My initial reaction is that, as this is being seen in the under 60s, this increased transmissibility means that more people who don't get sick will get it and so the case numbers, as represented by positive test results, will go up. I quote from page 6:
Maybe not. Generally older people are sheltering more than the younger (and by nature work less, party less etc).
I know. Don't rub it in!
Also one of the modellers that calculated this 0.9R / 70% increase is some guy called "Neil Ferguson". His name is on the cover of the nervtag minutes.
Ah. I trust he's not holding a grudge for being outed in the original lockdown.
Can anyone postulate on the reason that deaths are going down as the numbers infected by COVID are going up? Is it possible that this new strain could be more infectious but less deadly? Does anyone have any ideas?
Can anyone postulate on the reason that deaths are going down as the numbers infected by COVID are going up? Is it possible that this new strain could be more infectious but less deadly? Does anyone have any ideas?
Its possible (see discussion on the other page) but also remember the median 21 day lag between a case and death so *IF* deaths are going to rise they wont really start doing so until into January. The deaths we're seeing now will be the ones from the beginning of December which was lockdown and decreasing cases.
I've not seen an age breakdown for the new high incidence areas either - that might also have an effect.
Can anyone postulate on the reason that deaths are going down as the numbers infected by COVID are going up? Is it possible that this new strain could be more infectious but less deadly? Does anyone have any ideas?
Firstly, 'covid deaths' lag 'covid cases' by about 21 days.
Secondly, PCR returns many false positives. If we assume that the rate of false positives are about the same for the living as for the dead then, as there are increasingly more daily tests than deaths, the 'cases' living will exceed the 'cases' dead.
Thirdly, as the PCR tests pick up dead virus fragments, the majority of so called 'cases' may be those who have dealt with the infection and may have become immune.
