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Are Deaths per 100,000 Actually Higher for Vaccinated?

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(@sonny)
Joined: 3 years ago

I've been suspicious of the number for the deaths per 100,000 given in the COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report so looked at it more closely. It seems they have used different figures for the numbers unvaccinated for the cases, emergency admissions and death calculations in tables 2, 3 and 4.

So I calculated an estimate of the populations they are using by calculating:

100000 * Number Unvaxed / Cases per 100,000

This gives a different number to:

100000 * Number Unvaxed / Deaths per 100,000

Surely they should be the same (taking into account any differences caused by rounding up or down up to 0.05)

So I decided to use the population figures calculated for unvaxed in table 2 (cases) and apply it to table 3 and table 4.

The result is that the overall deaths per 100,000 is higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated.

You can see a pic of the spreadsheet in this tweet.

https://twitter.com/TuhinRI1/status/1449693357949820932

Am I doing something wrong in my calculation?  Or have PHE accidentally/deliberately made a mistake?

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June 2024
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