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zoe app

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lordsnooty
Posts: 636
Topic starter
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 years ago

The Zoe App has previously been very sensitive for detecting the peaks in infection, this plot show the peak of the winter infection, the signature of approaching the peak has been progressively larger positive daily case count increments, followed by an almost instant reduction in case count increments as the peak occurs and then a period of progressively larger -ve daily case count increments as the peak recedes.

Tim Spector and I were duped around June25 into presuming we were nearing the peak of the current summer wave, there was a definite wobble, but it started up again. The next plot show the vague wobblethat duped us before resumption to latest datapoint today. So the disease is still rapidly expanding, according to counters of symptoms.

So I have drill in a bit deeper and ploted each daily increment over the last weeks, this is a way of zooming in on the direction of the infections curve.This form of analysis shows another wobble, very recent peaking on July 3, after which the extra cases stabilise and start to fall back. What can this mean? Is the summer peak nearing? Perhaps.

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Posts: 1608
(@splatt)
Joined: 3 years ago

Remember Zoe changed its methodology lately where even runny nose/headache can get classed as covid. That wont help.

A better analogue here would be look at India.
When 617.2 appeared it ripped through then dropped back. It took roughly 7 weeks to rise and a further 7 to fall naturally.

Its quite possible that's what we've been seeing here in which case you'd expect the peak in 2-3 weeks or so time.

A much higher R0 meaning it rips through available hosts rapidly, runs out and drops off just as rapidly vs wild type.

I suspect the UK peak/predictions were messed up by 617.2 slowly replacing good old .117 in frequency so muddled up the data somewhat in terms of rates.
We effectively had 2 separate disease curves being merged into one at that point.

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Posts: 591
(@coronanationstreet)
Joined: 3 years ago

Am I missing something? Wouldn't it be better not to worry about infection rates and just focus on treating people with therapeutics? How much did they spend on the test and trace system, wasn't it somewhere near a billion pounds? Instead of focusing on managing the behavioural routines of a whole population wouldn't it be better just to treat symptomatic people and not focus on creating endless representations of possible cases? If this is, largely, non-lethal, and, also treatable, instead of destroying the fabric of civic relationships that subtends the economy, wouldn't it be better to just deal with it medically until everyone who will get it has had it and we don't have to negotiate with these compromised agencies like the WHO and whoever is behind that?

A novel idea. You should be advising the govt instead of the vested scientific, sociopolitical and financial interests which currently are.

Difficult to herd the population into different streams of righteous and sinful by simply treating them when they get ill, rather than branding them by whether they have been pre-treated with vaccines.

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lordsnooty
Posts: 636
Topic starter
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 years ago

Am I missing something?

yes, you've missed the point. But I'll wake you up when the summer peak occurs.

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lordsnooty
Posts: 636
Topic starter
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 years ago

Am I missing something?
Quite likely vitamin D, along with the rest of us.

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