I try and follow the stats to recognise patterns. I am no statistician but it is clear to me that there has been a steady fall in the number of people on ventilators, as a % of hospital admissions from 1/9/20 at around 12% to 7.5% now.
Also the number of deaths as a % of hospital admissions is also falling from a 4% peak on 25/11/20 to 1% on 22/12/20
I appreciate there are many variables but the ventilator drop has been steady and continuous and although the deaths % drop is shorter, it is significant. My question is - Is the virus becoming weaker?
All data I use is from the .Gov Website for England
steady fall in the number of people on ventilators, as a % of hospital admissions from 1/9/20 at around 12% to 7.5% now.
That perhaps occurred because medics noticed something they had not expected. In circumstances where they have a group of equally ill people all "needing" ventilator beds, there were too few ventilator beds for every person. In these situations, medics triaged the patients, some got beds some did not. Medics observed that the ones who did not get ventilator beds survived more frequently than ones who got ventilator beds; it seemed that ventilation is not benign so they stopped using it.
It is NOT a sign that covid is weaker. That would be fake news.
the number of deaths as a % of hospital admissions is also falling from a 4% peak on 25/11/20 to 1% on 22/12/20
This effect is quite obvious in the symptom tracker, which is highly accurate.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time
Explanation of 4% deaths to admissions peak on 25/11/20 : There were fewer admissions in late nov, early december (fewer admissions, but still high death count, since deaths match higher admissions peak around 5 nov, due to lag, it takes time to die in hospital)
Explanation of 1% deaths to admission dip on 22/12/20 : The lowest number of new cases/admissions in the most recent dip occurred on 12th December, having been declining sharply since late november (by 22 dec more admissions, but low death count,since deaths match lower admissions trough around 12 Dec, due to lag, it takes time to die in hospital). Hence on 22nd dec, low deaths, high admissions, as you see. Gives the false idea that virus is weaker.
NOTEThe situation will soon reverse, as deaths catch up with 22nd Dec admissions. This is the exact reason the government panicked pre-Christmas. They know deaths will catch up, sure as eggs. Since there is no sign virus is getting weaker but treatment is getting better.
This is not a sign of weaker virus. That would be spreading fake news.
btw: this property where an effect(low deaths to admissions) lags the cause (low admissions a week earlier)is known as hysteresis.
try recalculating you ratios but comparing deaths to admission 1o days earlier. it should not appear that the virus is weaker if you do that.
We have far more knowledge and far better ways of treating it not than initially.
(For example to start with we decided to ventilate everybody then realise that was actually killing people.
Dexamethasone makes a huge difference
Dexamethasone makes a huge difference
Setting people to lie in a prone position has saved many.
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.202004-1331LE
