More Than 15 Million People Fully Vaccinated Against Covid in the U.K.

The number of people in the U.K. who have received two doses of a Covid vaccine has now exceeded 15 million. Almost 35 million people have also had at last one dose of a vaccine, yet the Government continues to refuse to speed up the exit from lockdown. Sky News has the story.

A large proportion of the elderly and most vulnerable are fully inoculated against Covid.

A further 372,304 second jabs were administered on Saturday, bringing the total to 15,329,617.

The number of first jabs given yesterday was 143,175. Some 34,505,380 people have now had at least an initial dose.

In its latest daily update, the government said a further 14 people had died within 28 days of a positive test…

Meanwhile, people who attended the “First Dance” event in Liverpool are being reminded they need to take follow up tests.

The city’s Director of Public Health, Matt Ashton, said: “We ask people to take a PCR five days afterwards and that helps us identify any virus that happened as a result of the event.

“I’m not expecting any.”

Worth reading in full.

NHS Preparing to Vaccinate Schoolchildren From September

Children as young as 12 could be vaccinated when the new school year begins in September under plans being drawn up by the NHS. A member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) says that vaccination of the young could help to prevent a third wave of Covid infections, despite very low numbers of children testing positive for Covid after schools reopened in March – many of them falsely – and the fact that a third wave probably won’t happen anyway, according to SAGE modellers. The Sunday Times has the story.

Health officials are drawing up plans to offer the Pfizer vaccine to secondary school pupils from September.

“Core planning scenario” documents compiled by NHS officials include the offer of a single dose to children aged 12 and over when the new school year starts.

The plans, which have been confirmed by sources within the Government and the NHS, depend on advice due this summer from scientists on the JCVI. But officials are preparing for a rollout in schools. A source said: “No decision has been made yet but we are drawing up planning materials for the different scenarios.”

Professor Adam Finn, who sits on the JCVI, said the decision would depend on rates of the virus over the next few months. “We need to be in a position to immunise children, particularly teenagers, promptly and efficiently if we need to.” He pointed to recent modelling that predicts a third Covid wave will happen after restrictions are lifted on June 21st.

If rates rose significantly, he said, it would be a priority to vaccinate children to stop the closure of schools next year. “It is extremely important that education in the next academic year is not disrupted in any way.”

But Finn, a Paediatrician at Bristol University, stressed that a child vaccination programme might be unnecessary if rates dropped to a low level before the autumn. “We should only be doing vaccine programmes when we need to do them,” he said.

Worth reading in full.

Dominic Raab Rejects Calls to Speed up the Exit From Lockdown

No amount of good news on the Covid front will persuade the Government to speed up the exit from lockdown. We are “very close now to really turning the corner” in our efforts against Covid, but not close enough that our unlock can be brought forward, according to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. What’s more, he said that rules on mask-wearing and social distancing could continue beyond June 21st. MailOnline has the story.

The Foreign Secretary warned “there will still need to be some safeguards in place” after [June 21st] in comments likely to anger Tory MPs who want all coronavirus rules to be lifted. 

[Talking to Sophy Ridge on Sky News,] Mr Raab rejected calls to speed up the roadmap as he insisted “we are very close now to really turning the corner” in the battle against the disease. 

The success of the U.K.’s vaccination programme and falling infection numbers have prompted demands for the Government to bring forward its reopening dates. 

But the Foreign Secretary this morning urged people to be patient as he insisted June 21st is not far away and “we are nearly there’”.

He argued that “taking steady steps out of the lockdown is the smart way to go” to avoid undoing the progress made during the national shutdown. 

He also… promised that on June 21st “almost all social restrictions will be lifted”.

To justify the “roadmap” continuing at its current slow pace, Raab said: “[The] fourth step out of lockdown is not far away now so I think [we should] just hang on.” But for the sake of the hospitality venues that have yet to reopen (and even those that have reopened outdoors), and for the sake of the nation’s mental and physical health, any amount of time still spent in lockdown is too long.

MailOnline‘s report is worth reading in full.

A Tale of Two Protests

There follows a guest post by Dr Niall McCrae contrasting yesterday’s ‘Kill the Bill’ demonstration with the anti-lockdown march of a week earlier.

A week is a long time in the politics of rallies. Yesterday a Kill the Bill march in London drew five thousand mostly young protestors against the proposed strengthening of police powers over protestors. A good cause was distorted by the divisive identity politics on display: Black Lives Matter banners, transgender flags and radical Marxist placards supplied by the Socialist Workers Party. On the preceding Saturday (April 24th) a gathering twenty or thirty times bigger marched from Hyde Park to Holborn Viaduct and back in a joyful expression of unity by ordinary people of every class and creed.

Whereas the Unite for Freedom rally was initially ignored by the BBC and other mainstream media, the Kill the Bill demo was widely reported. Furthermore, coverage of the latter was sympathetic, as most keenly expressed in the Guardian. The most we heard from the BBC on the anti-lockdown protest was by Marianna Spring, who tweeted disparaging remarks about conspiracy theorists with a ludicrous underestimate of the crowd.

The reporting blackout ended later, after videos emerged of the police involved in a fracas with a handful of protestors near Speakers Corner. A group of marchers were basking in the last rays of a glorious sunny day, listening to an impromptu gig. They were doing no harm, but a squad of police officers steamed in, presumably to confiscate the audio equipment and arrest the band. The revellers linked arms and the police retreated in a hail of derision and missiles. “Ten arrests at anti-lockdown protest” reported the Sunday Times.

The Kill the Bill protest produced considerably worse behaviour. For long stretches “ACAB” – all cops are bastards – was chanted, and other aggressive phrasing imported from BLM/Antifa riots in the USA. Although the protest was against police powers, the marchers want freedom of expression “for me but not for thee”. These are the puritanical offspring of our education system, who think that any contrary opinion is “hate speech”. Quite a contrast with the all-embracing ethos of a week earlier.

Most of the Kill the Bill marchers were masked, although there is no requirement to do so outdoors. As the Kill the Bill walkers began to wander off, the lonely figure of Piers Corbyn tried to bridge the yawning gap between anti-lockdown and anti-police protestors. Old Piers has been working behind the scenes to bring left-wing activists into the campaign against the Covid regime, collaborating with BLM leader Sasha Johnson in his Let London Live Party in the London Assembly election. However, to the Kill the Bill crowd he seemed a cantankerous old man, who had come to the wrong show. Few stayed to listen, and those who did frowned and looked at him condescendingly. In exasperation Corbyn berated people for wearing masks: “wake up, they’re f***ing playing you!” But the Kill the Bill protestors are happy to be muzzled. And they get a good press, unlike lockdown sceptics.

Digital Vaccine Passport for Overseas Travel Open to Hackers When Accessed at the Airport

Private information contained within the NHS mobile app that’s going to be used as a Covid vaccine passport when international travel returns could be accessed by hackers at airports if logged into on insecure Wifi networks. The Telegraph has the story.

Britons travelling abroad have been warned against using airport WiFi to log into the NHS app to their vaccine passports in case they hand over their health details to hackers…

Logging into the app and loading health data while on insecure WiFi networks could see hackers gain access to passwords as well as sensitive personal information about people’s health conditions.

Peter Yapp, a Schillings partner who was previously a Deputy Director at GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre, urged people not to rely on networks that can steal your data.

“Don’t access this, if at all possible, through WiFi connections that you don’t know anything about,” he said. “That just gives someone the opportunity to potentially get the data as it’s passing through.”

Hackers have used their own malicious public WiFi networks in the past to trick people into signing up for them and then stealing their information as it passes through.

“It has happened for a long, long time and it continues to happen,” said Matt Lock, a Director at cybersecurity business Varonis.

“There is nothing stopping anybody from walking into these public spaces and setting up their own public WiFi,” he added. “Then you’re in a situation where all your traffic is potentially being captured.”

Hackers can easily set up their own WiFi networks in public spaces, often with innocent-sounding names that mimic legitimate networks. 

Once a victim logs on to a hacker’s network, all of their web traffic can be intercepted so that hackers can monitor which websites and apps are used. 

They can also steal their login information including passwords and any data sent to their apps, including the health records shown in the NHS app.

The Government is said to be examining ways to export a vaccine passport into a “digital wallet” that can be accessed offline.

This is not the only example of a Government Covid app facing criticism over its security (or lack thereof). Last month, an update to the NHS Test and Trace mobile app was blocked by Apple and Google because it broke rules about the collection of location data.

The Telegraph report is worth reading in full.

News Round Up

Journal Retracts Study Showing Masks Don’t Work Claiming Science “Clearly Shows” Masks Work, But Fails to Cite Any Evidence

The peer-reviewed study “Facemasks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis” by Dr Baruch Vainshelboim has been retracted by the journal Medical Hypotheses on the instruction of the Editor-in-Chief.

The study argues that neither medical nor non-medical facemasks are effective in blocking transmission of viral and infectious disease such as SARS-CoV-2, and that in the long run they are likely to damage individual health.

The retraction notice reads:

This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief.

Medical Hypotheses serves as a forum for innovative and often disruptive ideas in medicine and related biomedical sciences. However, our strict editorial policy is that we do not publish misleading or inaccurate citations to advance any hypotheses.

The Editorial Committee concluded that the author’s hypothesis is misleading on the following basis:

1. A broader review of existing scientific evidence clearly shows that approved masks with correct certification, and worn in compliance with guidelines, are an effective prevention of COVID-19 transmission.

2. The manuscript misquotes and selectively cites published papers. References #16, 17, 25 and 26 are all misquoted.

3. Table 1. Physiological and Psychological Effects of Wearing Facemask and Their Potential Health Consequences, generated by the author. All data in the table is unverified, and there are several speculative statements.

4. The author submitted that he is currently affiliated to Stanford University, and VA Palo Alto Health Care System. However, both institutions have confirmed that Dr Vainshelboim ended his connection with them in 2016.

A subsequent internal investigation by the Editor-in-Chief and the Publisher have determined that this article was externally peer reviewed but not with our customary standards of rigour prior to publication. The journal has re-designed its editorial and review workflow to ensure that this will not happen again in future.

If there are errors in the paper, the question is why these were not picked up and addressed with the author prior to publication in the usual manner. If some were missed and subsequently came to light, the journal could have asked for revisions to the paper to address the criticisms. That it chose to retract it completely suggests the move is political (though the allegations of dishonesty in affiliations may have played a part). There is no indication in the notice of any correspondence with the author in the matter.

The strangest criticism is the first: “A broader review of existing scientific evidence clearly shows that approved masks with correct certification, and worn in compliance with guidelines, are an effective prevention of COVID-19 transmission.” This is just a restatement, without references, of mask orthodoxy. Given that Dr Vainshelboim had provided a wide range of references in his review of the evidence, a rebuttal should surely have come in the form of a similar rigorous academic exercise, marshalling further evidence, not a bald 28-word sentence about what the evidence “clearly shows”. This is not the way robust academic research happens or science advances. The editors could have published a response, or another study drawing on further evidence that comes to a different conclusion. That they instead retract the article on account of criticisms from unnamed correspondents, drawing on unspecified evidence, is a disgraceful way to treat peer-reviewed scientific research and the scientists who produce it.

What exactly is this uncited evidence that “clearly shows” masks reduce transmission? Certainly not the only randomised controlled trial, Danmask-19, which found no significant protection for the wearers of surgical masks. And certainly not the real-world evidence comparing countries or states with mask mandates to those without.

Covid Deaths Lower Than Typical Fatalities from Influenza and Pneumonia for Past Month

Covid deaths continue to fall in England and Wales – to such an extent that the number of daily deaths from Covid for the past month has been lower than the five-year average of deaths from influenza and pneumonia. The Telegraph has the story.

For the past month daily Covid deaths in England and Wales have been lower than the typical number of people dying from the flu, data shows. 

Since late March there have been fewer Covid deaths each day than the five-year average of deaths from influenza and pneumonia, which normally stood at 86 during the months of March and April, according to preliminary figures published by the ONS. 

As of the week ending April 16th, there have been on average 29 daily deaths where Covid was mentioned on the victim’s death certificate, as opposed to an average of 80 involving influenza and pneumonia at the same point in the years between 2015 and 2019.

While Covid deaths are now lower, the data also shows how they massively surpassed typical flu deaths during the worst days of the second wave, and continued to remain significantly higher over a month into England’s third national lockdown. 

On January 19th there were 1,372 deaths mentioning Covid on the death certificate, a tenfold increase on the average number of flu deaths at that time of year of 133.

Even a month later by February 19th Covid daily deaths stood at 407, four times higher than the five-year average of influenza and pneumonia deaths of 107 at the same time of year.

The ONS data also reveals the extent to which the spread of Covid has now been brought to heel, with the country’s top epidemiologists claiming the coronavirus has moved to manageable “endemic” levels. 

Not only that – even SAGE modellers have admitted that a “third Covid wave” probably won’t happen, as Toby reported here.

The Telegraph’s report is worth reading in full.

SAGE Modellers Admit ‘Third Wave’ Probably Won’t Happen

New SAGE modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17th will show the risk of a ‘third wave’ of Covid infections in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all. The Telegraph has more.

The last set of projections, published by SAGE on March 31st, presented ministers with a difficult dilemma because they suggested a third wave of infections could be expected to kill another 15,000 to 20,000 people in the late summer if steps three and four of the exit roadmap were implemented as planned.

Ministers are expected to proceed with step three of the roadmap, with the return of indoor household mixing and indoor hospitality, as modelling teams which provided projections for ministers via the SPI-M subgroup of SAGE are said to be more optimistic.

Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who works on modelling provided to SAGE, welcomed the new real world data on vaccine effectiveness.

“There was considerable uncertainty about the impact of vaccines on infection and transmission earlier this year, but recent studies are landing at the more optimistic end of the scale – at least for the dominant B.1.1.7 variant,” he told the Telegraph.

“We could still see some increase in transmission as things reopen, but the resulting impact could be relatively low if the vaccine programme stays on track and we don’t end up with variants that can partially evade immunity.”

New real-world data released last week has allowed SAGE to improve the assumptions which underpin their models on both vaccine effectiveness and rollout. Crucially, a PHE study released last week showed for the first time that vaccines cut “breakthrough transmission” of the virus by about half after a single shot.

“If you look at where they were in early April, compared to where they were in early February, they moved a huge distance,” said James Ward, a mathematician and insurance risk manager, who runs his own Covid model which closely shadows the official ones.

“So actually, it’s not very far for them to move now, from predicting an exit wave of 15,000 to 20,000 deaths to them predicting an exit wave of zero to 5,000, or maybe nothing at all.”

Worth reading in full.

U.K. Records Just Seven Covid Deaths – Down 75% in a Week

Coronavirus deaths in the U.K. have fallen by three-quarters after just seven deaths were revealed today. MailOnline has more.

While last Saturday 15 people in the UK died of coronavirus, today the Government announced seven deaths, demonstrating a steady decline in fatalities.

It comes after Office for National Statistics data suggested the total number of infections is lower than at any point since early September and infections have been falling constantly for five weeks.

Experts said the data “should be celebrated” and were the first proof that, despite the reopening of outdoor hospitality and allowing the rule of six earlier this month, there was still “no evidence of an increased transmission risk”.

Worth reading in full.