For a start there are not 0 case but 4 at the moment. Over 400 hundred total.
https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/latest-updates/
Plus the testing was totally symptom driven, not indiscriminate mass screening. Where the big problems mostly is.
Because although false positives CAN be a problem there's a huge amount of hysteria by people with no understanding at all about the tests.
Or how about some people just dont know the mathematics or epidemiology of transmission networks for very small geographically isolated populations. Got nothing to do with dodgy mass screening testing.
So a population of 80K on an isolated island at the end of UK potential transmission routes which shutdown all external travel at the end of March 2020 has low case count. Around 400. Surprise, surprise. So at most 50 to 80 max potential infections when the island was isolated. Which fits it with the numbers seen since. That looks like a R0 1.5 < curve to me. As the CFR for SARs CoV 2 in the IOM is over 5% at least half of those are probably false positives. Or just WITH cases. So a toss up.
In 5 / 10 years time the seroprevalence for SARs CoV 2 infections and the current prevalence for IOM will be pretty much the same as the rest of the UK 35%+, < 1%. Because that's how the epidemiology, and mathematics, of human corona-virus infections work. And have worked for many generations.
Unless they plan to seal the IOM for ever, that is.
Unless they plan to seal the IOM for ever, that is.
There have been a string of people stating they want exactly that today...
Add Australia, NZ to that list.
Changing the subject slightly I wonder if zero-covid island populations might act a loose comparitor group for vaccine safety in the elderly care home populations?
Also, there has been VERY low levels of infection in the Isle of Mann. They locked down hard and had enforced hotel isolation for arrivals. They had no reported cases for months, then had a new lockdown for 3 weeks after a few cases arose recently.
So low historical infection levels, means little opportunity for residual viral fragments to be a factor in testing.
