Does anyone have a reliable source on how many false positives (or negatives) are coming from the UK tests?
I am aware the PCR doesn't actually test for the virus but as this is what we are using let's assume it does for the minute.
I was under impression a huge number were returning false readings but I saw in the spectator that figure is actually just 0.4% which seems off.
And of you think the testing is a shambles in the UK, here in Spain my girlfriend (a teacher) has been told she might need to wait up to a month (it's been 10 days already) before her second test result comes back. Without negative she cannot work! She was inconclusive the first time and so of not allowed to work.
According to the government's own publication, they estimate a false-positive rate of between 0.8% and 4%, with a median of 2.3%.
(Source --- see top of page 2.)
And the proportion of tests which now return positive is between 1.4% and 1.5%.
So, by the government's own estimates, these are likely to be false positives.
According to the government's own publication, they estimate a false-positive rate of between 0.8% and 4%, with a median of 2.3%.
(Source --- see top of page 2.)
And the proportion of tests which now return positive is between 1.4% and 1.5%.
So, by the government's own estimates, these are likely to be false positives.
I downloaded this yesterday after reading about it on the homepage. It is held in a goverment storage area, as one can see by the url. I am a bit puzzled, though. Is this 'published'? It could be that it was presented to the government and they just filed it. I would be very interested to know it's status. If it does not have an official header and is not traceable, it could just disappear.
Hi - there was an article based on this paper published in the Telegraph in August. If you google Mayer and Baker it will come up. So it is in the public domain.
I have to confess that I initially understood the false positive thing as meaning that it was a percentage of people who had tested positive that could be false, not a percentage of the entire cohort that was tested. I wonder if other people think the same and therefore don't realise how very significant these numbers are?
Without much evidence other than thinking about it, I'm quite sure most people don't understand how False Positives and False Negatives work and how truly important these are to the matter. People can pick it up as part of life-time learning, but I'm guessing that the topic is introduced via education only at the university-level statistics and probably courses. And of course the vast majority of students would never be near such a course. How unfortunate.
That being said, it is unacceptable, in my view, that government leaders are now completely aware of the concept and if not part of their education that they demand their advisors teach them. Does that happen? Probably not.
