I don't think anyone can predict the course of seasonal ARIs including Covid for the rest of the winter.

I littered my post with weasel words to that effect, I am trying to predict the second peak of the second wave, whichh looks imminent here, using independent datasources: https://forums.lockdownsceptics.org/viewtopic.php?p=7717
But who knows?
The problem isn't really Covid but the inability of our health and social care services to cope with a large vulnerable population susceptible to ARIs during the winter months.

Perhaps, but Covid19 is playing havoc everywhere, so I won't point a finger at the NHS although I would point at Matt Hancock and Boris for being unable to interpret data, and also SAGE for using and communicating corrupt data and corrupting its message. They are the culprits as much as the virus.

My toys are heading for the ground. 😉
A compromise isn't enough, we need a u-turn. The damage being done is phenomenal, it just hasn't hit us yet. It's like falling off a skyscraper, painless until you reach the ground. We're likely to hit the ground in 2021 and trust me when that happens no one will give a stuff about vaccines and 100K excess deaths p.a. from COVID.
If it were a negotiation like Brexit, what is the minimum lockdown sceptics would accept to adraw line under heavy lockdowns.Obviously, we would all want to quit with the lockdowns and move on with our lives, being sensible obviously, Sceptics are by and large sensible people with a social conscience.That would be an ideal endpoint, but it's not going to happen soon.

But to get there, we may need to accept a bit less, moving in the right direction, so I'm thinking about hybrid Barrington. The target of hybrid Barrington would be to tolerate current intervention, (since we have no choice) which comprise heavy lockdown and vaccine (again, it's inevitable) our expectation is that before Spring these measures will change the status quo in our favour.

The status quo, with current interventions, indicates perhaps 500,000 ongoing active cases through winter with (at IFR 0.3%) about 700 deaths per week , a hundred a day. I think some sceptics and all non-sceptics would not consider 100 deaths a week as OK, even though we give special dispensation to the flu, for historical reasons. The public expects us to do something about Covid-19, and do not regard it as the flu. That's how it is, I'm afraid.

So the idea is a hybrid Barrington ; could we accept or even support the voluntary vaccination of those who most need it, could we accept or even support milder forms of social distancing somewhat short of lockdown, even masks. No kissing and cuddling in public; I'm fed up with that sort of thing anyway.

I can already hear all the toys being hurled from your prams, but think about it first, is there a hybrid Barrington, short of lockdown that delays the virus spread, we need to do something to get deaths down to under 100 a week. Once it's done, we're out of this mess.

sorry just saw this:

'How it is' is an obfuscation of data regarding so-called 'cases' and so-called 'covid deaths'. Misrepresentation of statistics by the government neglect to consider false positives and non-infectious virus fragments in the 'case' count and the 'death' count. They misattribute deaths to covid when 96% of them have an average of 1.75 pre-existing conditions. The ONS conflate deaths with covid as the main cause with those having covid as an incidental positive PCR test.
Essentially, unless we can incontrovertibly show that deaths due to covid are less than excess deaths due to other causes (i.e. probably anti-covid measures) - and this is aired and debated - there is nowhere we can go. Every day, more deaths are being caused.

I'm working hard not to obfuscate. The figures are not tainted by government Pillar data nor by PCR false +ves. I would not use that data except to suggest trends, direction of travel since direction trends are, to some extent, immune from false +ve readouts. It's easy to see why. If test numbers are steady, then false +ves are fixed proportionately, and hence do not change up or down as the real cases fluctuate. That is why I regard false +ve noise as less relevant when considering wther trends are changing, curving up or down, it is harmful in a differnt way.
I do trust the ZOE app for magnitudes, and trends, although they lag P/HE data by a half week, so for trends I use both datas. I hope this is helpful, there is/are in the order of half a million real cases at present. and low number of hundreds dying per day of it as a consequence of that. It is not helpful to imagine that all cases are fake or that fewer deaths occur. It's real - it is what it is, a small fraction of what SAGE say. You are right to mention comorbidities. And Collateral damage.

That's right. As long as those that want it get it and those that don't are left alone no hassle no coercion no isolation from society all will be well..simple..why do I need good luck?
❓

The Government are in a hole and still digging. Seemingly relying on the vaccine as their ladder to climb out of the hole. I am sure they know that as soon as restrictions are lifted they will inevitably be called to account. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Whitty, Vallence, Fergusson and Hancock for sure. Boris will of course deny any culpability, " Three times before the cock crows." I can't see any mood from Government to accept even a hybrid Barrington.