Out of interest, where are you getting your daily death figures from?
Per the coronavirus.data website, the daily death count (by ‘date of death’ instead of the rather meaningless ‘date reported’ measure) has been consistently and steadily below 600 per day once you’ve given a bit of time to see deaths reported allocated to the correct day, which doesn’t seem to be following the uptick in infection levels.
danlondon
sorry - if you were asking me rather than the OP, I use
Worldometers:UK showing on a 7 day average 57,702 cases and 714 deaths yesterday. I note yesterday they started publishing data again for recovereds first time since April or May last year. But can't find it on the ONS site. The recovered number implies for about 2.9M cases and 78k deaths that 1,446,090 have neither died nor recovered.
The goverment / ]ONS daily data is the same. Its updated 16:30ish daily but the averaged data which looks to be 7 days in arrears.
For the ONS Data
CovidZOE app site which shows 69231 UK-wide symptomatic cases today reported through the app, slightly down on yesterday and a predicted 824139 infected persons in UK slightly up on yesterday.
Hope this helps.
Out of interest, where are you getting your daily death figures from?
Per the coronavirus.data website, the daily death count (by ‘date of death’ instead of the rather meaningless ‘date reported’ measure) has been consistently and steadily below 600 per day once you’ve given a bit of time to see deaths reported allocated to the correct day, which doesn’t seem to be following the uptick in infection levels.
The daily update,
data provided on 8 January 2021,Daily 1,325
On the 5th of January, I wrote:
In two weeks, we will be seeing deaths of 2,300 per day.
Now two weeks later we see 1,820 deaths.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-covid-news-vaccine-uk-lockdown-deaths-cases-scotland/
OK, I was pessimistic, but it is close enough to verify the prediction. Had I used symptomatic cases it would have been almost spot on, 1748. So there you have it, take the symptomatic on a given day from the ZOE app, multiply that by 0.0023 (infection fatality rate) and you get the number of deaths in two weeks. Let's do it now
In zoe app, current cases = 678448 * 0.0023 = 1560 on the 2nd Feb. It's getting better but it's getting better slow.
I don't know who those 1560 people are, but I'm sad for them, I just hope I'm not amongst them.
Fon, to be scientifically consistent you should at least use the same sources as you used early Jan. The Telegraph is merely reporting some peak data Vallance trots out to support his agenda. ONS data indicates 1039.3 Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death. And 1077 on that day, 13th Jan. I'll wait for another 6 days to 19th Jan to see what the peak reported deaths are.
