27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
The way out of this...
 
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The way out of this impasse?

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Splatt
Posts: 1609
(@splatt)
Joined: 1 year ago

I really have no idea how they can get out of that mindset.

They could start by growing up a bit. Look Splatt, lockdowns "work", i.e. they kick the can down the road, you've said so yourself.

Except thats not true, they kick the can down the road but make it fizzier. Even model provided shows the increase in case rate and R is significantly HIGHER than previously every time you lock down. So long term 2 months+ they make it far worse.

Now Mr Hancock's political life just might end in success, due to a vaccine,and that is why he was so relieved on the GMB show that he cried in front f millions, he has no pride he is exhausted like us all.

Hancock has gone. The only reason he's there is because nobody in their right mind will take over the poison chalice until the situation is returning to normal.

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fon
Posts: 1356
 fon
(@fon)
Joined: 12 months ago

I really have no idea how they can get out of that mindset.

lockdowns "work", i.e. they kick the can down the road,

kick the can down the road but make it fizzier.

That's a good analogy. I posit that there is jubilation after a lockdown. I remember after a welsh lockdown, I went to the pub and had to push my bike back as I stayed way too long. Once lockdown ends, everybody has pent up "social energy", hence the can is fizzier, and R shoots up a notch. Is it known, this effect, or just surmised, can it be measured, does it have a name? I'll call it the Splatt effect.
Hancock has gone. The only reason he's there is because nobody in their right mind will take over the poison chalice until the situation is returning to normal.

Yes, These pseudo-random lockdowns have given the virus a stochastic life of its own like an invisible roller coaster. Now it is on a random walk, which has ruined Mr Hancock's limited mental faculties, leaving him in hunched over in tears on breakfast TV. Hancock is bewildered.

Only something powerful can halt a roller coaster. Things powerful enough to do this are warm weather, vaccine or aligned political will.

Since warm weather is off until March at the earliest, and the Tory party is in a bout of mayhem, only the vaccine remains to halt the roller coaster. Apart from that, it's a long wait until Spring, Splatt, and that's why I'm taking the vaccine.

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Splatt
Posts: 1609
(@splatt)
Joined: 1 year ago

That's a good analogy. I posit that there is jubilation after a lockdown. I remember after a welsh lockdown, I went to the pub and had to push my bike back as I stayed way too long. Once lockdown ends, everybody has pent up "social energy", hence the can is fizzier, and R shoots up a notch. Is it known, this effect, or just surmised, can it be measured, does it have a name? I'll call it the Splatt effect.

It was modelled by SAGE in March and also Imperial in March (Report 9). It was analysed by the Lancet reviewing lockdown v1s and found the same.

It was also NOT due to social factors, it was due to the virus suddenly having a huge number of unexposed people to infect and spread rapidly.
Its why lockdown is not and was not recommended as all it does is make the problem worse every single time you do it.

Since warm weather is off until March at the earliest, and the Tory party is in a bout of mayhem, only the vaccine remains to halt the roller coaster. Apart from that, it's a long wait until Spring, Splatt, and that's why I'm taking the vaccine.

Why are you assuming a vaccine that even the people that make it clearly state has no data if it affects transmission or infection will change anything?!
Yet again you're stating something that none of the science, the advisors, the government of the manufacturers themselves are saying.

Even if we could vaccinated 1m people a week, sprint is 16 weeks. As each person needs 2 doses thats only 8 million people done so most people wont have it still.
But the virus will naturally drop off them as it did last year.

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fon
Posts: 1356
 fon
(@fon)
Joined: 12 months ago

It was also NOT due to social factors, it was due to the virus suddenly having a huge number of unexposed people to infect and spread rapidly.

I'm having a hard time buying that. Splatt.You see all those unexposed people would have caught the virus had it not been for the lockdown. It's a zero sum game, whatever R dropped on the slide, it could make up at the end (I buy that) but not more(that's the part I don't buy.)

Why are you assuming a vaccine that even the people that make it clearly state has no data if it affects transmission or infection will change anything? Yet again you're stating something that none of the science, the advisors, the government of the manufacturers themselves are saying.

Because there is nothing else Splatt, except to wait here fuming away while the govt. slowly kill us, and our children, because the are so damned dumb.

Even if we could vaccinated 1m people a week, sprint is 16 weeks.

We need more than that Splatt to do much good; min 300k a day, 2m per week. the govt. are just too dumb and stupid to do the math. This has to be a D-day sized operation, millions of vaccinators, ar it 24/7.

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Splatt
Posts: 1609
(@splatt)
Joined: 1 year ago

I'm having a hard time buying that. Splatt.You see all those unexposed people would have caught the virus had it not been for the lockdown. It's a zero sum game, whatever R dropped on the slide, it could make up at the end (I buy that) but not more(that's the part I don't buy.)

Maybe take it up with SAGE, SPI-M, Imperal College and Lancet then as they all independently modelled and predicted this which happened.

R was always found to spike *higher* after a lockdown. In other words it created cases that otherwise wouldnt have happened.

Because there is nothing else Splatt, except to wait here fuming away while the govt. slowly kill us, and our children, because the are so damned dumb.

Thats blind faith alone and doesn't change the basic fact we have no data to suggest it confers any reduction in transmission or infection. It makes sick people less sick. Thats all we know and all we lock for. Just like most other common vaccines.
Just because you want something to be true, doesnt mean it is.

We need more than that Splatt to do much good; min 300k a day, 2m per week. the govt. are just too dumb and stupid to do the math. This has to be a D-day sized operation, millions of vaccinators, ar it 24/7.

Not really, 97% of deaths are concentrated in the other 65 and clinically vulnerable.

Once those are done the risk to a normal person is comparable to flu and risk to health services being overwhelmed is nil. So at that point every single restriction should end and the vaccination rush can also end.

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