...and likely the most informative yet is the ECDC bulletin that has a lot of data clearly briefed BY the UK government that they didnt bother releasing to its own public:-
Lots of good factual information there with no spin.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SARS-CoV-2-variant-multiple-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf
Thanks for posting this link.
My initial reaction is that, as this is being seen in the under 60s, this increased transmissibility means that more people who don't get sick will get it and so the case numbers, as represented by positive test results, will go up. I quote from page 6:
Potential impact on severity of disease in a population or group
The available information regarding severity of the new virus variant is limited. To date, there is no indication of increased infection severity observed related to the variant, but the assessment is challenged by the fact that the majority of cases were reported in people under 60 years old, who are less likely to develop severe symptoms
Bearing in mind that age alone is not sufficient for an infection progressing to illness. One's immune system seems to be the main factor in batting off an infection, or succumbing to it, and that is not necessarily age related.
...and likely the most informative yet is the ECDC bulletin that has a lot of data clearly briefed BY the UK government that they didnt bother releasing to its own public:-
Lots of good factual information there with no spin.
As I read the ECDC document its just the normal course of events with a highly mutagenic novel virus. One variant works its way through the population and as it does news variant arises and the mix of old / new changes in new infection population. No real change in the IFR or CFR mortality rates so no change in the actual health risk. Over time new variants tend to be less virulent and less dangerous, not more. That's how epidemics work. Five or ten years down the line, thats a different matter.
The only big problem with the new variant is that it potentially seriously disrupts the governments placebo policies narrative of test everything although the tests are meaningless and roll out a vaccine even though corona-virus vaccines have a history of high failure rates.
So the only problem I see here is political. It throws a spanner in the works for the governments current shambolic public health policies with regards to SARs CoV 2. No increase in mortality risk to the general population. Which was low to start with.
My initial reaction is that, as this is being seen in the under 60s, this increased transmissibility means that more people who don't get sick will get it and so the case numbers, as represented by positive test results, will go up. I quote from page 6:
Maybe not. Generally older people are sheltering more than the younger (and by nature work less, party less etc).
So generally young people are always the initial driver of any disease. It normally creeps from there with a lag time of a few weeks.
I dont think you can say anything else from the very sparse data provided.
Remember the UK only sequences 5-10% of genomes tested and thats 10-20x higher than some other countries so we dont really know the spread and certainly not outside the country.
We are maybe just far more efficient at detecting new variants because we have far more robust surveillance in that respect.
There's no mortality increase suggested but what they don't mention it is contains a specific point deletion in the sequence that when it arose previously (Singapore) was likely attenuating the disease - less severe.
That lineage died out after SG locked down but the same deletion has arisen again.
So no data but it could even mean more infectious/less lethal but sample size is so small we can't possibly know yet.
( Young, Barnaby E. et al. 2020. “Effects of a Major Deletion in the SARS-CoV-2 Genome on the Severity of Infection and the Inflammatory Response: An Observational Cohort Study.” 2020. The Lancet 396 (10251): 603–11. )
Related note, THIS is useful:-
https://beta.microreact.org/project/b1FRyhxAqTatsvNysxDU35-cog-uk-2020-12-19-sars-cov-2-in-the-uk
How the variant has spread across the UK. From there its clear that if you're trying to contain it, you're already way way too late.
Also one of the modellers that calculated this 0.9R / 70% increase is some guy called "Neil Ferguson". His name is on the cover of the nervtag minutes.
