27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
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Racaniello disagrees with NERVTAG on new variant

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Splatt
Posts: 1609
(@splatt)
Joined: 1 year ago

The 70% figure did not come from Ferguson at all.

PHE technical document:-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf

They just released actual data so now people can actually go through it and inspect.

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MikeAustin
Posts: 1193
(@mikeaustin)
Joined: 1 year ago

The 70% figure did not come from Ferguson at all.

PHE technical document:-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf

They just released actual data so now people can actually go through it and inspect.

Thanks for this. I cannot say that I follow it, but I would like to understand what is meant by this statement:
We correct these weekly growth factors by raising them to the power of 6.57 to ensure they can be interpreted as reproduction numbers (given the mean generation time of SARS-CoV-2).

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benj
Posts: 78
 benj
Topic starter
(@wade)
Joined: 1 year ago

Yes.
And he's just guessing at this point because quite literally there has been no data published at all to allow anyone to make any sort of conclusion either way.

Can't make any sort of conclusion on 4 lines in a summary document with 0 supporting data at all.

OK.

Shame that the powers that be couldn't have the same approach or get a second opinion.

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Splatt
Posts: 1609
(@splatt)
Joined: 1 year ago

Shame that the powers that be couldn't have the same approach or get a second opinion.

Well if you actually read the Nervtag document you'll see there were many opinions, papers and discussion.
They're not the government or "powers that be".

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benj
Posts: 78
 benj
Topic starter
(@wade)
Joined: 1 year ago

Shame that the powers that be couldn't have the same approach or get a second opinion.

Well if you actually read the Nervtag document you'll see there were many opinions, papers and discussion.
They're not the government or "powers that be".

yes, thanks, just saw the link and will give it a read;

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