27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
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Q10
 Q10
(@q10)
Joined: 1 week ago
Posts: 7
Topic starter  

Hi, I wonder whether some of you could help me with this query: A close relative of mine has contacted me and made an urgent plea for me to get jabbed asap with Pfizer or Moderna. He is a Hospital Doctor (Geriatrics) in Germany and when discussing the side effects and deaths reported through Yellow Card following vaccination, he has said that the death rate from Covid is significantly higher. He claims that for my age (54) the death rate when catching Covid is 0.6%, where as the reported deaths or severe side effects after vaccination are more in the region of 1 in 5000, i.e. 0.02 %. On this basis he says that it is a no brainer for me to take the vaccine, especially as in the UK now case numbers are going to be much higher due to absent restrictions. 
I have so far been comfortable with my decision not take the vaccine and was also hoping that i might not even get Covid. Now I am confused and unsure in my decision. I am not asking you to make a decision for me, but rather to get a handle on the scary figure of infection fatality rate. I am quite aware of the difficulty of calculating this figure but what do you make of it and how does it compare with the risks following vaccination?  

thanks. 


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halfhearted
(@halfhearted)
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 90
 

This bulletin from the WHO deals with the Covid IFR "Publication: Bulletin of the World Health Organization; Type: Research, Article ID: BLT.20.265892"

You can read it here.

It says that in people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%. So, being 54, this applies to you. This is 10 times less than your close relative's estimate. I suggest you ask him where he got the figure of 0.6%.


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FreedomFighter3
(@freedomfighter3)
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 31
 

The problem you are facing here is the actual definition of a " covid death". The Covid fatality, unlike any other cause of death, is now death with a postive test within 28 days. Covid is not the driver of death in most cases. A study in the US showed that in just 6% of "deaths with covid" was covid the primary cause of death.

So the stats being given based on that basis are patently absurd statistics.

You can tell the statistics are false by analysing the other causes of deaths. Because dead bodies can't be invented and they must match death certificates, the govt/health service have to alter the death certificates to keep the numbers up.

Simply put, it appears that respiratory deaths especially, flu, pneumonia, chronic lower respiratory disease, plus cancer, heart disease and all other major causes of death are being mislabled as "covid" (using the knowingly flawed pcr test).

Unless there is another explanation I can't think of why all major causes of death would fall when covid appears, but there is no significant excess death.


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FreedomFighter3
(@freedomfighter3)
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 31
 

So to answer your question, the vaccine is far more dangerous to a healthy person than covid which is a flu effectively.


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MikeAustin
(@mikeaustin)
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 1156
 

@halfhearted Yes. And factor in the chances of getting covid-19. Once the jab is taken, there will be a 100% chance of risking its adverse effects.


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jmc
 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 502
 
Posted by: @q10

Hi, I wonder whether some of you could help me with this query: 

...

I have so far been comfortable with my decision not take the vaccine and was also hoping that i might not even get Covid. Now I am confused and unsure in my decision. I am not asking you to make a decision for me, but rather to get a handle on the scary figure of infection fatality rate. I am quite aware of the difficulty of calculating this figure but what do you make of it and how does it compare with the risks following vaccination?  

thanks. 

 

The 0.6% is nothing more that an estimate based on a model from the RKI.  The true IFR can only be accurately determined after the epidemic has runs its course. When you can find out just how many people got an infection by population studies. Symptomatic and asymptotic. The asymptotic infection estimate  used by the RKI models is not consistent with actual SARs 2 viral pneumonia  cases seen by age group. It understates it by a factor of around two. 

The other big problem with the IFR estimate for SARs CoV 2 is the Case Fatality Rate. Which is used to calculate  the Infection Fatality Rate. It uses an non standard definition of "case" when compared with all other epidemic infectious diseases.  With SARs CoV 1 for example a case was a patient diagnosed with viral pneumonia who then had a positive SARs 1 active infection test. With SARs CoV 2 a case is anyone with a positive test result for a non clinically valid screening test. Divide official SARS 2 case numbers by at least 10 and you might start getting actual equivalent numbers.

When you add in that the IFR only applies to the 30% to 40% of the population who might get an infection before it becomes endemic you can see that your relative  is comparing two complete different risk numbers. The actual risk of a medical procedure versus the greatly overstated risk of a potential viral infection.  If you actually caught it and it became symptomatic.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
 
Posted by: @q10

I am quite aware of the difficulty of calculating this figure but what do you make of it and how does it compare with the risks following vaccination?  

Do you trust Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tamm, or some loud geezers on a website?


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beornwulf
(@beornwulf)
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 8
 

Q10. You're a mere youngster. This 70-year old is quite frankly sick to death of graphs, statistics and the suchlike. From the outset of this whole episode I was aware of the concocted fear factor - like Laura Dodsworth, the author of the brilliant book 'The State of Fear', I was shocked early on by people's strange behaviour.  I vowed not to look at any MSM news about COVID, and I've maintained that position.  Fear is the killer punch that lies behind and maintains this whole charade. 

I have also followed the advice of a particular alternative health voice and have taken zinc, B12 and vitamin C to aid my immune system (also, on occasion, lemon balm and catsfoot), together with the avoidance of eggs and dairy in the diet.  I've also stayed active (I do tai chi daily) and have been out and about as much as possible.  Regarding the masks (or comfort blankets as Dr Colin Axon has recently called them), I've only worn one when I've been in a medical / pharmacy setting, just to avoid any awkwardness.  So, my approach has been to treat the whole thing with a silent contempt. Someone on this medium referred it as The Great Hoodwink and I agree.


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jmc
 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 502
 
Posted by: @lordsnooty
Posted by: @q10

I am quite aware of the difficulty of calculating this figure but what do you make of it and how does it compare with the risks following vaccination?  

Do you trust Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tamm, or some loud geezers on a website?

You mean the guy who had not the slightest problem with the official published IFR for SARs CoV 1 in 2003 being 2%...

Almost the same as the CFR

That guy?

The IFR that was used as the base value in all early guestimates for the IFR of SARs CoV 2 from Jan 2020 to early / mid summer 2020. And even when the first published clinical papers started being published in early March 2020 showing that the estimated probable IFR value was very like other HCOV's, so nothing like 2%, these papers were ignored for many months.

Thats the guy you are telling people to believe?

Yeah, sure..


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Q10
 Q10
(@q10)
Joined: 1 week ago
Posts: 7
Topic starter  

@halfhearted Thanks. That is a very helpful paper. I wonder whether there is something more recent? 


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Q10
 Q10
(@q10)
Joined: 1 week ago
Posts: 7
Topic starter  

@lordsnooty Unfortunately, my trust in the information provided by media and politicians has greatly decreased over the last 1.5 years. The inability to provide unbiased information and give spin to everything in order to influence behaviour has led to this caution. I need clean information that allows me to make up my mind without constantly someone trying to push me into one direction.  The government admits this openly, that they used scaretactics in order to increase the personal threat level so that people comply with measures and now the vaccine. So the answer to your question is: neither. i would like some proper evidence that is peer reviewed and is transparent so I can make up my mind. 

 


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Q10
 Q10
(@q10)
Joined: 1 week ago
Posts: 7
Topic starter  

@beornwulf Thanks for your experiences. I read the book you are quoting. Very interesting. 


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Q10
 Q10
(@q10)
Joined: 1 week ago
Posts: 7
Topic starter  

@jmc Thanks. Very interesting explanation about IFR and CFR. makes sense. 


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halfhearted
(@halfhearted)
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 90
 
Posted by: @q10

... I am quite aware of the difficulty of calculating this figure but what do you make of it and how does it compare with the risks following vaccination?.... 

You haven't given us much to work with here if you want a serious estimate of the risk that Covid might pose to you personally. All we have is your age, 54, and that you are in the UK. That isn't enough. There are plenty of other factors that would affect your risk. Let us know your general state of health including all relevant underlying health problems. Have a look at this NHS advice on who they assess as "high risk", "moderate risk" and "low risk". Which group are you in? Any respiratory problems or obesity? How have you reacted to vaccines in the past? 

Let's assume you are "low risk". If you're not planning on foreign travel I'd say there isn't much reason for a low risk person to get vaccinated. The case for healthy 54 year-olds being vaccinated has not been made. Do you live in close proximity with high/moderate risk people? Nobody wants to make other people sick, so this might change your mind.

You also need to remember that you won't get a choice about which vaccine you get. It's a matter for debate but in my opinion the AstraZeneca vaccine seems to have more side effects for older people, but having said that, the chances of serious side effects for a healthy 54 year-old seem small.

The government might decide at some point to persecute the unvaccinated. There is nothing much at the moment but who knows what the Winter will bring? Let's suppose they create a "booster" which will be added to the "Winter flu shot". Do you have the Winter flu shot? It may be impossible to obtain the "booster" unless you've had both previous vaccinations. Who knows? I can see that you might start to feel "left behind" if you have not had any vaccinations when other people in your demographic have had three - this psychological effect could be damaging even though the reality may be that the vaccinations themselves are completely pointless.

So, let us know more about your health & related issues. Or you may choose not to.


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beornwulf
(@beornwulf)
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 8
 

@halfhearted Hell, has it come to this that we have to spend our lives working out the statistics of risk.  Life is for living, not for cowering away because of the bogeymen we let into our imaginations.  As far as I know, the average age at death fron Covid stands at 81 or thereabouts. I've never been aware of people dropping in the streets, ambulances rushing around at all hours or the crematoria working flat out because of all the dead victims. Has anyone? I've been prepared to live with the risk of Covid whilst my immune system is still functioning, but I'm not prepared to take the risk of this so-called vaccine. Period. Answer me this. If it's so safe as the makers and promoters claim (such as Prof Dalgleish in today's Mail) why are they protected by an exemption from liabilty clause?  Also, as someone on LS pointed out when the vaccine programme started out, will the authorities be giving us the figures for deaths within 28 days of having a vaccine? Did one need to ask? 


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