

Around 100 fake Covid test certificates are being discovered at the border every day, in what experts have branded a “very leaky” system, it has emerged.

The fake documents claiming a traveller has a recent negative test result are “very easy” to forge, MPs have been told, and there is no way to tell how many more are being missed…

[Lucy] Moreton [Professional Officer for the Immigration Services Union] told the All Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus that around 20,000 people are coming into the country each day, the majority of whom are hauliers.

To enter England people must provide proof of a negative test taken in the three days before departure – which can be shown to border agents as a printed document or through an email or text message.

Asked how border agents are able to verify proof of a negative test, Ms Moreton told MPs: “We’re not, is the simple answer, it’s predominantly taken on trust.

“We do get 100 or more a day of fake Covid certificates, that we catch.”

She added they usually identify them due to spelling errors. 

But many certificates are in a foreign language which could make spelling mistakes trickier to spot, she added.

“Otherwise they are taken at face value,” she said.

Ms Moreton also said there is “little to no” evidence on how well people are adhering to quarantine rules. Arrivals from countries on the Government’s “red list” (to which India was recently added) must isolate for 10 days at a Government-approved hotel – and pay £1,750 for the privilege. The Government has attempted to crack down on rule-breakers by paying the private firm Mitie up to £90 million to carry out 10,000 home visits every day.

The Telegraph’s report is worth reading in full.