Nail, head, hit.

I somewhat cautiously predicted this a few days ago. It was obvious the "new variant" would be the perfect deus ex machina to justify not even continued, but harsher restrictions despite there being no indication it's in any way more serious.

And it only seems to exist in the UK so far.

First sequenced in September, spreading more recently.

Vallance doing dishonest thing of saying because its spreading faster than other variants and replacing them its not infectious.
That is scientifically, nonsense. It doesnt mean that at all for many reasons.
Many variants have done that with COVID as a natural progression and NONE have been found to be so.

https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563/1 is a good document on *possible* problems but as of yet there is no evidence any of them are actual problems. None.

It DOES have potential to affect the vaccines because they target exactly this spike protein. But again, potential only. no evidence yet either way.

NervTag just released their summary:-
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452
Four analytic approaches were reviewed regarding the transmissibility of VUI-202012/01
o Growth rate from genomic data: which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01 that
that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.
o Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which
suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
o PCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with
the new variant.
o Viral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5
increase in median log10 inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.

It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low
prevalence without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and
subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high prevalence
suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants.

In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates
a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.

NervTAG just released their summary:-

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452
Disease severity: 4 deaths in around 1000 cases have been identified but further
work is needed to compare this fatality rate with comparable data sets.
o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of
the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct
from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915
subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets.

Growth rate from genomic data: which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01 that
that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.
o Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which
suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
o PCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with
the new variant.
o Viral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5
increase in median log10 inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.

It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low
prevalence without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and
subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high prevalence
suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants.

In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates
a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.

Can see why they're worried if the data pans out. 4-5x increase of viral load suggested.

If that data pans out it does mean potential vaccines could be far less effective.
Its a change most people expected to happen once large scale vaccination rolled out putting it under selective pressure to mutate but it seems to have come sooner.
I suspect THATS their main fear here.

4 probably reinfections (although a low data set). Deaths unchanged. A similar deletion in samples in Singapore did result in a less severe disease.

This is the summary NOT actual data but if it pans out, that's why people are sh*tting themselves about it.