New Super Covid

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anon1948

Dec 22, 2020 1:11 am

(@anon1948)

Joined: 1 year ago

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SARS-CoV-2-variant-multiple-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf
Thanks for posting this link.

My initial reaction is that, as this is being seen in the under 60s, this increased transmissibility means that more people who don't get sick will get it and so the case numbers, as represented by positive test results, will go up. I quote from page 6:
Potential impact on severity of disease in a population or group

The available information regarding severity of the new virus variant is limited. To date, there is no indication of increased infection severity observed related to the variant, but the assessment is challenged by the fact that the majority of cases were reported in people under 60 years old, who are less likely to develop severe symptoms

Bearing in mind that age alone is not sufficient for an infection progressing to illness. One's immune system seems to be the main factor in batting off an infection, or succumbing to it, and that is not necessarily age related.

And as the case numbers go up, so will the numbers of deaths within 28 days of a positive test for the 'new virulent strain'. Even if the strain is actually less deadly than the original, the data will make it appear more serious. And so we go on...

There's no hope that vaccines or 'the science' will get us out of this now. The only thing that can work is political pressure.

Posts: 9

llevox

Dec 22, 2020 2:56 am

(@llevox)

Joined: 12 months ago

There's no mortality increase suggested but what they don't mention it is contains a specific point deletion in the sequence that when it arose previously (Singapore) was likely attenuating the disease - less severe.
That lineage died out after SG locked down but the same deletion has arisen again.

So no data but it could even mean more infectious/less lethal but sample size is so small we can't possibly know yet.

( Young, Barnaby E. et al. 2020. “Effects of a Major Deletion in the SARS-CoV-2 Genome on the Severity of Infection and the Inflammatory Response: An Observational Cohort Study.” 2020. The Lancet 396 (10251): 603–11. )

How the variant has spread across the UK. From there its clear that if you're trying to contain it, you're already way way too late.

Also one of the modellers that calculated this 0.9R / 70% increase is some guy called "Neil Ferguson". His name is on the cover of the nervtag minutes.

In that case it's showing normal, expected behaviour for a virus: higher transmissibility, lower virulence (i.e. damage potency).

Posts: 1609

Splatt

Dec 22, 2020 11:39 am

(@splatt)

Joined: 1 year ago

Thirdly, as the PCR tests pick up dead virus fragments, the majority of so called 'cases' may be those who have dealt with the infection and may have become immune.

Except to quality for a pillar 2 test you require symptoms to book a test.
The chances of someone with covid symptoms having symptoms are far higher than someone without covid symptoms having it.
Someone shedding fragments post-infection is unlikely to have symptoms and therefore unlikely to have qualified for and booked a test.

Yes mass testing of asymptomatic testing is a bad idea but the main testing pillar we use requires symptoms to get a test for exactly those reasons.

A few other points, daily testing figures are published as is the test positivity rate. The positivity rate is growing faster than the increase in testing.

Posts: 1609

Splatt

Dec 22, 2020 11:42 am

(@splatt)

Joined: 1 year ago

In that case it's showing normal, expected behaviour for a virus: higher transmissibility, lower virulence (i.e. damage potency).

We have nothing to suggest lower virulence in current data.
4 deaths in 975 samples is in the same range of the other 1600+ variants we have in the UK.

(More worryingly was 4 probable reinfections. That does suggest antigenic drift has reduced immune response but again, small data set)