This is what I was taught in 1st term immunology in 1981 & it was old news then.

I’m claiming nothing more than surviving simple virus infections leave you immune. You may be technically reinfected but mount faster stronger immune responses & don’t get ill.

https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1325018428873302016

Four Important Points

Graham Hutchinson, ex-Senior Chief Biomedical Scientist, Public Health UK

Watch the video
https://youtu.be/OcVC4kgoJic

In last week’s Spectator, Fraser Nelson went into the SAGE’s “Reasonable Worst Case” scenario. The whole document is replete with immunological impossibilities, it’s plain wrong. I’m left with no other alternative but to interpret this document as having been drawn up with the express intention to mislead the Government into taking actions it otherwise would not take.
Yardley Yeadon

Assuming this advert from an estate agent is correct, the housing market remains open during Lockdown #2.

”We are open and here to help in the safest possible way.
In line with latest Government’s guidelines on home moving, the housing market will remain open during the national lockdown which started yesterday, the 5th November 2020, and all our offices in England will continue to operate.

Exceptions on leaving home include undertaking any of the following activities in connection with the purchase, sale, letting or rental of a residential property:

•Visiting estate or letting agents, developer sales offices or show homes
•Viewing residential properties to look for a property to buy or to rent
•Preparing a residential property to move in
•Moving house
•Visiting a residential property to undertake any activities required for the rental or sale of that property”.

This seems to me a surprising activity to keep open, given Lockdown #2 is proposed initially to last 1 month. It’s almost as if, without telling us, that SAGE has already decided it’s going to be very much longer.

There’s a problem with this possibility, which depends upon the reasonable worst-case (RWC) scenario which is, without question, literally impossible.

A condensed reason why I assert this with 100% confidence includes observations that equilibrium has long ago been reached in the country in terms of the daily deaths vs time curve. I have no doubt bored people to tears about how instantly meaningful the shape & timings of the various components of that curve are.

The turning of the initially very rapidly accelerating epidemic in our country into a much more slowly-advancing infectious episode & thence into the monotonic, long drawn-out ‘tail’ is without question a direct reflection of a speedy reduction of the % remaining susceptible population.

In turn this phenomenon, sometimes called (emerging) “community immunity’, arises from a simple & well-characterised interaction of the human immune system & an unremarkable virus which is neither rapidly mutating nor immunotoxic.

Specifically, a proportion of the population has prior immunity. You’d have expected this because, while SARS-CoV-2 is nominally new, there’s no such thing as an ‘ancestor-less’ virus & it is related to four other, endemic coronaviruses. Those who’ve been infected by one of these common cold-causing CoVs in the past have immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 as well.

I absolutely recognise that we cannot be sure the extent of this prior immunity but we can be sure that it’s functionally effective because of the fact that in almost no outbreak in U.K. did we find that everyone in a group became infected.

There is an ever-growing body of research literature showing not only T-cells which recognise the new virus but also some absolutely fascinating data on antibodies as well, which have been detected using high sensitivity testing systems.

On top of prior immunity, those infected who survived (which is in excess of 99.9%) then are immune. That’s the way our immune systems work & I’m afraid SAGE cannot argue it doesn’t.

Once a community has experienced what I call a “full pass” through the population, it is literally impossible for that same population to support & enable a substantially sized, consolidated & national infectious episode again, certainly not until big slices of protective immunity decays (which is more likely to be years than anything else).

I’ve said before & I’ll say again, it seems eminently plausible that certain regional populations might not have been as intensively infected in spring as other places. It’s possible this is a contributor to the tragic events & deaths in the northwest. But as before, and exactly as all prior theoretical expectations coupled with observations show, the infectious outbreak is self-limiting.

It’s important to know that viruses don’t do waves. I exclude from that term some kind of seasonal oscillation (I termed that a “secondaryripple”) which is always far less severe in terms of illness & deaths than the initial event, because now there are far fewer people susceptible to infection by the virus & remember that a very small proportion (0.3.% or less) are expected to die.

I noticed today that, in last week’s Spectator, Fraser Nelson went into the SAGE’s “Reasonable Worst Case” scenario. The whole document is replete with immunological impossibilities. I don’t know how else to communicate this, but it’s not a “reasonable worst-case” anything. It’s plain wrong.

This document was not published (I can imagine why that was: people like me & anyone with even basic knowledge & understanding of the human immune system would point at half a dozen pivotal remarks, numbers, conditions, assumptions let alone the predictions & be willing to give evidence under oath in front of a court & say “M’lud, these projections or scenarios are literally impossible.

I’ve no idea why such a document could possibly be drawn up by SAGE, given a number of them, knowing just the same as I do about human immunity, also know that what’s written in the document is strictly impossible.

The easiest example of this is the “second wave” component in itself. SAGE predicts it will kill a substantial multiple of the number of people who died with or of the virus in spring, when the population was at maximum susceptibility.

The next example is the duration of the episode in SAGE’s RWC scenario. According to their “model”, and in contrast to the spring, where the vast majority of the deaths occurred over a two month period, now we’re expected to accept that a high level of daily deaths will grind along for very much longer.

As I’ve argued earlier & elsewhere, not only can the RWC not occur at all, but if we suspend the ‘laws of immunology’ long enough to permit a second & substantial outbreak of illness, it’s shape is absolutely characteristic of the interaction of the virus & its human host.

It’s literally impossible both for the virus to be highly infectious yet take longer to move through the population. So I’m left with no other alternative but to interpret this document as having been drawn up with the express intention to mislead the Government into taking actions it otherwise would not take.

Why that is of interest to anyone, in other words, their motivations, I have no idea. I’m a scientist, not a mind reader or detective.

I’m laying this out in detail because I’m completely certain that Lockdown #2 is wholly unnecessary & very damaging. I’ve personally been in discourse with just under 20 MPs, making that point. I know that very many voted for Lockdown #2 with very heavy hearts.

I am hoping against hope that in my follower group, there is at least one constituent for every MP in the House of Commons. I urge any such person to immediately send this thread to your MP, including a note that you’re sending this as a deeply concerned constituent.

I invite you to find words to urge them to read it & then check me out, asking what possible motivation can Dr Yeadon have, other than to be telling the truth as his 30 years post doctoral respiratory research knowledge & judgement provides, with the intention of helping us lift this completely superfluous Lockdown #2.

Instead of actively making this situation much worse, MPs are the only people in the country who can rescue us all.

It won’t make any difference how many tweets, discussion documents, podcasts etc that I create, unless a large group of Parliamentarians lobby the cabinet & Prime Minister to debate this matter properly this time, and only then decide what they’re going to do.

I want to reassure all of you who help out in this way, by communicating with your MP, that I am but one of a handful of experts in different fields, all related to this matter. They are all each in touch with a set of MPs.

So please consider that, though each effort on your part seems impossible to succeed, the weight of evidence is in totality very strong.

I’ll add Mr Nelson’s article triggering this.

Please read it & my thread again, then I implore you to take action.

Include name, address & contact details when you write to your MP. THANK YOU.

The long winter – why Covid restrictions could last until April | The Spectator
Not much makes sense during a pandemic but in recent weeks the Covid puzzle has become a deeper mystery. When local lockdowns failed, the solution was to try even more of them.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-long-winter-why-covid-restrictions-could-last-until-april

Yardley Yeadon
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325348453350780928.html

So let me get this straight

“So let me get this straight. All the projections were wrong because all the assumptions were wrong, but we still can’t go outside, because the people who were wrong said so. Is that about right?”

Yardley Yeadon
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1326705287584247810

Yet another sign that the pandemic is over

I’m afraid that nothing is discussed properly because broadcasting guidelines introduced on Lockdown day have continued & are repressive. It’s impossible to get something like this even presented by the BBC, let alone discussed. Lord knows we’ve tried.

In case anyone thinks this is over the top, recall last week the stories about falling antibody prevalence & concerns about duration of immunity?

People like me tried to correct this misinterpretation. What the falls mean isn’t to do with immunity. Instead it’s great news: the best interpretation, I think the correct one, is that it means that the prevalence of the virus has fallen away.

It’s frequent re-stimulation with virus that would keep antibodies up in a population. The body winds down expensive antibody production once the virus disappears and so the antibody prevalence falls, which have been continuously falling since spring, and is yet another sign that the pandemic is over.

I tried but no broadcaster is interested in this interpretation despite being normal immunology. Why not, I’ve no idea.

Yardley Yeadon
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1326647901737676802