The first chart presents the number of deaths by age since the start of October to the week before Christmas for 2020 and 2019. Overall during this time period there were about 11,500 additional deaths in 2020. With most in people aged 75-84.
The second chart reports the number of excess deaths by age and also the number of deaths where COVID got a mention on the certificate. In total there were 22,500 ‘COVID’ deaths during this time.
The differences between the two columns (presented in the third chart) are where COVID deaths in 2020 have seemingly replaced deaths from other causes that might have been expected in this time period when compared to last year.
Overall there are about 11,000 deaths (or just about half the COVID deaths) which would likely have been registered under other causes last year. With over half of these (6,600) occurring in people over 85.
This data would suggest that around half of ‘COVID’ deaths during the time period here might have sadly occurred anyway with or without the illness (or without a positive test)
Let's be accurate, they count a COVID-19 death as one within 28 days of a positive test. The real question is, how many of those show COVID-19 as a primary cause of death on the death certificate.
PHE use that definition, ONS (where this data is from) use a mention on the death certificate. Their totals are now pretty close which would suggest the former leads to the latter in a lot of cases. So what you will get now is COVID mentioned and / or a +ve test in 28 days when for example previously other respitory illnesses would have been reported as the cause. As the chart below shows.
Also as can be seen in that chart that there are significant excess deaths from things like heart conditions this year which will likely be one of the reasons why there are more excess deaths in those under 64 than their are COVID deaths in that age group and a result of the response not the disease.
There are 2 definitions of death which causes confusion.
Firstly there's the 28 days, any cause after a test.
This is used for the daily doomsday media figures.
Lagging behind is ONS deaths where it was mentioned on the death certificate (note importantly NOT primary cause).
Add that was to the fact during wave 1 the regulations were changed in that its now FAR "easier" to die of COVID than any other disease in terms of checks, balances, verification, examination and so on.
