Preprint from Singapore goes some way to explaining why case control isnt working anywhere and why the CDC is crapping itself:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf+html
TLDR:- For the first 6 days or so (ie when people are infectious) the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated was essentially the same. From that it would appear that transmission is unchanged.
Ultimately its yet another study showing that vaccine passports are scientifically worthless as they'll do nothing to reduce transmission.
TLDR:- For the first 6 days or so (ie when people are infectious) the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated was essentially the same. From that it would appear that transmission is unchanged.
Ultimately its yet another study showing that vaccine passports are scientifically worthless as they'll do nothing to reduce transmission.
That conclusion does not actually follow. The pfizer vaccine has a 91.3% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 infection.And you cannot transmit covid19 unless you are infected.
Firstly untrue. You can transmit if not actively infected as you can carry around viable particles.
Most data now is showing VE against infection and delta is in the 40% region even for Pfizer so yes. And once infected you spread it every bit as well as unvaccinated.
Ultimately all its showing is vaccination is for the person and person alone, no protection offered to others.
The vaccines are doing what was intended - reducing serious illness and death. What they're not doing is what people hoped but werent designed for - reducing transmission.
Factoring in in the VEs and a vaccinated population with Delta has the same Rt as an unvaccinated population with Alpha.
And to update this, NHSTT data out today for England pretty much confirms this study.
Ultimately it blows out of the water any of the claimed benefits of a vaccine passport.
You cant even argue spread is reduced. Its not.
There is a remarkably honest article in the Telegraph about Covid transmission, which is saying basically we don't know how the illness gets from one infected person into another person. The research is patchy and inconclusive. The evidence for aerosolisation is almost non-existent. She even quotes Heneghan. Professor Tom Jefferson says "The whole field is plagued by poor quality studies". He isn't making a pun. Haha.
Well we know its not fomite or droplets. Plenty of data.
We know the transmission mechanisms for the other HCoVs and more generally respiratory viruses as a whole.
Its not binary, there is going to be aerosolisation and pure airborne mixed. It explains why many of the NPIs have been almost totally ineffective and ventilation, the main thing ignored early on, is one of the best.
He's right though - rigid, high standard academic research has gone out of the window in all this.
Its a race to preprint and the garbage that gets sent there most of which would never pass a peer review in 100 years. But it doesnt matter - churn out whatever you can that supports your point, get it out there, get more funding and let the media "decide" the accuracy of it instead of peer review and academic debate.
The journals love it too. Instead of the normal 3-6 months for peer review and publication, some authors and journals are doing it in 3 days. Absolutely no time at all for accurate, rigid review, critique or analysis.
Academic debate has virtually ceased. Everything is a binary "us or them" now. We see this on everything from lockdown efficacy, mask use, R rates, infection dynamics and so on. Absolutely nothing now is getting critically assessed and its trial by media not trial by scientific method.
The vital critique phase has been stripped from discourse.
Public health policy now contains almost no traditional scientific method or rationale.
The Delta variant is the most contagious version yet of the coronavirus. It accounts for 83 percent of infections in the United States. The variant may also be mainly responsible for a recent rise in infections. Delta may cause more breakthrough infections than earlier forms of the virus, but more than 99 percent of the hospitalizations and deaths are occurring among unvaccinated people. Rates of immunization in the country have stalled, with just under 60 percent of adults fully protected against the virus.
Where do you get the hospitalisations and deaths being 99% the unvaccinated?
A recent study reported by the CDC and conducted in Massachusetts showed something very different.
It appears that vaccination protection, such as it is, is shortlived.
Entirely to be expected, if one gives credence to the hypothesis that it is the vaccines themselves that generate the mutational shift and immune escape. That is in marked contrast to naturally acquired immunity, which is long-lived.
And when one also considers the possibility of an Antibody Dependent Enhancement response, if a vaccinated individual subsequently encounters the virus, then one might reasonably ask; 'What is the benefit of the vaccine?'.
Then we have the vaccine adverse events, including deaths. Over a million reported events in the UK, with the majority of these resulting from the second jab. How many adverse reactions will a third booster jab cause? Nobody knows...
And I am not aware of any studies addressing the issue of the cumulative effects of serial vaccination. (We don't have any data on the longterm effects of the two dose regimen, let alone three or more.)
There is a parallel here...
"If the first and second lockdown didn't work, let's have another one.."
Apply that to vaccination, and you have an endless extension of the control overreach and potentially the vaccine status apartheid.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf
During July 2021, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, were identified among Massachusetts residents; vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%. Approximately three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vac-cinated persons (those who had completed a 2-dose course of mRNA vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna] or had received a single dose of Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] vac-cine ≥14 days before exposure). Genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in 119 (89%) and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%). Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic. Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated..
