27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
Ct used in PCR test...
 
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Ct used in PCR tests in Wales

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MyHomeIsMyCastle
Posts: 233
Topic starter
(@myhomeismycastle)
Joined: 1 year ago

The corollary being that false positives are falsely reporting a falsely-used falsehood.
I've never seen so many falsies.

My head just exploded!

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miahoneybee
Posts: 1541
(@miahoneybee)
Joined: 1 year ago

Thank you.
Much easier to understand.the false positives have been ridiculously high .people are still lining up for them.
🙄

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MyHomeIsMyCastle
Posts: 233
Topic starter
(@myhomeismycastle)
Joined: 1 year ago

Thank you.
Much easier to understand.the false positives have been ridiculously high .people are still lining up for them.
🙄

Between the Ct issue and the false positives, I wonder how many genuine infections there are?

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Mabel Cow
Posts: 52
(@mabel-cow)
Joined: 1 year ago

Dunno if this is a valid way to estimate the number of infections, but I'll have a go.

Inputs:

  • IFR for under 70s = 0.05% (Ioannides et al).

  • Deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on death certificate for people under 70 for week ending 2020-10-02 = 8,682 (ONS).
  • Calculation of total infections in the year to 2020-10-02:

  • (8,682 deaths) / (0.0005 deaths per infection) = 17,364,000 infections.
  • Infections as a percentage of the UK population, assuming only one infection per person:

  • 17,364,000 / 67,992,136 = 26% (to 2sf)
  • Caveat:

  • This estimate is for the total number of infections that have occurred this year. Estimating the number of currently active infections is another matter.
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    MikeAustin
    Posts: 1193
    (@mikeaustin)
    Joined: 1 year ago

    Dunno if this is a valid way to estimate the number of infections, but I'll have a go.

    Inputs:

  • IFR for under 70s = 0.05% (Ioannides et al).

  • Deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on death certificate for people under 70 for week ending 2020-10-02 = 8,682 (ONS).
  • Calculation of total infections in the year to 2020-10-02:

  • (8,682 deaths) / (0.0005 deaths per infection) = 17,364,000 infections.
  • Infections as a percentage of the UK population, assuming only one infection per person:

  • 17,364,000 / 67,992,136 = 26% (to 2sf)
  • Caveat:

  • This estimate is for the total number of infections that have occurred this year. Estimating the number of currently active infections is another matter.
  • These ONS figures are for England and Wales (total population 59,439,840) so we have 29.2%. Otherwise, it doesn't seem unreasonable.
    One needs to be careful where these sorts of calculation lead. 86.8% of the population is under 70. So 0.05% of the E&W population under 70 is 25,797. Some people might say that we have 17,115 deaths of under-70s to go if we "let it rip". 😮

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