This is the PHE plot of rate of change in daily cases.
The first peak of the second wave is clearly the flat bit right in the centre, around the 8th Nov. the rate of change is zero at the peak. The ZOE symptom checker App corroborates this well (see second plot) with the peak on the 5th Nov (trust me), so it lags PHE by half a week, that's good to know. Notice the similarity between the high rates of change at the start (left) of the first plot and the end (right) of the plot.
Those are the steep slopes in the second ZOE app plots, showing again that PHE data and ZOE data are pretty much on the same trend,, although, of course, ZOE uses no PCR data, just real symptoms, so it does not exaggerate like PHE do. But the trends are identical
What does this mean? The PHE data shows the Christmas surge of cases has already turned, and is falling. There will be another peak in a few days showing in the ZOE app. I predicted that this morning, but I have been hunting for some corroboration since. Now I've found it. Basically, it seems we are through the worst part of the year, from a public health perspective. Now we can pile on the political pressure, once it ha turned, which is has!
The ZOE plot is the third one, please ignore the superfluous PHE copy, due to a bug in the blog software.
Can you explain a little more?
The 3rd plot shows the rate drop away to a minimum ~10th Dec then increase again.
The ZOE plot is the third one, please ignore the superfluous PHE copy, due to a bug in the blog software.
Can you explain a little more? The 3rd plot shows the rate drop away to a minimum ~10th Dec then increase again.
Yes on the ~ 10 Dec, the third plot (i.e ZOE data) shows the number of cases dropped to ~ 300k where it barely changed for two or three days.
NB: when the case count is not changing , the rate of change in cases is zero(i.e in a peak or trough) it does not mean there are no cases.
Then on 13th Dec, cases increased again and the plot trend changed direction suddenly and instead of seeing fewer infections each day, we got more and more and the direction shot up.
NB It is well worth noting that this shows the awesome power of the corona-virus to turn on us, and well demonstrates why politicians shit themselves, it can turn from going down in a flash and suddenly go up exponentially; they hate it since it does not resemble normal things in their lives, it blows their tiny minds to bits.
And in the PHE plots aboe(first two are identical), the zero rate you mention is briefly represented when the under the line bulge crosses over zero into above the line bulge on ~6th Dec in that plot. This is expected because the ZOE app lags the PHE data by ~ 4 days or so.
It's instantaneous since it was so brief, the trend goes from fewer cases to more in a flash.
NB:The ZOE plot is the third plot, ignoring the superfluous PHE plot, a bug in the blog software put in two copies.
OK well something did happen with these rates of change. The first peak and trough of the second wave is shown here
The rates of change of the peak and subsequent trough are shown below.
I'm mesmerised by this because the rates of change now at the far right of the plot strongly resemble a perfect repeat showing of the rates of change after the 11th October. After 11th Oct, there was a brief surge in case numbers (as can be seen starting now) followed by a period of no change in daily case number, then by a plunge in case numbers down to the first trough of the second wave. I don't know if any of this is meaningful, but if it is I'd expect case numbers to be plunging again by mid January. It's going to be interesting to see this, it's already happening in Wales.Since now we may soon(ish) be getting longer days, warmer weather instead of steadily shorter days, colder weather.Perhaps there is reason to be cheerful? But it is too soon. There may be another few twists and turns in this yet.
