In mitigation for sceptics, I add that lifting the 5 Nov lockdown allowed disease to resume from the same place; all things being equal, the only benefit was a 4 week delay. Whether the delay was used wisely is hard to say.

Sounds like 'kicking the can down the road.' Lift the lockdown disease resumes. Bring in another lockdown, and give the can another kick! Ad infinitum.

It didn’t work

It may have “flattened the curve” but it didn’t change the area under it.

Thanks for playing, the exit is down the hall on the left.

Define "worked".

In this context, worked means slowed infections. I know what you mean - is mere delay worth it?

SAGE and imperial modelling predicts a lockdown to delay any issues but create a spike in R and cases to higher than before 28 days after release.

I would say that is what occurred, judging by the data I have seen. R at least went back to what it had been.

Lancet analysed lockdown v1 data globally and found this exact trend.
Welsh data shows same, England is heading in an almost identical curve.

Yes. Given the dramatic, startling congruence of the app data with the dates of the 2nd lockdown, it is not remotely surprising that other similar measures in similar contexts had the same general effect.Harsh lockdown is clearly a strong control stimulus of some kind.
So "lockdown" only works if you stop looking shortly after its over.

No, keep looking, since the disease always resumes from where is was unless you do something or reach some place of safety, e.g. Spring. lockdown works to slow the rate of infections, buying time. if you do something with the time, lockdowns may be legitimate. If you do nothing with the bought time, then they look futile and harmful.

In our case, lockdown would be to buy time to immunise the old folks. I think that is the last remaining valid claim. I strongly agree with proposals by David Salisbury to use one jab to spread as much immunity as possible through the vulnerable population. Pulling out all the stops, vaccinating a million foggies a week while the lockdown lasts until it is politically impossible, or the warm weather comes hence using the bought time to profit. I broadly think perhaps that calculus that makes sense.
Long term it looks like models were correct and it just makes he situation worse next time every single time you do it.

The problem was not worse after lockdown ended. The trend has the exact same slope. The problem looks the same, shifted in time, when vaccine or Spring are nearer.
Using that logic you can say Germany won WW2 if you stop counting after 1940.

But we delayed the final solution, buying time for millions to be saved. My Dad (who was in the desert rats in the war) visited me in Munich in 1987. He was amazed at the affluence there compared to life in Wales, so yes, perhaps Germany won WW2 even if you keep counting after 1940.
But anyway WTF in the long run, we are all dead. John Maynard Keynes.

Bring in another lockdown, and give the can another kick! Ad infinitum.

We can either kick the can, or quit. No other game in town.

And the untold human and economic cost...was it worth it?I dont think so...