OK I Think it's actually because many people got diagnosed in hospital - so they weren't admitted with Covid.
There's another tab in the sheet that indicates inpatient diagnoses total
That's a lot higher.
That makes the numbers less good. As you need to add 85,622 to the 23,545 = 109,167 cases
3,358,800/109,167=1 person in 30.76
Still much better than 1 in 20... but still sounds bad...however not all that informative as you could have already been in hospital, caught covid in hospital, then been diagnosed with covid but it's not the real reason you're in there. So without further detail on those figures a bit meaningless 🙁
Iceland had considerably the best surveillance in the early stages of the pandemic. This picked up (to mid June) 1830 infected, 120 hospitalised, 30 ICU and 12 deaths
Later seroprevalence testing suggested that many more infections have been missed and that the real number infected (from a population of 360000) was around 5200. And that'll exclude anyone who developed only a T cell response
So 30/1800 = 1.67% and 30/5200 = 0.59% Take your pick..... either way it's a lot less than 5% (one in 20)
If you take the UK there are about 4200 ICU beds, increased somewhat for the pandemic. Presently 5000-7000 infections per day are being reported. So, if you say 6000, one in 20 would be 300/day needing ICU care for say 7 days apiece. If that was the case, half the ICU beds (7 x 300 = 2100) would be full of COVID patients and there'd be a worse panic than there is. So 1 in 20 is clearly wrong.
The latest averaged values that I have for admissions to cases is 1:16.3, and for ventilator beds to hospitalised cases is 1:7.4. This makes the ratio of ventilator beds to cases 1:120 at the moment, if one can merge the probabilities this way.
I have charted the product of these two probabilities from 2 April, which is the first day that all of the data was available. The average is 1 in 36.7.
If defined by bed use, the cases are not nearly as serious as they were. But it is interesting that the percentage of ventilator bed use has been fairly constant for the last two months.
As well as admissions, static ventilator bed use could be an early indication that we are not going to get the rapid increase in deaths that the harbingers of doom suggest.
Thanks for these responses 🙂
