We are obviously interested in 4th September to the 10th September range.
Are you quite sure about your cases/tests data of err 0.5 to 1% ?
You see ONS said that in their in the community survey seem to have a value a tenth of that?
I am not talking about the prevalence here. The 0.5%, 1.5%, 2.5% are all total positives from the tests. This includes the prevalence and the false positives, plus any other 'stuff'. It is quite easily verifiable from the ONS daily data in the charts I posted here. You also pasted some of them in.
….during the most recent week (4 to 10 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.10 (95% credible interval: 0.77 to 1.51) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day …..
Circa 0.1% cases/tests?
Yes, their estimated prevalence. Using the BMJ tool, we can get to the % of all positives (ONS cases/tests) by playing with the input - one of which is prevalence. It is important to do this. It is one of the few 'knowns' that we have - or are at least one of the few we have been given.
Using the ONS estimate of prevalence, we cannot easily balance out this real-world measurement.
If you understand everything thats wrong with HIV testing, you'll understand everything that's wrong with CV19, HCV, HPV and most other Western Blot and PCR testing. They're ALL false positives. https://www.omsj.org/blogs/hiv-tests-explained
If you understand everything thats wrong with HIV testing, you'll understand everything that's wrong with CV19, HCV, HPV and most other Western Blot and PCR testing. They're ALL false positives. https://www.omsj.org/blogs/hiv-tests-explained
Hmm. I see what you mean. The analogy of a footprint is a good one. However, I would not hang around to see if a lot of fresh lion footprints really indicated that lions were present or not. I would make a quick exit.
40% of the UK population has already had Covid19 !
Ok this deaths graph looks quite nice.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
It is a model and the shape and profile of it is more than likely the same as cases.
If it were we know something about it from the ONS data;
the 26th of april is histogram bar is equivalent to 0.5% of UK cases.
From that you can calculate the area hence total cases to date as a % of the population.
With a bit of maths and algebra
I got 40%
Or 40% of the population has had covid!
Thought I might be going mad so calculated it up to 10th may
and got 27%
Remembering this article of course
and good old Sunetra
…… 14 May 2020
|
‘Over 25% of the UK likely to have had COVID-19 already’
A team of researchers from The University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, have shown that a significant proportion of people in the UK- over 25% - is likely to have been infected already by the COVID-19 virus.
The study - published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice - is the first to use the published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the COVID-19 outbreak began.
This has enabled them to calculate the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19 - within each local authority area.
The published case data from the 144 Local Authorities analysed by the team now gives an R value of well below 1.
The value – which was over 3 at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March 2020 – fell as a consequence of social distancing combined with the natural consequences of cumulative community infection.
Daily reported cases peaked at the beginning of April 2020 and hospital deaths a week later in England. …..
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/
40% of the UK population has already had Covid19 !
Ok this deaths graph looks quite nice.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
Yes, I might put a copy over my fireplace.
It is a model and the shape and profile of it is more than likely the same as cases.
Why not simply go to the cases page:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
Manually integrate it if you like, but clicking the cumulative button is much easier. You get 416,363. Then a look at the tests page for a cumulative of 19,325,203 tests and you get 2.15% overall.
With a bit of maths and algebra I got 40%
Or 40% of the population has had covid!
Thought I might be going mad so calculated it up to 10th may and got 27%
I hate to be the one to tell you, but madness would appear to have the higher probability here. It looks like you have added lots of 0.5%s together. We don't get another 0.5% every day. At the moment, we are getting around 6,700 from 67,000,000, or about 0.01% every day from the population, which is about 2.5% from the daily tests.
I often suffer from this myself. I work out some numbers that I don't believe, but the only way I can prove them wrong is by presenting them to someone else and looking a right buffoon in the process! I have done that at least once on this forum and I expect I will do it again. Never mind, eh?
