I've posted a link that is a rebuttal of comments made by Dr John Lee, on Talk Radio. It quotes ONS figures to claim that death rates right now are well above the 27 year average - 20% above.
Is this true? Are there stats that can refute this?
Please see the link and reply if you have any information. Looking at Euromomo, and latest Ivor Cummings analysis, it seems excess death rates are average. But these ONS figures seem to refute that.
Link:
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths-winter-2020-talkradio/
27 year average? Oh dear. How about they calculate the deaths based on an average of every other year, ignoring the years when the most people died.
I suggest you look at the ONS site and read the explanatory notes as to how they calculate deaths.
I've posted a link that is a rebuttal of comments made by Dr John Lee, on Talk Radio. It quotes ONS figures to claim that death rates right now are well above the 27 year average - 20% above.
Is this true? Are there stats that can refute this?
Please see the link and reply if you have any information. Looking at Euromomo, and latest Ivor Cummings analysis, it seems excess death rates are average. But these ONS figures seem to refute that.
Link:
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths-winter-2020-talkradio/
First of all, these are difficult weeks to compare meaningfully because they include too many bank holidays. The results for all years are a bit scattered.
For England & Wales, according to ONS statistics, we have the following figures for the last four weeks in the last ten years: min 36,800, ave 40,473, max 44,640.
For 2020, we have 49,126. This is 21.4 % above average and 10.0% above maximum. They are not far out on this basis.
If we factor previous years by population totals to make compatible with 2020, we have the following figures: min 38,738, ave 42,026, max 56,858.
For 2020, we have 49,126. This is 16.9% above average and 4.8% above maximum.
So I would say, based on the last four weeks, we are 4.8% above the normal range.
If we factor previous years by population totals to make compatible with 2020, we have the following figures: min 38,738, ave 42,026, max 56,858.
For 2020, we have 49,126. This is 16.9% above average and 4.8% above maximum.
So I would say, based on the last four weeks, we are 4.8% above the normal range.
It is essential population numbers are factored in but ...
Err ... I make 49,126 to be 13.6% lower than the maximum of 56,858?
Not clear to me how you got 4.8?
Out of curiosity, what year had that maximum?
Err ... I make 49,126 to be 13.6% lower than the maximum of 56,858?
Not clear to me how you got 4.8?
Out of curiosity, what year had that maximum?
Oops, typo. It should have been 46,858 not 56,858. Hençe 4.8%.
2010 was the maximum.
