Government has downgraded lockdown
Whether they know it or not, the Government has downgraded lockdown.People fear the virus, and have supported both lockdown and vaccination as different ways to 'tackle' it.
Leaving aside whether they work, it is incoherent and hence wasteful to back both vaccines and lockdown. The public are realising; if lockdown worked, there would be no need for vaccination and if vaccination works there will be no need for lockdown.
It is necessary to choose one or the other, since either on its own is a nuisance. Take vaccination, for which primary healthcare will be rationed. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/06/exclusivegps-told-stand-routine-patients-focus-covid-vaccinations/
And Nightingale hospitals will become mega-vaccination centres, no resurgence is anticipated after this month.
Without many vulnerable people, we should expect lockdown support to plunge. Vaccination has totally gripped the public's attention. It would be regarded as murderous not to get the old folks jabbed by March. By choosing vaccination the government has rejected lockdown as a primary way to control the virus.
Boris is offering the public a deal saying vaccines offer “the means of escape” from lockdown. Like it or lump it, the public have seen the open door and now there is a stampede for vaccination. The government is now throwing everything at it but the kitchen sink. Tim Spector believes the second peak of the second wave will be happening soon, or even has occurred in Wales, which he regards as a bell-weather.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG-8U5rIgfs
declines in case rates
It certainly looks like Wales is through amid winter peak judging by case rate data, which went into reverse all over Christmas. For weeks, I've believed they will target March 31 i.e. Easter as the end date for English and hence national lockdowns, and now it is written into law. By doing this, the government is setting expectations by turning slightly away from lockdown, and embracing vaccines. So, even as a new lockdown begins, the stage is set for the final curtain in ~ 11 weeks, or sooner if the cases slump.
The plan was always to lock everyone up until easter.
NHS is useless at the best of times in this period.
Then you'll have a summer of reduced restrictions like last year then retightening in the autumn "just to be safe".
There is certainly going to be nothing "normal" for all of 2021.
Wales cases dropped just before lockdown again. Its finished in the south and now hitting the north (where fewer people live so case rates will be lower).
Seasonal virus, working in waves as it spreads. Just like any other virus.
Then you'll have a summer of reduced restrictions like last year then retightening in the autumn "just to be safe".
Perhaps, I think that depends on cases, admissions, icu admissions and deaths (call them caids for short), which in turn depend on lockdowns (to delay), vaccines and weather to reduce . Without the cover of caids, their arguments instantly become threadbare.
I don't think they can rely on public support for lockdowns after the caids dry up; people are generally supportive as long as they see a need. we might actually be on the verge of vindication. I think we need to remember this: it is unusual for people to enjoy or tolerate house arrest. They can only do so temporarily. Sooner or later, the natural tendencies will come back to normal.
Boris said in the 5th Jan pressy that, for the sake of mental health (and he looked a bit deranged himself as he said it!) clearly the best thing for everybody is to get through this as fast as possible, so you may be slightly over-egging the pessimism, Splatt. I think you are getting a bit fed up, eh?Me too.
Robert Peston asked about the schedule for getting out of lockdown, and Boris again replied he wants to get through it fast, and even mentioned the prospect of a Spring or mid-february relaxation, which is much sooner than even I had thought.
Witty was asked how normal will life be once vulnerable jabbed, he sees the risks dropping lower and lower in small steps until there are barely any measures, but politics will drive it until risk rises again. People don't vote for their own jailers, usually. Zero risk is impossible he says. he might be right there, I only foresee booster shots for lapsed immunity next winter, perhaps combined with flu jabs.
Perhaps, I think that depends on cases, admissions, icu admissions and deaths (call them caids for short), which in turn depend on lockdowns (to delay), vaccines and weather to reduce . Without the cover of caids, their arguments instantly become threadbare.
They'll go up in autumn. Always does.
NHS will crumble in Autumn because it always does.
Its a seasonal virus doing what they all do.
I don't think they can rely on public support for lockdowns after the caids dry up; people are generally supportive as long as they see a need.
I used to think that but now changed my mind. Its INCREDIBLY easy to terrify people at periodic intervals to keep a sufficient number of them cowed and supporting it.
Add that to "Just one last push" and they'll get away with it.
Boris said in the 5th Jan pressy that, for the sake of mental health (and he looked a bit deranged himself as he said it!) clearly the best thing for everybody is to get through this as fast as possible, so you may be slightly over-egging the pessimism,
Why believe a word Boris says? He's got advisors and psychologists to tell him exactly what to say in his speeches, all carefully measured to ensure compliance and just enough hope.
He had the right idea for 3 days before Ferguson convinced him to abandon it. Then he got covid worse than 99.9% of sufferers and came back a changed, terrified man.
Robert Peston asked about the schedule for getting out of lockdown, and Boris again replied he wants to get through it fast, and even mentioned the prospect of a Spring or mid-february relaxation, which is much sooner than even I had thought.
Meaningless, again designed to dangle a thread of hope to ensure compliance.
Remember it was all over by last easter, then summer, then autumn, then Christmas as well.
People don't vote for their own jailers, usually. Ze
They do, keep them terrified and enough will, as now, demand to be locked up. Stockholm syndrome is a very real thing.
Once the volunteers for their Jabs have had plus the vulnerable groups who choose to have it what happens if lockdown ends..are the sceptics going to be given an island to move to? Or anyone not had the vaccine must remain at home and carry on with the draconian rules...would love to see how this pans out given that the majority in France dont want it..as I said before I am watching to see what Macron's next move is there.....
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