Could somebody point me in the direction of a suitable source (or create one) - level pitched at, say, a bright 5-year-old, then there's a chance that a council official might understand it!
The BMJ calculator is good - and very visual:
https://sandpit.bmj.com/graphics/2020/c19test/
It is limited in that the 'pre-test probability' (aka the true prevalence) does not go below 1% and other inputs are rounded to the nearest percent.
At the moment, ONS are suggesting this is 0.79% as of today's release:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23october2020#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
The latest figures (19,229 cases in 271,637 tests, averaged) is 7.08%. To match the ONS 0.79% true prevalence, a specificity of 93.50% is required. I use sensitivity of 80%. This gives a false positive rate of 91%. That is, only 1 in 11 tests is a true positive. These figures I have to calculate myself.
Using the BMJ calculator with approximate values, 1% for pre-test probability, 80% for sensitivity and 94% for specificity, you get a false positive rate of 86% and 1 in 7 true positives. This shows just how sensitive these calculations are.
If you want, I could send my simple spreadsheet that does the same, but will accept any value for prevalence.
If you want, I could send my simple spreadsheet that does the same, but will accept any value for prevalence.
Thanks - that would be useful. 🙂
Everyone listened to this?
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-atukd-efc5d9
Dr Mike Yeadon talks about his devastating paper 'What SAGE has Got Wrong'
https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
In which he says that the Covid pandemic is over, that there will be no Second Wave, that we have already achieved herd immunity and that Sir Patrick Vallance, Britain’s Chief Scientific Adviser, is a liar and that the vaccine is more or less a waste of time. He doesn’t pull his punches.
Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology, a research-based PhD in respiratory pharmacology, has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in the pharmaceuticals industry, and founded his own biotech company which he sold to the world’s biggest drug company Novartis in 2017.
If you want, I could send my simple spreadsheet that does the same, but will accept any value for prevalence.
Thanks - that would be useful. 🙂
My long-winded version calculates a lot more than you need and is not so user-friendly as the BMJ version. I just wrote a version that looks as close to the BMJ version as possible:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1j7sIeHUSWkOgr5SARcB5f6o_0HYva0zJ
I added a 'helper' so you can get the true prevalence from the number of cases and tests.
If you want, I could send my simple spreadsheet that does the same, but will accept any value for prevalence.
Thanks - that would be useful. 🙂
My long-winded version calculates a lot more than you need and is not so user-friendly as the BMJ version. I just wrote a version that looks as close to the BMJ version as possible:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1j7sIeHUSWkOgr5SARcB5f6o_0HYva0zJ
I added a 'helper' so you can get the true prevalence from the number of cases and tests.
This is splitting hairs! Dr Mike Yeadon has blown the PCR testing of the populace out of the water. The pandemic is over. There will not be a second wave because viruses do not have second waves (virology 101). We have already achieved herd immunity and Sir Patrick Vallance, Britain’s Chief Scientific Adviser, is a liar (so says Yeadon).
The only reason this pandemic is not over is because SAGE says it's not over.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-atukd-efc5d9
Dr Mike Yeadon's devastating paper 'What SAGE has Got Wrong'
https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
