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Should We Have Relied More on Historical Comparisons and Less on Epidemiological Models?

During the pandemic, the British government has relied heavily on epidemiological models when deciding what course of action to take (e.g., whether to tighten or loosen restrictions). The advice it has received in this regard comes from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a body comprising 82 scientists from institutions across the U.K. 

Most influential (and infamous) have been the epidemiological models developed by Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London. Indeed, the Government initially appeared to be following a focussed protection strategy; it was only after the publication of an alarming report by the Imperial College team that lockdown became the official policy. (Ferguson and colleagues’ report has since been described as the “catalyst for policy reversal”.)

As late as March 5th, Chris Whitty told MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee: “We will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period.” He explained: “What we’re very keen to do is not intervene until the point we absolutely have to, so as to minimise economic and social disruption.” And he added that “one of the best things we can do” is to “isolate older people from the virus”.

Dominic Cummings has since confirmed that the Government did abandon its original plan at the last minute. He claims, “No10 was made aware by various people that the official plan wd lead to catastrophe.” 

However, the epidemiological models that served as the basis for lockdown – both here and elsewhere – have come under substantial criticism. They made highly untenable assumptions, such as that seasonality and voluntary behaviour change do not affect transmission. This, in turn, led to disastrous forecasting errors. For example, Neil Ferguson’s team predicted there would be 85,000 deaths in Sweden; to date, there have been fewer than 15,000 (and that figure’s probably an overestimate).

In a new paper published in History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences, George Heriot and Euzebiusz Jamrozik argue that we should have relied more on historical comparisons, and less on epidemiological models. 

They point out that “twenty-first century human communities may bear greater resemblance to communities in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries than to an abstracted representation within an epidemiological model”.

The authors note that the transmissibility and lethality of COVID-19 are “are well within the range described by respiratory viral pandemics of the last few centuries”, whereas the Spanish Flu of 1918 is “the clear outlier”. They suggest that the 1889 flu pandemic (sometimes termed the “Russian Flu”) offers a particularly close historical analogue to COVID-19.

According to the authors, “The historical record may provide a richer and more useful understanding of the range of medium- and long-term consequences… than even the most complex mathematical model.” And they go on to say: “Every established respiratory pandemic of the last 130 years has caused seasonal waves of infection and has culminated in viral endemicity.”

Heriot and Jamrozik’s article provides a much-needed antidote to the Government’s modelling malady and is worth reading in full.

By Noah Carl  /  22 June 2021 • 11.26
     
41 comments

Freeing Up Overseas Travel in Coming Months “Difficult”, Says Matt Hancock

Unmoved by the discovery that fewer than one in 200 travellers from “Amber List” countries are testing positive for Covid when back in Britain, the Health Secretary says that it will be “difficult” to free up international travel over the coming months. The Government is concerned that relaxing travel restrictions could undo the success of the vaccine roll-out.

While the MailOnline reports that fully vaccinated Brits could be exempted from quarantine rules linked to Amber List countries from August (despite Matt Hancock saying that the move is not currently “clinically advised”), it seems unlikely that the number of countries on the “Green List”, which frees all travellers from the requirement to self-isolate, will increase much in the near future.

The Independent has more.

At present, the only viable holiday destinations from which quarantine is not required are Gibraltar and Iceland. Many other locations have far lower rates of coronavirus than the U.K., and the travel industry is calling for a rapid expansion of the… “Green List”.

The next review is due on Thursday, with Malta, Italy, Morocco and Spain’s Balearic islands all candidates for moving from the Amber List to Green…

On Sky News, Matt Hancock said the vaccine programme had freed up “a huge number of the restrictions here at home”. But he warned: “It is more difficult freeing up international travel.

“We have one of the tightest border control systems in the world and we have that because we want to protect this amazing progress we’ve made at home with the vaccination programme…

“We’ll get there when it’s safe to do so.”

The travel industry is staging a day of action at Westminster on Wednesday, calling for fewer restrictions on going abroad and financial support for agents, operators and airlines.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  22 June 2021 • 11.21
     
50 comments

News Round-Up

By Jonathan Barr  /  22 June 2021 • 02.25
 
49 comments

Five Year-Olds Are Suffering Panic Attacks About Meeting Friends After More Than a Year of Lockdowns

It’s not just adults who have been affected by the Covid campaign of fear. Children as young as five are now having panic attacks over meeting their friends following more than a year of lockdowns, according to the Telegraph.

Experts said young children had become increasingly anxious, with some fearful of leaving their homes, amid an explosion in “locked-in trauma” across the country.

Waits of up to four years for help on the NHS have forced a growing number of families to seek help from private psychologists – only to find that they are oversubscribed and unable to take on more patients, a Telegraph investigation reveals.

Leading private therapists said they are taking twice the normal level of calls from worried parents, forcing them to turn away patients, or open waiting lists for the first time in their careers.

Experts said many children were suffering behavioural problems fuelled by lockdowns, social distancing and fear of infection, with many now anxious about everyday social activities…

Dame Rachel De Souza, Children’s Commissioner for England, said a survey of more than 550,000 children – the largest such poll in history – will show mental health to be the greatest concern of this generation of children.

She said her visits across the country, as part of a forthcoming commission, had found children suffering “locked-in trauma” and struggling to adjust to changes to their lives since the pandemic…

Dame Rachel told [a meeting run by the NHS Confederation]: “I’ve been around the country and seen those sad little faces… putting their arms around their friends as they tell me about having their trauma from losing a grandparent, not being able to go to a funeral. Coming out of lockdown and not knowing how to make friends anymore, not knowing how to talk to anyone else,” she said…

During the 12 months since the first lockdown, 420,504 children and young people have received NHS treatment for mental health problems, an 11% rise in two years.

But experts say this is just a tiny proportion of those who need help.

Child Psychologist Maryhan Baker has seen demand for her services double in recent months, with average waiting times jumping from two weeks to nearly four months.

“I’m working longer hours and more evenings to fit more people in but the demand is beyond my own individual capability,” she said.

She said many parents who approached her for help had been warned by GPs “not to bother” waiting for an NHS appointment.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better. There are a lot of children who were maybe just a bit anxious before the pandemic presenting now with compulsions, eating disorders, self-harm and other control behaviours,” she said.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  22 June 2021 • 00.01
     
40 comments

Vaccine Safety Update

This is the sixth of the weekly round-ups of Covid vaccine safety reports and news compiled by a group of medical doctors who are monitoring developments but prefer to remain anonymous in the current climate (find the fifth one here). By no means is this part of an effort to generate alarm about the vaccines or dissuade anyone from getting inoculated. It should be read in conjunction with Lockdown Sceptics‘ other posts on vaccines, which include both encouraging and not so encouraging developments. At Lockdown Sceptics we report all news about the vaccines whether positive or negative and give no one advice about whether they should or should not take them. Unlike with lockdowns, we are neither pro-vaccine nor anti-vaccine; we see our job as to report the facts, not advocate for or against a particular policy. The vaccine technology is novel and the vaccines have not yet fully completed their trials, which is why they’re in use under temporary and not full market authorisation. This has been done on account of the emergency situation and the trial data was largely encouraging on both efficacy and safety. For a summary of that data, see this preamble to the Government’s page on the Yellow Card reporting system. (Dr Tess Lawrie recently wrote an open letter to Dr June Raine, head of the MHRA, arguing that: “The MHRA now has more than enough evidence on the Yellow Card system to declare the COVID-19 vaccines unsafe for use in humans“, a claim that has been “fact checked” here.) We publish information and opinion to inform public debate and help readers reach their own conclusions about what is best for them, based on the available data.

  • Dr Robert Malone, the inventor of mRNA and DNA vaccine technology, has expressed concern about the safety profile of the current Covid vaccines and the censorship of discussing the issues, and called for them to be properly investigated as a matter of urgency. See also his appearance on Bret Weinstein’s podcast (deleted from YouTube) along with Steve Kirsch, who has written of his concerns about the vaccines here.
  • The UKMFA has written an open letter objecting to a report on BBC Newsround (a children’s television news programme) by Professor Devi Sridhar, Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, about vaccine efficacy and safety.
  • Researchers at RCSI have published a study in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis in which they show that COVID-19 patients had higher levels of pro-clotting VWF molecules and lower levels of the anti-clotting ADAMTS13. This has yet to be applied to clots in vaccinated patients but may have implications.
  • A study in the British Journal of Ophthalmology noted the occurrence of corneal transplant rejection after vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines.  
  • In Public Health England’s latest Variants of Concern Technical Briefing, the fully vaccinated have a 0.64% chance of death after testing positive for the Delta Variant whereas unvaccinated individuals have a 0.096% chance of death – a seventh of the risk. However, this is likely to be primarily a result of the much younger age profile of the unvaccinated.
  • Dr. Diego Rubinowicz, a Urologist in Palm Beach County Hospital, has observed increased PSA levels in vaccinated men, leading to possible misdiagnosis of prostate cancers.
  • EudraVigilance – the equivalent of the Yellow Card reporting system in the EU – has logged reports claiming 15,472 people have died and 1,654,407 have suffered injuries following receipt of the Covid vaccines in the EU.
  • VAERS – the American version of the Yellow Card reporting system – released new data on June 11th bringing the total to 358,379 reports of adverse events following Covid vaccines, including 5,993 deaths and 29,871 serious injuries between December 14th 2020 and June 11th 2021.
  • Suspected adverse events in the U.K. as reported in the media: Vanessa Newton (45); Lucy Taberer (47); Sophia Gomes (43).

Summary of Adverse Events UK

According to an updated report published on June 17th (covering the period up to June 9th), the MHRA Yellow Card reporting system has recorded a total of 949,287 events, based on 276,867 reports. The total number of fatalities reported is 1,332.

  • Pfizer (15.6 million first doses, 10.8 million second doses) now has one Yellow Card in 372 doses, 2.9 adverse reactions (i.e., symptoms) per card. 
  • AstraZeneca (24.6 million first doses, 17.7 million second doses) has one Yellow Card in 211 doses, 3.6 adverse reactions per card.
  • Moderna (0.56 million first doses) has one Yellow Card in 130 doses, 2.8 adverse reactions per card.

Vaccine Safety UpdateRead More

By Will Jones  /  21 June 2021 • 23.49
       
44 comments

Did the Conservatives lose the Chesham and Amersham By-Election Because of ‘Shy’ Sceptics?

A reader called Alex Body has shared a letter they’ve written to Thérése Coffey MP, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, about the role that lockdown scepticism may have played in the Conservatives’ recent by-election loss in Chesham and Amersham.

Dear Ms. Coffey,

In the wake of the Chesham and Amersham by-election I wanted to write to you to make sure you are not taking your seat for granted.

Whilst much has been reported about the impact of planning law on this particular election result, my analysis is much different.

This seat has not had a turnout of less than fifty thousand since 2005. The turnout in this election was less than forty thousand. The difference in voters between the 2021 and 2019 elections was over eleven-thousand votes. Enough to give the Conservative candidate a majority.

Please understand that there are now millions of people in the UK who are unrepresented by any major party due to the across-the-board support for draconian and hugely damaging pandemic restrictions. Whilst many traditional Conservatives will simply abstain in the next election, please bear in mind that if you continue to support these destructive measures that have brought misery, anxiety, despair and death to so many I, like many others, will actively campaign against your re-election.

The UK recently recorded the lowest age-adjusted deaths on record, and it is now obvious that the vulnerable are protected from this virus. End these restrictions now, or there is no doubt in my mind your party will suffer a crushing defeat at the next election, where millions of your traditional voters will stay at home.

You may be aware of the concept of a ‘Shy Tory Voter’. Please be prepared for the ‘Shy Lockdown Sceptic’. There are millions of us, and we feel it is impossible to support a party that disregards the autonomy and liberty of its citizens.

You still have time to change tack, and I implore you to do so.

With very best wishes,

Alex Brody

By Toby Young  /  21 June 2021 • 17.15
     
102 comments

Does the Current Rise in Infections Prove the Virus isn’t Seasonal?

We’re publishing an original piece today by a retired Professor of Forensic Science and Biological Anthropology and an epidemiologist with a PhD from a Russell Group university asking whether the recent rise in infections from the Delta variant invalidates the hypotheses that SARS-CoV-2 is a seasonal virus. After all, if it was, you’d expect it to be declining in the U.K. and across other northern latitudes. But they suspect infections have peaked and are about to start falling. Here is an extract:

Does the recent rise in infections in the U.K. – despite mass vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) – presage a substantial third wave in the summer? Does this rise effectively falsify the seasonality hypothesis?

Well, according to the Government’s own data, percent positivity in England is reported at 2.7 for the most recent available day (June 15th), having more than doubled from 1.3 on June 15th. Infections – number of positive tests reported – present a more complicated picture. They leapt to around 9,000 per day in England from 17th to June 18th, having almost plateaued at about 6,500 the week before. However, this jump occurred after the Government’s announcement of June 14th and may already be about to decline. The percentage change in the 7-day case rate has shown a steady fall since June 7th.

Worth reading in full.

By Toby Young  /  21 June 2021 • 16.56
   
37 comments

“Your Obedience Is Prolonging This Nightmare”: Protesters March in London against Delay to “Freedom Day”

Protesters have gathered in London today to demonstrate against the Government’s delay to the lifting of lockdown restrictions. People held signs reading “Lockdown is a crime against humanity” and “Your obedience is prolonging this nightmare”. Eight arrests have been made at the protest, according to the Metropolitan Police.

The MailOnline has more.

Maskless anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown protesters have clashed with police in central London as they demonstrate against the delay of “Freedom Day” by blocking roads and hugging strangers in defiance of Covid rules…

Protestors offering “free hugs” and demanding an end to all Covid restrictions held signs reading “your obedience is prolonging this nightmare” and “our kids aren’t lab rats” as they marched through the streets…

Loud horns blown by the protestors were seen to spook a group of half-a-dozen police horses who had been drafted in to help control the crowd in Parliament Square.

The protest comes as Boris Johnson seemed to dismiss the prospect of easing the remaining coronavirus rules early, as he refused to rule out future lockdowns. He warned the nation should brace for a ‘rough winter’ whilst visiting a laboratory in Hertfordshire today.

The Prime Minister has delayed ‘Freedom Day’ by four weeks to July 19th – but a two-week review will take place on July 5th to see if the return to normal can be moved forward. Mr Johnson said ‘Delta’ variant cases, hospitalisations and admissions to intensive care are still rising and the country must therefore be ‘cautious’.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  21 June 2021 • 15.37
       
68 comments

“You Can Never Exclude the Possibility that There Will be Some New Disease,” Says Boris Johnson as he Warns of “Rough Winter” Ahead

Despite talking of the U.K.’s long, slow lockdown easing as “irreversible”, the Prime Minister today told reporters that an anticipated resurgence of Covid, flu and other diseases means there may be a “rough winter” ahead. Noting that hospitalisations and ICU numbers are up around 30%, Boris Johnson said:

You can never exclude the possibility that there will be some new disease, some new horror we haven’t budgeted for or accounted for… but I think it’s looking good for July 19th to be that terminus point. Things like flu may come back this winter, we may have a rough winter for all sorts of reasons – but that is all the more reason to reduce Covid cases now, give the NHS the breathing space it needs now.

His comments suggest that the reason for the hugely costly decision to defer ‘freedom day’ for a month was to “reduce Covid cases” and “give the NHS the breathing space it needs”. That raises the alarming possibility that restrictions might be re-imposed whenever some pessimistic, unverified modelling suggests the NHS might come ‘under pressure’ during the winter – despite the fact that the NHS comes ‘under pressure’ almost every winter.

There are many criticisms that could be made of this, including that there is no real-world evidence that lockdowns make any significant impact on the course of a COVID-19 epidemic, and that it shows a very narrow and warped sense of priorities when it comes to managing public affairs and public health.

But besides that, even on its own terms it makes no sense to “give the NHS breathing space” by continuing or re-imposing restrictions. Since the main reason experts are so worried about flu this year is they are concerned that lockdowns and social distancing have successfully suppressed flu and other pathogens and left people unexposed to them and thus more vulnerable. In addition to this, Matt Hancock warned last week that the backlog in the NHS of people in need of elective procedures such as hip, knee and eye operations is now estimated to be as high as 12.2 million, resulting in the NHS facing the “biggest pressure in its history”.

But where is this pressure coming from? By the Government’s own admission, the backlog is caused by people staying away from the health service. So how can re-imposing restrictions and stoking panic be the solution to pressure caused by the very restrictions and panic that led people to avoid seeking medical treatment? The only way to break out of this vicious circle is to accept that lockdowns cause more problems than they solve.

“You Can Never Exclude the Possibility that There Will be Some New Disease,” Says Boris Johnson as he Warns of “Rough Winter” AheadRead More

By Will Jones  /  21 June 2021 • 14.49
         
117 comments

Plans for “Booster” Covid Vaccine Roll-Out Coming Within Weeks

Health Secretary Matt Hancock says that plans for a “booster” Covid vaccine roll-out in the autumn will be set out in the coming weeks. BBC News has the story.

The Health Secretary said ministers were waiting for results from trials of different combinations of vaccines.

It comes after doctors and NHS trusts said planning for a booster rollout must start now as it will involve bigger challenges. 

They said many questions needed answering, including how long immunity from the original Covid jab lasts.

The issue of whether children will be vaccinated also still remains, health leaders said.

“We are currently trialling which combinations of jabs are the most effective,” Mr Hancock told BBC Breakfast. 

“In the next few weeks, when we get the clinical data through on what’s the most effective combinations to have… then we’ll set out all the details for the booster programme for the autumn.”

Among the ongoing trials is the U.K.’s Cov-Boost trial, which is testing different combinations of third doses across England. 

A senior Government source said the U.K. would also benefit from new vaccines from Novavax and Valneva, which are awaiting approval from the U.K.’s medicines regulator. 

So far, nearly 60% of U.K. adults have had two jabs of the vaccine, meaning they are fully vaccinated, and more than four in five adults have had their first dose.

People have been rushing to get their vaccines in recent days, with more than one million jabs booked on Friday and Saturday in England after vaccinations opened to all over-18s.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon  /  21 June 2021 • 14.05
     
82 comments