I am not one to doubt the existence of Covid, but I do have a serious question about how Government knows there is so much of the reported "new strain" about. The knowledge is based, we are told, on virus sequence-testing of random positive-test samples from around the country. Key questions;
How much of this virus sequence-testing has been done? On how many positive-test samples, over how long, where?
Without this information, we cannot ascertain whether there is statistical reliability here. Is the dataset big enough to be representative, for sure, and, is this data evenly spread across (volume-wise) between different cities and counties so that they can be relied upon as a basis for differentiated policies across various regions?
So where is the data in this?
There has been so much Government deceit with respect to Covid data that we really need to hold Government's feet to the fire now. We need the actual numbers, not just Government extrapolations and graphs. All the data needs to be published, raw, so independent people can analyse it and present their own conclusions.
I would not be surprised if this turns out to be another big data/analysis cock-up.
Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Europe-focused subsampling is an interesting visualisation. It can show about 3,000-4,000 genotypes.and play timelines as the initial virus evolves. See the comments in the pane below Although the genetic relationships among sampled viruses are quite clear, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of specific transmission dates and in reconstruction of geographic spread. Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.
See Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Europe-focused subsampling. In teresting visualisation of ~3700 genomes with dynamic visualisation of timeline.
Note " Although the genetic relationships among sampled viruses are quite clear, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of specific transmission dates and in reconstruction of geographic spread. Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis".
I have seen nothing to support the suggestion that this one new strain could be more transmissible. Another wonderful effort by Behavioural Insights Team and SPI-B Psy-ops to ramp up fear yet again
How much of this virus sequence-testing has been done? On how many positive-test samples, over how long, where?
As per Vallance who was asked this in the conference, the UK sequences 5-10% of all positive tests.
This is one of the highest in the world (Denmark is up there too). It's perfectly possible it originated elsewhere but we noticed it first for that reason.
So where is the data in this?
NextStrain, GISAID to name 2.
NervTag also released their minutes:-
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/
As did CogConsortium:-
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563/1
The best data summary so far is the ECDC:-
There's a lot of actual solid data above and NervTag is releasing more in the week as it becomes final.
