I have written the Sceptic's Creed (see thread) to show that our firm conviction (that the Gompertz function governs the course of this coronavirus) is, when all is said and done, based only on our belief in a theory not established scientific fact. We believe in the Gompertz function and Herd immunity because no other theory explains the phenomenon so economically, hence we are using Occam's Razor, not hard cold logic. We believe the Gompertz /herd immunity theory because we prefer it to the Establishment's explanation which follows:
The Establishment's case
The Establishment comprises SAGE and the government and a large part of MSM.
The Establishment maintains that this coronavirus is a novel pathogen, hence 90% of people not thus far infected are still susceptible to being infected. If true, at an IFR of 0.26%, 160,000 britons are at risk of imminent death once infected. That, in a nutshell, is the Establishment's case. Hence lockdown is absolutely necessary until a vaccine takes hold to provide artificial herd immunity.
The sceptic's case
As summarised in the Sceptic's creed, our case is that the population already has an innate level of immunity, coupled with those already exposed, the population is close to or already has reached Herd immunity, as evidence we present the close fit of the data to the Gompertz function which would only occur if the population is largely immune by now.
Since we can show conclusively that the data does indeed fit the natural Gompertz function, the most economical explanation for this phenomenon is that we are roughly at the Herd immunity threshold and hence the epidemic phase is over, and the virus is constrained to relatively harmless endemic circulation.The circumstances do not warrant lockdown, given the multitude of harms that lockdown inflict.
j'accuse
The Establishment refuse to even consider the sceptic's case. We regard this as gross negligence on a scale comparable to of Nazi Germany's war time atrocities.






