Did Care Homes Achieve Focused Protection in the Second Wave?

Contrary to popular understanding, Britain’s second wave of COVID-19 was less deadly than the first: although there were more deaths within 28 days of a positive test, age-adjusted excess mortality was lower. 

One possible explanation is that fewer people were infected in the second wave (even though the infection fatality rate remained constant). However, data from the Coronavirus Infection Survey suggests that roughly the same number of people were infected in the two waves. About 7% of people had antibodies at the end of the first wave, and about 14% had antibodies toward the end of the second wave (before the vaccination program had gotten fully underway). 

Incidentally, some people may have been infected without developing antibodies. I’m using the number who developed antibodies as a proxy for the total number who were infected in each wave.

Another possible explanation is that we became better at treating the illness. Evidence suggests that thousands of lives were saved by corticosteroids like dexamethasone, but these may not have been widely used in the first wave. Yet another explanation is simply that there were fewer frail elderly people alive at the beginning of the second wave, meaning that the average elderly person who became infected was less likely to die from the disease. 

However, there’s possibly a fourth reason why the second wave was less deadly than the first, namely that care homes achieved a degree of focused protection.

In the first wave, a disproportionate number of those who died were care home residents. This is partly because elderly patients who’d caught the virus in hospital were discharged to care homes when they were still infectious, resulting in deadly outbreaks. Hence more effort was made to shield care home residents in the second wave. 

According to the ONS, there were 27,079 excess deaths in care homes during the first wave, but only 1,335 during the second wave:

This finding is supported by two recent academic studies. One study, published in Environmental Research, found that the percentage of COVID-19 deaths among care home residents was lower in the second wave in eight out of 11 countries with available data, including the UK. 

Another, unpublished study observed a major spike in excess mortality among care home residents last spring, but no increase during the final weeks of 2020.

While it’s too early to say exactly which factors explain the reduction in mortality between the two waves, the evidence presented here suggests that effective shielding of care home residents may have been a major contributor. Though it should be noted that care home occupancy was lower in the autumn and winter, which probably accounts for some of the disparity in excess deaths.

Perhaps if more attention had been paid to shielding in the first wave, Britain would have come through the pandemic with a lower death toll. 

This post has been updated.

Time to “Move on” with Ending Lockdown, Says Government Adviser Sir John Bell

Sir John Bell says it is time to “move on” with ending lockdown, given that the numbers are no longer “too intimidating”. The Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford and member of the expert advisory group to the Vaccine Taskforce added that it would be wrong to “scamper down a rabbit hole” every time a new variant emerges because Covid “is here to stay probably forever“. The MailOnline has more.

Hitting back at members of SAGE calling for a longer lockdown, Sir John Bell said ministers must instead focus on hospitalisations and deaths [rather than on variants and cases], which have remained flat nationally but there are signs of admissions increasing.  

The Oxford University medical expert, who has advised the Government on Covid tests and vaccines, suggested the country must take a leap of faith and put trust in its world-beating vaccination rollout…

Sir John becomes the highest-profile adviser to call for ministers to stick with the roadmap and bring an end to social distancing laws on June 21st’s “Freedom Day”.

His comments come as pressure mounts on Boris Johnson to push the date back to buy time to roll out jabs to millions more people to defend against the Indian variant.

New Covid cases have now been above 3,000 for seven consecutive days in the U.K. but the country yesterday reported zero new deaths for the first time since July 2020, bolstering calls for Number 10 to push ahead with plans to get back to normal…

Sir [John] told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think we do need to keep our eye on hospitalisations, serious disease and deaths, which is really what we are trying to manage.

“If we scamper down a rabbit hole every time we see a new variant we are going to spend a long time huddled away – so I think we need to get a bit of balance into the discussion and keep our eyes on the serious disease we are trying to prevent.”

The Oxford expert also urged ministers to back rolling out the vaccine in other nations, to get outbreaks under control and reduce the risk of vaccine-busting variants emerging. 

Sir John’s intervention comes as Boris Johnson faces mounting pressure to delay England’s June 21st Freedom Day, with some scientists warning rising cases could spark “Covid volcanoes” in hospitals.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: The Prime Minister says there is still “nothing in the data at the moment that means we cannot go ahead with Step Four” of the roadmap out of lockdown, but believes the “data is still ambiguous“.

U.K. Rights Watchdog Endorses Mandatory Covid Vaccination for Care Home Staff

The U.K.’s human rights watchdog admits that forcing care home staff to get vaccinated against Covid would be a “significant departure from current public health policy”, but has endorsed the move anyway. Support of the idea from the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) could tip the balance away from the likes of Health Minister Nadine Dorries who oppose the “no jab, no job” policy, towards the view – held by both the Prime Minister and the Health Secretary – that legislation on this matter is necessary “to reach a position of much greater safety for care recipients”. The Guardian has more.

Ministers are considering changing the law to make vaccination a condition of deployment for people in some professions that come into regular close contact with elderly and vulnerable people at high risk from the coronavirus.

In a report to the Government seen by the Guardian, the EHRC admitted that making vaccines compulsory for care home staff would be a “significant departure from current public health policy”.

But they judged that ministers were “right to prioritise protection of the right to life for residents and staff” and said it would be reasonable for care home workers to need a jab “in order to work directly with older and disabled people, subject to some important safeguards”.

The Guardian adds that the EHRC is likely to make a similar recommendation about healthcare workers. Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi has suggested that NHS staff could also face mandatory vaccination, though the idea has received firm opposition from both the Royal College of Nursing, which has a membership of 450,000 registered nurses, and the Royal College of General Practitioners, representing over 50,000 British GPs.

Zahawi said no decisions had been made yet, and stressed there was a precedent: surgeons were required to be vaccinated against hepatitis B. He added: “It would be incumbent on any responsible Government to have the debate, to do the thinking about how we go about protecting the most vulnerable by making sure that those who look after them are vaccinated.”

A Government source said: “We think it would save lives.”

There is nervousness in Whitehall about making moves to force anyone to have a coronavirus injection, given the fear that this could make people who are already vaccine hesitant even more resistant.

[Whitehall is right to be nervous on this point: research suggests that health and social care workers who feel greater pressure from their employers to receive Covid vaccination are more likely to decline it.]

However, now that care workers had been eligible for vaccines for months due to their high position on the priority list, the EHRC said some demographic groups that were less likely to get vaccinated were “disproportionately represented in the adult social care sector workforce”.

The EHRC said mandatory vaccination could risk further excluding these groups “from access to employment”, so a proportionate approach with important safeguards was needed.

Worth reading in full.

A Quarter of Britain’s Pubs and Restaurants Have Yet to Reopen

Despite the recent easing of restrictions for both outdoor and indoor hospitality, new research shows that almost a quarter of Britain’s licensed premises have yet to reopen. The partial reopening of the sector has been largely hampered by the continuation of social distancing guidelines. Nearly 7.5% of Britain’s pre-lockdown total of pubs and restaurants have already closed for good. The Caterer has more.

23.7% of Britain’s… licensed premises have yet to reopen despite the return of inside service, new Market Recovery Monitor research from CGA and AlixPartners reveals.

The snapshot data found just under 25,000 venues are still shut, with similar trading numbers in England (76.6%) and Scotland (77.4%), but a notably slower return in Wales (69.6%).

The Market Recovery Monitor showed slightly more pubs have reopened than restaurants. Around nine in 10 high street pubs (92.9%), food pubs (91.8%) and community pubs (89.6%) are back trading, alongside 89.2% of casual dining and other restaurants.

However, social distancing and restrictions in place still make it unviable for swathes of venues to open, and 45.2% of Britain’s sports and social clubs remain closed, alongside 50.9% of large venues and 27% of bars. 

More than 8,500 premises… have already closed for good.

Karl Chessell, CGA’s Director for Hospitality Operators and Food, EMEA, said: “The return of large parts of hospitality for indoor service was a landmark moment for consumers and businesses alike, but it is alarming to see that so many venues have still not been able to welcome guests. Many will have decided that restrictions and space constraints make opening unviable, while some sectors like late-night bars and nightclubs are still completely off limits.

“It will be an anxious wait to see how many of the venues that are holding on until the final easing of restrictions will be able to make it through. Sustained support is clearly going to be needed to save thousands of vulnerable businesses and jobs.”

The continued presence of a fear of Covid (“Covid Anxiety Syndrome“, as it has been labelled) means many people have struggled with returning to normal life. This will no doubt have created further difficulties for publicans and restaurateur hoping to maximise sales after many months of forced closure. Recent polling from Ipsos MORI shows that 14% of British adults aren’t looking forward to having dinner in a restaurant with friends and 18% aren’t looking forward to going to the pub.

The Caterer report is worth reading in full.

News Round-Up

PHE Quietly Revises Down Effectiveness of AstraZeneca Vaccine

The latest Public Health England (PHE) weekly vaccine surveillance report appeared on Thursday (another one is due tomorrow).

I wasn’t holding out high hopes for this instalment, after digging down into the method used the previous week and finding it didn’t control adequately for background incidence (so confounded vaccine effectiveness with natural decline) and applied such brutal adjustments it could turn a 4% effectiveness into a 73% one. It lived down to expectations.

The authors appear still to be working out what exactly their reports are for as each of the three to date presents different information in a slightly different way. While the first was largely a summary of evidence published elsewhere, the second served more as a showcase for PHE’s latest study and focused on effectiveness against symptomatic disease in the over-65s (90%, supposedly). This week, the over-65s are gone and the focus is on effectiveness against the Indian variant. This makes reading the reports quite confusing, as each doesn’t feel so much like an update to the previous one as a stand-alone report on a separate topic.

In between Report 2 (for week 20) and Report 3, a separate PHE study was published on the Indian Delta variant which found the effectiveness of full vaccination against symptomatic Covid reduced from 93% to 88% with Pfizer and 66% to 60% with AstraZeneca when the Indian Delta variant was involved versus the British Alpha variant.

As I noted last week, this 66% effectiveness of AstraZeneca (against the British Alpha variant) was a long way below the 90% in the over-65s claimed in Report 2. It’s probably a sign of how low my opinion is of PHE vaccine studies that I was pleasantly surprised to see this discrepancy actually make an impact on the data presented in Report 3, and you can see below in the AstraZeneca two-doses box (top right) week 20’s “85-90%” has become “65% to 90%” in week 21. There is still no explanation from PHE, however, as to why one of their studies finds AstraZeneca 90% effective against symptomatic infection in the over-65s while another finds it is just 66% effective in all ages. Is this not the kind of discrepancy that should occasion comment from the authors?

Zero Daily Deaths Announced In the Whole Of the U.K. for First Time

The U.K. has reported zero deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test for the first time since March 2020 amid calls from Government advisors for lockdown to be extended past June 21st. Sky News has more.

The UK has reported zero daily coronavirus-related deaths for the first time since the pandemic began, but the Health Secretary has warned “we haven’t beaten this virus yet”.

According to the latest government data, 3,165 new COVID-19 cases were also recorded in the latest 24-hour period.

Matt Hancock tweeted that although the “whole country will be so glad there were no COVID-related deaths recorded yesterday… we know we haven’t beaten this virus yet”.

The latest figures come after a bank holiday weekend when the number of deaths and cases can be lower due to reporting lags.

Yet the suffering caused by the lockdowns continues.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: A reader has compiled a table showing the total daily tests, the number of cases, the percentage of tests that are positive and the number of Covid deaths recorded in each month dating back to March 2020. As you can see, there’s been a steady decline in the number of deaths since their peak in January 2021.

Scotland Delays the Lifting of Lockdown Restrictions – Will England Follow Suit?

The lifting of lockdown restrictions has been halted in much of the central belt of Scotland, with Nicola Sturgeon pinning the blame on the spread of the Indian Delta Covid variant. Sky News has the story.

Giving a Covid update to the Scottish Parliament, [the First Minister] said there was hope the rollout of vaccinations was “opening the path to a less restrictive way” of dealing with the virus.

But, with not all adults having yet received two doses of a vaccine, [Sturgeon] told MSPs: “We are not quite there yet.”

She added: “As we make this transition – just to compound the challenge – we are also dealing with a new, faster spreading variant.

“This is, of course, a new development that has arisen since we set out our indicative route map back in March.

“All of this means that at this critical stage – to avoid being knocked off course completely – we must still err on the side of caution.”

Edinburgh and Midlothian, Dundee, East Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, North, South and East Ayrshire, North and South Lanarkshire, Clackmannanshire and Stirling have not yet met the criteria to see restrictions ease, Ms Sturgeon said.

As a result, those areas will remain under Level Two restrictions [meaning limits will remain on social mixing and on leisure and entertainment businesses].

However, Glasgow will move down from Level Three to Level Two from Saturday.

And another 18 local authorities will see restrictions ease from Saturday to move down to Level One measures.

Worth reading in full.

Despite calls from various Government advisors for the end of England’s lockdown to be pushed back, the Prime Minister says there’s no evidence to suggest that the country’s reopening should be delayed. The Guardian has the story.

Boris Johnson stands by his comments that there is nothing in the data to suggest a deviation from England’s reopening on June 21st, Downing Street has said, as scientists said the U.K. was facing a perilous moment.

The Business Minister Paul Scully also said on Tuesday there was “cautious optimism” that the date for the final lifting of restrictions could go ahead as planned. He told Times Radio the Government did not want to have to roll back restrictions again.

“One thing that we saw last year, before Christmas, was the stop-start nature just didn’t work for businesses and cost them more. So we’ve got to get it absolutely right. People’s jobs and livelihoods depend on it.” …

Asked about the Prime Minister’s view on the latest data, a Number 10 spokesman said: “I was going to point to what the PM said on Thursday. The Prime Minister has said on a number of occasions that we haven’t seen anything in the data but we will continue to look at the data, we will continue to look at the latest scientific evidence as we move through June towards June 21st.”

A announcement on the final step of the roadmap out of lockdown is expected on June 14th.

Also worth reading in full.

Restrictions Resulted in “a Consistent Global Drop In Access to Cancer Care”, According to New Review of 69 Studies

A review of 69 studies from across the world has found that there was “a consistent global drop in access to cancer care” – both for adults and for children – during the first wave of Covid due to the restrictive measures introduced by governments. The review, led by Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, and Tom Jefferson for Collateral Global, highlights that late-stage cancer presentations (which are linked to decreased survival rates for certain cancers) increased because of delays to screenings, diagnoses, waiting lists and treatments during lockdowns, as well as after restrictions were lifted.

In an editorial based on their review, Carl Heneghan (Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford) and Tom Jefferson (an epidemiologist and expert on respiratory diseases) present the findings from various studies on changes to cancer services due to government-imposed restrictions.

From mid-March until the end of April 2020, a cervical cancer screening unit in Cameroon saw screening numbers drop by nearly 80%. This is troubling because late-stage presentations are linked to decreased cervical cancer survival. The five-year survival rate for U.S. women diagnosed with advanced cervical cancer is 15% compared with 93% for those presenting much earlier with localised disease. A similar outcome is seen in low-income countries. In India, for example, the five-year survival is 9% for advanced disease compared with 78% when the cancer is diagnosed at stage one when it is localised to the cervix.

Several studies in our review reported that when routine services resumed after restrictions were lifted, there was still a shift to later-stage disease presentations, even in countries that were relatively unaffected by the pandemic.

In a Japanese regional treatment centre, no significant changes were seen in the number of patients undergoing surgery. However, the number of patients undergoing surgery with advanced disease increased compared with before the emergency. In three university-affiliated hospitals in Korea, the number of cancers diagnosed remained the same; however, the proportion of patients with stage three-four non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) increased to 75% compared to an average of 63% in the three previous years.

Not all cancers have the same prognosis but presenting late with lung cancer is bad news. In those with early disease, more than 55 out of 100 people will survive for five years or more after diagnosis. But in later stage four disease – which has spread beyond the lungs – only five out of 100 survive for five years or more.

In low resource settings, delays had lethal effects. Among Indian patients presenting to a tertiary care hospital with oral cancers, 39% were deemed inoperable in the early three months of the Covid pandemic – double the number compared with the pre-Covid era.

These delays in care were not restricted to adults as children were affected in a variety of countries. In Turkey, a major Paediatric Oncology Department reported reductions in children undergoing chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and imaging studies during the Covid period. In Italy, presentations to the National Pediatric Oncology Unit in Milan during the lockdown phase were half of what would normally be expected. And in a U.S. tertiary referral centre, 75% of new leukaemia/lymphoma diagnoses required intensive care in April 2020 compared with a monthly average of 12% in 2018–2019.

Patients with cancer often delay seeking medical advice. The early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic substantially exacerbated these delays. The true extent of the impact of these delays may never be known. However, a substantial body of evidence reports that delays lead to later-stage cancer, which translates into more severe disease and subsequently reduces life expectancy. Low and middle-income countries are disproportionately affected by cancer, where more than two-thirds of all global deaths occur.

Worth reading in full.

The full review can be found here.

No Reason to Delay the End of Lockdown, Says Professor Robert Dingwall

Despite all the doom and gloom about the impact of the Indian Delta Covid variant, Robert Dingwall, Professor of Sociology at Nottingham Trent University and member of Government advisory group NERVTAG, says there is no reason to delay the end of lockdown. Professor Dingwall told Times Radio (as quoted in the Guardian) that “we have to push on” with unlocking because Covid no longer poses a great threat to society, whereas the “collateral damage” of lockdown does.

Personally, I don’t see any case for delay… from a societal point of view, I think it’s really important that we go ahead on June 21st, and I’ve not really seen anything in the data that would lead me to doubt that as a proposition on the evidence to date.

I think we need to recognise the way in which levels of fear and anxiety in the population have been amplified over the last 15 months or so.

We’ve got to look at the collateral damage in terms of untreated cancers, untreated heart conditions, all of the other things that people suffer from.

We’ve got to think about the impact of economic damage that would be caused by further periods of delay and uncertainty…

He added that because of the successful vaccine rollout, a slight increase in cases (due to the Indian variant) does not warrant the continuation of strict lockdown restrictions.

By the time we get to June 21st, everybody who is in the nine priority groups or the highest risk will have had both jabs, and would have had a period of time to consolidate the immunity.

What are we going on with is really running into younger age groups who are intrinsically much lower risk. Many of the scientists who’ve been talking over the weekend simply haven’t adjusted their expectations to understand that – (for these people) Covid is a mild illness in the community.

As the Director of Public Health Bolton was saying last week, the people who are going into hospital… it’s not like January, these are not desperately ill people.

They’re people who need a little bit of extra support with oxygen, they need access to the dexamethasone treatment, which is very effective.

They go in, stay in hospital for three or four days and they go out again. There is no realistic prospect of the NHS facing the sorts of pressures that it faced in January and February. And that’s why I think we have to push on with this.

Appearing on Lucy Johnston’s “Sketch Notes On A Pandemic” podcast on Sunday, Professor Dingwall also said (as flagged in today’s News Round-Up) there has been a “preference… throughout the pandemic to believe in the evidence of modelling rather than the evidence of the world”.