I compare ONS weekly deaths with 10 previous years - 2010-2019. I now factor previous years to a 2020 equivalent using ONS population data. For 2020 population data that is not yet available, I have linearly extrapolated from 2015.

I have chosen to compare this year's deaths with the maximum from previous years. Where suitable, I include salient figures and comments as 'live' text boxes on the charts. Of note is my determination of 15 June as the end of the pandemic.

The first chart is expressed as daily deaths over the whole year. All-cause deaths in the last week are up 2.1%. For the total year, which includes the pandemic, all-cause deaths are up 3.95%. Since the end of the pandemic, deaths are down 0.27%. Recent higher death tolls do not exceed lower death tolls in the summer.

The second chart is expressed as weekly deaths since shortly before the pandemic end. Deaths 'with covid' are not necessarily due to covid. NHS data provides causes of death, from which 'deaths with covid' due to covid alone amount to 4.1%. This is 1% of all-cause deaths. Therefore, actual deaths due to covid are between 1% and 22.9% of total deaths. These are coloured with a gradient on the chart.

The numbers along the top of the chart referred to a very narrow dark red band are the 1% that are definitely due to covid. I have to point this out because it is hardly distinguishable! ONS include all deaths where covid is mentioned on the death certificate as a 'covid death'. There are actually two classifications on the death certificate: one where the main cause of death can be distinguished which is usually accompanied by symptoms, and the other where it is merely present by any determination. ONS merge these two classifications as one in their data. This is very unhelpful for an effective monitoring of covid's effect on mortality.

Note that covid has 'eaten into' the number deaths due to respiratory conditions and other conditions. These should not remain flat since the end of summer but should follow the trend of previous years. There is some glaringly obvious misattribution - or even manipulation - going on here.

The tentative approximation of false positives is based on the difference between ONS estimated prevalence and cases/PCR tests - typically a ratio of about 9:1.

As it took a while to extract and sort the population and deaths data, I have uploaded them to Google Drive if anyone wishes to use them:
UKpopulation.xlsx (8Mb)
UKmortality.xlsx (0.4Mb)

Of particular interest in this data is the increase in population of 80+. According to my calculations, this year the average death with covid is 80.4. Looking at the year upon year increase in population of 80+, there is a clear jump in 2019 of over 20,000. It is quite possible - even probable - that this 20,000 were already vulnerable and what is unfortunately termed 'dry tinder'. This could explain a very large proportion of the pandemic deaths even the currently over-stated number.