Therefore does anyone have a feeling of when the tipping point will be

Slumps in hospital admissions and deaths are the best predictors of when the tipping point will occur, which, as I say below, should be in March. However it largely depends on the weather! A warm February could work wonders.

Politicians are mostly watching cases, cases amongst the vulnerable, hospital admissions, icu admissions, and deaths.

At present hospital admissions and deaths are rising steeply, but this will start to change since vaccines work better than lockdowns. if they get to 1 million jabs per week, it will take until
end of april to get through most of the vulnerable group.

Considering the combined effects of lockdown, natural and induced immunity and seasonality. I'd expect the virus to start losing steam latest March and April. That's a wild-arsed guess though. I imagine the virus might run out of steam, on say March 20th, which will lead to a rapid slump in cases/ hospitalisations. Until then costs just continue to mount.

‪ https://fb.watch/2wJ_8wsLXs/‬

‪I do hope Fon’s right: that come April life will have returned to normal’ish, but that would seem to me to be the best case scenario.

‪Bill Gates says in the above clip that the pandemic will probably end in 12-18 months ie when the world’s population is vaccinated. Leaving aside his dichotomous hard-on for mass vaccination and decreasing world populations simultaneously, no doubt his thinking is in line with most governments’ thinking. Locking people away from others may slow the spread of the aim is zero Covid deaths.

Perhaps I’m too cynical but I believe they’re not going to let this pandemic fade away after April without first putting a serious wad of cash in their own and their friends (and neighbours’) pockets, especially if this vaccine needs topping up bi-yearly forevermore.

‪Early on in the Pandemic, via the government’s nudge unit and fear-mongering, people emotionally committed to the minor rays of hope given: masks, s-distancing, vaccines and now will not pay any heed to conflicting facts or opinions, marches/demo’s, pamphlets or stickers, no matter how persuasive. Ostensibly it seems the more facts produced, the more entrenched people become in their lockdown enthusiasm and the more they’re convinced that questioners are monumentally selfish, deluded, brainwashed, ignorant or stark raving.‬

‪I’m heartened that the legal route that Dr Michael Yeadon, Dr Wodarg et al seems to be gaining traction but I’m apprehensive it’s not quite enough to shift the public mood for reasons aforesaid and a majority tipping point might not ever materialise.‬

‪It seems to me we should set a back up plan so that if tiers & lockdowns aren’t over by 1 May after the vulnerable are vaccinated, we try something other than logic and only (which hasn’t worked so far) to win back a few more hearts and minds. ‬

‪How about we get together then to employ our own top notch marketing / branding company?

‪Perhaps even some of the UK signatories to the GBD would very kindly contribute a quid or so towards the budget to get some freedoms back before summer 2022?‬

‪Short aphoristic slogans and celebrity endorsements patently work well on us Brits. ‬

‪Perhaps us Skeptics could use catchier slogans?‬

‪NB sorry my post is so long! It’s taken me hours to write this so don’t expect any immediate pithy comebacks if you all disagree with me vehemently!‬

When will people reach #peaklockdown?
It takes a while but eventually it will dawn on them. I think everyone has their own internal risk vs benefits scales and it is individual as to when it tips.. (The key in all bad relationships is to cut the victim off from any outsiders. Stops them evaluating things. Seems like the "fact checking" / censoring of certain views fills this criteria.)

I think people who have been exposed to oppressive regimes or abuse will reach #peaklockdown before the people who get fear fatigue

Fear fatigue being that physically people can only accept a certain amount of maltreatment /torture before their bodies capacity to create cortisol or other stress hormones reduce and their behaviour changes. But the gov must know that hence constant changes of promises for Christmas and last minute change.

In fact this is interesting enough for me to make a graph of stress on /stress off to see if it makes some kind of pattern.

I would like to see that graph very much.

I didn’t know about fear fatigue or cortisol production limits.

Very interesting.

I wonder if it’s the inverse in principle to BDSM & sub space - which I have actually read up on in some detail. But there the inverse applies.
When will people reach #peaklockdown?
It takes a while but eventually it will dawn on them. I think everyone has their own internal risk vs benefits scales and it is individual as to when it tips.. (The key in all bad relationships is to cut the victim off from any outsiders. Stops them evaluating things. Seems like the "fact checking" / censoring of certain views fills this criteria.)

I think people who have been exposed to oppressive regimes or abuse will reach #peaklockdown before the people who get fear fatigue

Fear fatigue being that physically people can only accept a certain amount of maltreatment /torture before their bodies capacity to create cortisol or other stress hormones reduce and their behaviour changes. But the gov must know that hence constant changes of promises for Christmas and last minute change.

In fact this is interesting enough for me to make a graph of stress on /stress off to see if it makes some kind of pattern.