Yes I think so. Many of those central European countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary) had high excess mortality for the 12 months before the pandemic, and the resulting mortality displacement, rather than government policy, seems to be the main explanation for the low pandemic death toll in those countries in the spring.

Yes, this is a good point that Ivor Cummins also makes. He uses the unfortunate phrase 'dry tinder' left over from the previous year.

Thanks to everyone for these useful comments, I will follow up but these are interesting points. 🙂

Following the lead from a comment above, I have made a graphic comparing deaths in Czech Republic in 2018 compared to 2020, see here, beware the scale is different so you need to look at the numbers.

Full lockdown in CZ starts tomorrow, with "non-essential" businesses and shops closed https://112.international/society/strict-quarantine-imposed-in-czech-republic-from-october-22-55806.html . Schools apart from kindergartens were already closed. What a miserable situation. As here in the UK, the hospitalisation numbers seem nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year; it's the spread of positive PCR results and media doom-spreading that have people worried.

Latest news from CZ is that the newly-appointed health minister, an ex-military epidemiologist and keen lockdown advocate, has been spotted in a restaurant that was supposed to be closed, in a gathering without masks, breaking the rules that he made for everybody else. He has been asked to resign.