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COVID-19: Just the Facts

We’re publishing an original piece today by Dr Will Jones, one of Lockdown Sceptics’ editors and regular contributors, which tries to answer 12 key questions about COVID-19 as factually as possible, referencing the best, most up-to-date evidence. We’ve decided to stick it just below ‘About’ in the main menu on the right-hand side.

The questions he considers are:

  • How deadly is COVID-19?
  • How is COVID-19 Spread?
  • What about asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission?
  • Do lockdowns work?
  • Does social distancing work?
  • Are lockdowns harmful?
  • Are the vaccines effective?
  • Are the vaccines safe?
  • Do masks work?
  • Are masks safe?
  • Are effective treatments available?
  • What should governments have done?

To give you a taster, here’s Will’s answer to question number three: What about asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission?

Asymptomatic infection is typically characterised by a much lower viral load and consequently much lower infectiousness. The study in JAMA on household secondary attack rate (SAR) cited above found that asymptomatic infections had a SAR of just 0.7% versus a SAR of 18% for symptomatic infection. The proportion of infections that are asymptomatic increases among those with immunity from previous infection or vaccination, showing that it is a characteristic of immunity.

People become infectious around two days prior to onset of symptoms as viral load peaks. This pre-symptomatic transmission is estimated to account for around 6.4% of spread, according to a study of actual transmission events from Singapore. Modelled estimates of the contribution of pre-symptomatic spread appear to go too high.

This means that people without symptoms, whether asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, are not major drivers of the epidemic.

The whole thing is very much worth reading in full.

By Toby Young  /  9 May 2021 • 19.54
   
38 comments

Britons Catching Covid after Being Vaccinated Get Milder Symptoms

According to the data gathered by the ZOE Covid Study app based at King’s College London, Britons catching coronavirus post-vaccination get a milder form of the disease. Sarah Knapton, the Telegraph‘s Science Editor, has more.

The team at King’s said as the number of people being vaccinated increased, those reporting an infection after the jab was rising, but the symptoms had changed.

Prof Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE Covid Study app, and professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s, said: “Whereas in the past about half of people had classic symptoms in the first week, less than a third do now, if they’ve had a vaccination.

“And so you’re gonna get less symptoms, they’ll be less severe, they won’t be classic, so do keep an open mind and do get a test when we ask you to, that way we’ll keep a close eye on it, and make sure that even if mild, you’re not going to pass it on to other people.

“The importance of our survey is getting even greater because the disease is shifting. The fact that we haven’t relied on those three symptoms like official government ones allows us much more breadth to find out what’s really going on, and whether not only the new various [sic] might be causing different symptoms.”

A third of UK adults are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19, latest figures have shown. A total of 17,669,379 people have received both jabs, the equivalent of 33.5 per cent of all people aged 18 and over.

Meanwhile, 35,371,669 people in the UK have now received a first dose of vaccine, the equivalent of 67.2 per cent of the adult population.

King’s estimates the current risk of a Covid-19 infection for the unvaccinated is one in 46,855, falling to 1 in 97,616 after the first dose, and 1 in 167,341 after the second dose.

Time to reopen Boris?

Worth reading in full.

By Toby Young  /  9 May 2021 • 17.11
     
68 comments

Two Covid Deaths Reported in Last 24 Hours

While the number of Covid cases increased slightly this week, the number of reported deaths fell by 86%. MailOnline has the story.

Coronavirus daily deaths tumbled by 86% from 14 to just two in a week while cases rose slightly by 6% in the same period as official figures show a third of U.K. adults are now fully vaccinated against Covid.   

The latest Department for Health figures show that the number of daily virus cases rose from 1,671 to 1,770 on last Sunday while the number of Covid deaths plummeted in further evidence of the efficacy of vaccines. 

Official figures also show that more than 17.6 million people have now received both jabs, with England and Northern Ireland both estimated to have given two doses to 33.6% of their adult population – slightly ahead of Wales (33.4%) and Scotland (33.1%)…

Meanwhile, 35,371,669 people in the U.K. have now received a first dose of vaccine – the equivalent of 67.2% of the adult population.  Wales has given a first dose to 76.2% of its adult population, ahead of Northern Ireland (66.9%), England (66.8%) and Scotland (65.4%).   

The Prime Minister should go much further tomorrow than simply announcing that hugging will be “allowed” from May 17th.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  9 May 2021 • 16.33
   
12 comments

Government to “Allow” Us to Cuddle Friends and Family From May 17th

As if we ever needed the Government’s permission, Michael Gove says that Brits will be allowed to hug friends and family from May 17th – that is, “all being well”! MailOnline has the story.

The Cabinet Office minister said “intimate contact” between people in different households is set to return when the latest stage of the roadmap is reached in a week’s time. 

Boris Johnson is set to confirm the relaxation at a Downing Street press conference tomorrow, after the vaccine rollout and plunging infections led to huge pressure from Tory MPs to speed up his plans…

It is also expected that funerals will be permitted to take place for up to 30 people from May 17th – a month earlier than anticipated.

But rules for weddings and “other life or commemorative events” will update as expected, with only 30 guests able to attend indoor receptions until June 21st.

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Mr Gove said that the Government wanted to restore “contact between friends and family”.

He said: “All being well, the Prime Minister will confirm tomorrow that there will be a relaxation, we’ve already indicated a proportionate relaxation on international travel, very limited at this stage because we have to be safe.

“In the same way, as we move into stage three of our road map it will be the case that we will see people capable of meeting indoors.

“And without prejudice to a broader review of social distancing, it is also the case that friendly contact, intimate contact, between friends and family is something we want to see restored.”

Asked if that meant hugs will be allowed again from around May 17th, he said: “Yes.”

Gove also said that “we’ll be seeing more about [whether mask-wearing rules will continue in secondary schools beyond May 17th] shortly”, despite Education Secretary Gavin Williamson signalling last week that the decision had already been made.

Mr Gove said he was “genuinely worried” about Indian coronavirus variants and whether they might take hold in the U.K.. But he said currently there was not an issue that would derail the roadmap.

He said the Government is reviewing whether pupils should continue to wear masks in schools from May 17th – something Gavin Williamson previously said will be dropped.

Ministers have faced calls from union leaders for face coverings to remain in secondary schools and colleges for longer. 

When asked whether mask-wearing in schools will end, Mr Gove said: “What we want to do throughout is balance public health by making sure we can return to normal as quickly as possible.”

“I won’t pre-empt that judgment, we’ll be seeing more about it shortly.”

It seems as though the Government could still bend to pressure from the teaching unions yet.

The MailOnline report is worth reading in full.

Stop Press: It is becoming increasingly difficult to tell the difference between reality and spoof: BBC News has produced a report on “how to hug safely” that could well have been published on Babylon Bee.

Stop Press 2: Silkie Carlo, the Director of Big Brother Watch, has pointed out that hugging was never not “allowed”.

By Michael Curzon  /  9 May 2021 • 15.27
     
60 comments

Nearly Nine Out of 10 Young Adults Want to Be Vaccinated Against Covid, According to New Survey – so What’s the Point of Vaccine Passports?

Government insiders believe that domestic vaccine passports “may focus minds” and “nudge” young people into accepting Covid vaccines. But a new survey of 17,000 Brits suggests that nearly nine out of 10 young adults want to be vaccinated anyway. Vaccine acceptance rates barely differ across different age brackets, according to the survey. The Mail on Sunday has the story.

The vast majority of younger adults who have not yet been vaccinated against Covid say they are likely to take up the offer of a jab, according to a major new survey.

A poll of almost 17,000 Britons by ORB International, working with Imperial College and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, found younger people’s attitudes to vaccination barely differ from those of the middle-aged.

Among those aged 45 to 54 who have not yet been invited for their first jab, 85% said they would definitely or probably have the vaccine. For those aged 25 to 44, it was 84% and for those in the 18-to-24 age bracket it was 85%.

Given the enthusiasm for the Covid vaccines among younger populations, what is the point of introducing domestic vaccine passports, as the Government is currently considering? If anything, these could lead to fewer people (including young people) getting vaccinated, according to SAGE member Professor Stephen Reicher. Earlier this month, Professor Reicher (quoted in the MailOnline) said the Government was “setting itself up for failure” if it introduced such a scheme.

There is a very traditional, well-known psychological process called reactance: that if you take away people’s autonomy, if you force them to do something, they will reassert their autonomy, even if that means not doing things that they would otherwise want to do.

Making something compulsory, or at least doing something which leaves the perception of compulsion, can actually undermine activities which otherwise people would do and might even want to do.

Another Economist/YouGov poll of Americans suggests that almost 80% of people who oppose the Covid vaccine will never change their minds. “Never” presumably includes “even if vaccine passports were introduced” – again highlighting the pointlessness of imposing such a scheme, if the aim is to persuade the hesitant to be vaccinated.

More than two-thirds of British adults have now received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine and a large proportion of those who are most vulnerable to the virus have been fully vaccinated.

The Mail on Sunday report is worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  9 May 2021 • 11.49
     
61 comments

News Round Up

By Jonathan Barr  /  9 May 2021 • 02.05
 
45 comments

U.S. States Turning Down Covid Vaccine Doses as Demand Declines

Demand for Covid vaccines continues to wane in the U.S., where states are requesting small fractions of their allotted doses from the Federal Government to save them from having to throw misused doses away. The Guardian has the story.

Reduced demand, which is contributing to a growing stockpile of doses, comes as nearly 46% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a two-shot vaccine and about 34% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

Last week, Joe Biden announced a plan to get at least one dose of vaccine administered to 70% of the nation’s adult population by July 4th – a date also floated for a full-economic and social interaction re-opening of America.

But on Saturday, hours before a pre-recorded message from Biden to a Global Citizen Vax Live event, it was reported that the nation’s vaccination rate dropped to two million shots a day – a 20% decrease from the week before…

Reports that many states are requesting that the Biden administration send them only a fraction of their allocations is a clear indication of persistent vaccine hesitancy in the U.S..

According to the Associated Press, Wisconsin health officials have asked for just 8% of the 162,680 doses that had been set aside for the state next week. Julie Willems Van Dijk, a State Health Department official, has said demand is softening and vaccinators are reducing existing inventories before ordering more doses.

Iowa health officials have requested 29% of the state’s allotment. Kansas officials asked for 9%, as the state has about 647,000 doses on hand; and Illinois officials says the state has five weeks’ worth of doses on hand and plans to cut its request, also to 9%. Similar patterns were reported by Connecticut – 26% – and South Carolina, 21%. North Carolina and Washington have reduced their requests by 40%.

But some states are maintaining full orders, including Maryland and Colorado. New York City is taking its full quota despite seeing the number of daily shots administered drop by about 40% since a mid-April peak.

Unused doses are expected to be allocated to states with higher demands.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  8 May 2021 • 22.29
   
34 comments

Pubs Close Their Beer Gardens as Poor Weather Keeps Punters Away

Profits at pubs that have access to outdoor space have – as expected – been dampened by poor weather. A triple whammy of heavy rain, high winds and low temperatures has kept pub-goers away from exposed beer gardens today. MailOnline has more.

The Environment Agency had two flood alerts in place for England today – one for the River Sow and River Penk in Stafford, and the other covering the River Burn from Waterden to Burnham Thorpe in Norfolk.

The Met Office said parts of the Brecon Beacons in South Wales could see five inches of rain between 6am today and midnight tonight, while BBC Weather said wind gusts in County Antrim reached 59mph this morning.

Pubs across England – such as in North Staffordshire and the West Midlands – have been forced to close temporarily because of the weather, and not for the first time. A publican at The Fox in Shipley told the Express and Star that ongoing Covid rules are “really affecting the business”.

I would say the rain has stopped people from coming out.

If people are dining and it rains they’ve got nowhere to go because we can’t let them go inside because of Covid rules and so it’s really affected the business.

We’ve had to close and we’re only doing short days, too. We didn’t open on bank holiday Monday because of the weather and it’s affected us big time…

We made a decision to close on the bank holiday last Thursday when we saw the weather forecast.

We thought it’s silly staffing the place knowing full-well what was coming.

The weather is expected to improve a little tomorrow, but the uncertainty caused by Covid regulations is keeping many publicans on edge – highlighting the importance of legal challenges against the delayed reopening of indoor hospitality.

The MailOnline report is worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  8 May 2021 • 17.39
     
37 comments

Just Five New Covid Deaths Recorded in Last 24 Hours

Britain’s daily coronavirus deaths fell by nearly 30% today, as the number of people who have received a second dose of a Covid vaccine soared past 17 million. MailOnline has more.

Officials also recorded just five lab-confirmed deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid swab, 28.6% less than the number recorded a week ago.

The latest figures show that nearly 35.2 million Britons have been given at least one dose of Covid vaccine, after another 119,349 first injections were administered yesterday.

The NHS also dished out a further 449,716 second doses, bringing the total number of people fully vaccinated against the disease to 17.2 million.

Some 66.8% of adults have had a first jab, while nearly a third have had their second.

Worth reading in full.

By Toby Young  /  8 May 2021 • 17.23
   
46 comments

China was Preparing for a Third World War with Biological Weapons – Including Coronavirus – Six Years Ago

Chinese scientists have been preparing for a Third World War fought with biological and genetic weapons including coronavirus for the last six years, according to a document obtained by US investigators. MailOnline has more.

The bombshell paper, accessed by the US State Department, insists they will be “the core weapon for victory” in such a conflict, even outlining the perfect conditions to release a bioweapon, and documenting the impact it would have on “the enemy’s medical system”.

This latest evidence that Beijing considered the military potential of SARS coronaviruses from as early as 2015 has also raised fresh fears over the cause of COVID-19, with some officials still believing the virus could have escaped from a Chinese lab.

The dossier by People’s Liberation Army scientists and health officials, details of which were reported in the Australian, examined the manipulation of diseases to make weapons “in a way never seen before”.

Senior government figures say it “raises major concerns” over the intentions of those close to Chinese President Xi Jinping amid growing fears about the country’s lack of regulation over its activity in laboratories.

The authors of the document insist that a third world war “will be biological”, unlike the first two wars which were described as chemical and nuclear respectively.

Referencing research which suggested the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan forced them to surrender, and bringing about the end of WWII, they claim bioweapons will be “the core weapon for victory” in a third world war.

The document also outlines the ideal conditions to release a bioweapon and cause maximum damage.

The scientists say such attacks should not be carried out in the middle of a clear day, as intense sunlight can damage the pathogens, while rain or snow can affect the aerosol particles.

Instead, it should be released at night, or at dawn, dusk, or under cloudy weather, with “a stable wind direction… so that the aerosol can float into the target area”.

Meanwhile, the research also notes that such an attack would result in a surge of patients requiring hospital treatment, which then “could cause the enemy’s medical system to collapse”.

Worth reading in full.

By Toby Young  /  8 May 2021 • 15.45
   
61 comments