27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
the irony is some '...
 
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the irony is some 'sceptics' think vaccines are the solution

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jmc
Posts: 597
 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 1 year ago

So, 17 million vaccinated yet silence on the deaths and ill effects that have occurred from the vaccine. The report I read a couple of days ago, not from government of course but from Dr. Vernon Coleman, stated 107 deaths and 49,472 injuries so far from the Pfizer vaccine.

Dr Coleman is a longstanding anti vaxer and conspiracy theorist. Among other bonkers theories, he thinks that AIDS is a hoax.

His 107 figure is derived from a statistic of people who died from other causes soon after being vaccinated, as described here in the BMJ:

'The MHRA received 107 reports of death after the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, 34 after the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, and 2 in which the brand of vaccine was unspecified. Most reports were for older people or people with underlying illness, the MHRA said, and a review of individual reports and patterns of reporting did not indicate that the vaccine played a role in the death. “We know, for instance, based on data from [the Office for National Statistics], that for every 100 000 doses given to people aged 80 or over, around 200 people die of natural causes within a week,” Bryan said.'

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n363

I am not familiar with Dr Coleman but if he does not buy into the whole AIDS farrago then that is very much in his favor. FYI I remember well the "Great Dying" and the risk population dying of AIDS in 1988 are exactly the same risk population who were dying in 2018. The risk population never changed. A fraction of 1% of the population. So 99% plus of the population had a zero probability of every acquiring the disease. But people like Fauci made very lucrative careers out it.

As for adverse reaction deaths. Only the CDC VAERS database is required by law. All the EU/UK ones do not have the same statutory standing. VAERS is far from perfect but a model of accuracy and transparency compered with other jurisdictions.

If 200 old people die every week generally about 50% / 60% of those will already be hospitalized. So low probability of getting vaccinated. Of the rest if they die in the following three days after vaccination given that VAERS shows that half of all deaths so far (501) are over >65 the probability that any (+3 day) death for someone > 65 was from natural causes may be as low as 70%. That is if the probability of death on any give day for > 65 is 1/10000 and VAERS is showing an >65 death rate that might be as low as 1/15000. Its currently around 1/45000 range for the vaccinated group.

The "107 deaths and 49,472 injuries so far from the Pfizer vaccine"" looks like a straight extrapolation for the UK from the current US VAERS numbers. Unlikely to be exact but good enough to be ball-park. So +/- 30%. These SARs CoV 2 vaccines are not as safe as the annual flu vaccines. Far from it. Early data shows between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude more harmful. So that should be a key concern in the risk / benefits equation.

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annied
Posts: 1
(@annied)
Joined: 1 year ago

They will never stop demanding that we get more and more vaccine shots. Until we stand up like humans and stop acting like germs the government will continue to treat us inhumanely.

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fon
Posts: 1356
 fon
(@fon)
Joined: 12 months ago

Because I know how the game is played too.

Good man. The main thing on my mind today is that the ZOE symptom checker app is showing, over 40,000 health care workers, after 2 to 3 weeks a 50% benefit, after 3 weeks 68% relative risk reduction after one jab. So vaccine works, and no torrent of text can stand in the way of it. So I'll save you some typing, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is buying that version , not yours. It's just how it is, jmc, you are bumping up against the hard wall of reality. Save yourself half an hour of keyboard pounding and find better work to do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vReTwfEithg

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Fingal
Posts: 139
(@fingal)
Joined: 11 months ago

If 200 old people die every week generally about 50% / 60% of those will already be hospitalized. So low probability of getting vaccinated.
That's an unreasonable assumption. Inpatients are (mostly) being vaccinated:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/12/more-hospitals-set-to-deliver-covid-19-vaccine/
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-three-hospitals-criticised-for-not-vaccinating-vulnerable-inpatients-12196479
The "107 deaths and 49,472 injuries so far from the Pfizer vaccine"" looks like a straight extrapolation for the UK from the current US VAERS numbers. Unlikely to be exact but good enough to be ball-park.
He gives a precise total as if it were an accurate, generally accepted figure. But it isn't. It's not actually a total for vaccine deaths and it's not even from this country.

Dr Coleman has played fast and loose with statistics to reach a wholly unsafe conclusion. And that kind of fakery is exactly what his career so far is based on.

We have so many of these guys on the internet - why give them airtime?

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fon
Posts: 1356
 fon
(@fon)
Joined: 12 months ago

I can be persuaded otherwise if you keep up this type of performance.
Thank for your kind words. I'll try again to baby step you through the real values for Pfizer as follows, you can grasp it, but you must try.

22,000 vaccinated,8 got covid19, 8/22k=0.036% of group got covid19
22,000 placebo, 162 got covid19, 162/22k= 0.74% of group got covid19

0.036/0.74 = 5% Which means that the Pfizer vaccinated people had a 95% smaller risk of getting covid19 than those in the placebo group. That's the relative risk reduction. There it was not so bad eh? So now I'll baby step you through Novavax in the exact same way, I'll do it for jansen if you want.Just say the word!
data: https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3

7500,placebo, 56 cases, 56/7500=0.75% of group got covid19
7500, vax, 6 cases, 6/7500=0.08% of group got covid19
0.08/0.75 = 10.67%, which means that the Novavax
vaccinated people had a (100-10.67)~ 89.333% smaller risk of getting covid19.

So you're not so number blind as you thought jmc, you can do it for yourself once it is explain ed very slowly, it is easy and no need for any bluff and bluster.

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