Lockdown Sceptics Archived Posts

For archived Lockdown Sceptics posts.

Britain Sees Fastest Decline in Covid Cases in the World

The Spectator has added a new table to its data hub, showing where the current level of Covid infection is in different countries around the world relative to the peak. It shows that Britain has seen the sharpest decline in the developed world, with cases now 97% lower than their peak on January 9th, 2021.

Spectator editor Fraser Nelson writes:

Britain has had one of the worst Covid death tolls in the world: today’s success should be seen in that context. The severity of the spread in UK has left higher recovery immunity even in unvaccinated age groups (almost half of under-25s have antibodies, according to the ONS) which limits the size of any third wave. UCL argues that we’ll hit herd immunity tomorrow: we discuss this in the latest edition of The Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast. In general, Covid is back down to (or below) summer levels and almost all of those at risk of fatal infection have been protected.

Worth reading in full.

Cheap, Safe Treatment Cuts Serious COVID-19 by 90%, Oxford Study Shows

A study from Oxford University has confirmed the remarkable effectiveness of common asthma treatment Budesonide for treating COVID-19.

First published as a pre-print in February and now as a peer-reviewed paper in the Lancet, the STOIC phase 2 randomised study found that inhaled Budesonide given to patients with COVID-19 within seven days of symptom onset reduced the relative risk of requiring urgent care or hospitalisation by 90%. It also resulted in a quicker recovery time for those who experienced fever and other symptoms and fewer persistent symptoms after 28 days, suggesting it could help to reduce the incidence of ‘long Covid’ in those given it as an early treatment.

Budesonide is a corticosteroid used in the long-term management of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The study, which is supported by the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and AstraZeneca, involved 146 people, half of whom took 800 micrograms of the medication twice a day while half were on usual care. It was confirmed to be safe (unsurprising for an established medicine), with only five (7%) participants reporting self-limiting adverse events.

Professor Mona Bafadhel of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine, who led the trial, said: “I am heartened that a relatively safe, widely available and well studied medicine such as an inhaled steroid could have an impact on the pressures we are experiencing during the pandemic.”

The trial came into being because clinicians noted early on in the pandemic that patients with chronic respiratory disease, who are often prescribed inhaled steroids, were significantly under-represented among those admitted to hospital with COVID-19, despite the condition being a likely risk factor.

Budesonide is unusual because, unlike Vitamin D, Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, it has not (yet) been (unfairly) rubbished in the mainstream press and medical literature. For those other potential treatments you can see the studies for yourself here and read a fair overview here.

If a highly effective early outpatient treatment for COVID-19 becomes available then that may change everything in terms of vaccine programmes and exit strategies. The COVID-19 vaccines are currently authorised not under ordinary marketing licences but under temporary emergency approval. This approval is conditional on there being a current medical emergency. In the EU emergency approval can only be for an “unmet medical need”, and the approval is reviewed annually. In the US there must be no “adequate, approved, and available alternatives”. In the UK a disease must be a “serious risk or potentially serious risk to human health”, though there is no requirement to review the temporary approval.

An efficacy in reducing serious disease by 90% would rival the reported efficacy of the vaccines. The trial did not include many in high risk groups such as the elderly or those with underlying conditions, but vaccine effectiveness is also reduced in these groups.

As proven effective treatments like Budesonide come online, will the Government’s case for draconian interventions and coerced vaccinations, even on its own twisted terms, fall away?

Up to 80% of Sicilians Refuse AstraZeneca Vaccine

Despite attempts by the Sicilian President to soothe fears over the relationship between the AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots, as many as four in five people in the Southern Italian region are refusing the AZ jab. According to the Telegraph, President Nello Musumeci said: “In Sicily, there is an 80% refusal rate of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Every 100 people, 80 say no.” His spokeswoman clarified that the refusal rate is “up to” 80%, rather than 80% dead-on, citing the town of Syracuse as an example, where the rate is 30%. Musumeci urged people to look beyond their personal concerns and to take the vaccine when given the opportunity:

“It is natural [for people to be particularly concerned], but we have a duty to believe scientists when they say it is more dangerous not to get vaccinated than to get vaccinated.”

Italy was among the first nations to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in early March due to concerns about its link to blood clots. In an interview with La Stampa, Franco Locatelli, the Italian Government’s top scientific advisor on Covid, said that fears over the AZ vaccine are “understandable, but unjustified”.

“I say that we are offering a vaccine that is safe and effective, which people must accept. That said, if we find ourselves facing a disarming number of defections, we will reconsider the issue.”

Sicily’s refusal rate is indicative of the damage done to the reputation of the AstraZeneca vaccine by reports on its side effects. Similarly, in Denmark, a recent survey found that far more Danes would decline to get an AstraZeneca Covid vaccine than would refuse to get a Covid jab altogether. Reuters reported:

One in three Danes would decline to get a Covid shot using AstraZeneca’s vaccine, local media outlets TV 2 and Politiken reported late on Wednesday, citing a recent survey. …

The survey, conducted by Megafon among 1,053 persons, showed 33% of Danes would decline to get a shot with AstraZeneca’s vaccine. However, only 7% would decline regardless of which Covid vaccine they were offered.

Polling suggests that Brits are more trustworthy of the AstraZeneca vaccine regardless of its links to blood clots. In a new YouGov survey, at least 75% of British respondents said that they trust the AZ jab.

Lack of Outdoor Space Will Prevent Large Number of Hospitality Venues Opening As Lockdown Partially Eased

While the partial easing of lockdown restrictions is being welcomed by the hospitality industry, the requirement that customers must remain outdoors means a great many businesses across the country will have no choice but to remain closed until restrictions are eased further. BBC News has the story.

A “large proportion” of hospitality businesses “won’t be able to open” on Monday, despite an easing of lockdown restrictions in England, because they do not have access to sufficient outdoor space. 

In England… restaurants and pubs [will be] allowed to serve food and alcohol to customers sitting outdoors.

But Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UK Hospitality, told BBC Breakfast only two in every five venues would reopen. 

“The majority of the industry still has to cling on for five weeks,” said Ms Nicholls.

Nonetheless she said it was a “welcome restart” for those businesses that are able to comply with current coronavirus measures.

Ms Nicholls said that even those venues which can reopen will achieve nothing like their normal revenues: “They still aren’t going to break even… the best they are going to achieve outdoors is 20%.”

“Until we get to June 21st, hospitality won’t be able to be viable.”

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: Rachael Robathan, the the leader of Tory-run Westminster council, has urged the Government to bring forward indoor opening of pubs from May. She is quoted in the Telegraph.

The hospitality sector continues to face real peril, with difficult choices presented as a result of what the roadmap does and does not allow. 

The costs and challenges associated with a reopening limited to outdoor space, if there is indeed any available to them, means that many businesses have informed us that they must delay their reopening until May, slowing down the recovery.

This is a particular challenge for central London venues where there is less likelihood of businesses having access to outdoor space in the first place, compared to rural areas and market towns. 

For many premises, it is simply not viable to open, although we will continue our sector-leading al fresco programme to extend this opportunity to as many businesses as we can.

Worth reading in full.

News Round Up

The Paralysis of Caution

We’re publishing a new essay by Guy de la Bédoyère about the excessive cautiousness that is preventing the Government from being more bold. Guy traces it to the cautiousness of the modellers and points out how odd that attitude is to the adventurousness of pioneering scientists like Edward Jenner and Marie Curie. Here’s an extract:

Regardless of your views about vaccines, it is a fact that Edward Jenner took the reckless step of infecting his gardener’s eight-year-old son first with cowpox and then with smallpox. As we all know, the experiment was a success. By today’s standards of gibbering caution, it was the most outrageous example of recklessness imaginable. Yet how else was he ever going to find out if it worked? If that happened today, Jenner would probably never have dared try his theory out and if he had he’d have been struck off and imprisoned. I have no doubt that had a predictive modeller been on hand, busy calculating the risk, there wouldn’t have been a virus in hell’s chance of him being allowed to go ahead.

On December 23rd 1750 Benjamin Franklin electrocuted himself when he tried to kill a turkey with electricity, believing the meat would be more tender. He survived, chastened by the experience. In 1839-43, James Clark Ross took two sailing ships, the Erebus and Terror, on an epic voyage of exploration and scientific experiment around Antarctica. Today he wouldn’t have been allowed out of port.

There are so many other examples from those days of early science it would be impossible to list them. But the underlying approach reaches right into more recent times. We have aviation because people were prepared to throw themselves into the air with bizarre pieces of winged equipment or brave their way across the Atlantic in a Vickers Vimy from Newfoundland to Ireland, as Alcock and Brown did in 1919. Imagine the risk assessment if anyone had bothered to think of writing one at the time, and the same applies to Marie Curie’s work on radiation.

Worth reading in full.

“Vaccine Bounce” Gives Tories Largest Poll Lead Since May Last Year

With approval of the Government’s management of the vaccine rollout standing at 72%, the Tories have extended their lead over Labour up to nine points, according to new polling by Opinium. This is the party’s largest lead since May last year. Approval of the Government’s handling of Covid overall is also net positive for the first time since May (at 44%), and over half of those polled believe that Britain is unlocking at about the right pace.

Conservative Party voters were also shown to be the most supportive of vaccine passports, both for domestic and international use. Here are the key findings.

The Conservatives expand their lead to nine points, their largest lead since May last year, according to Opinium’s latest poll.  The Conservatives currently have 45% of the vote (+4 from two weeks ago), while Labour have 36% (-1), Lib Dems have 6% and the Greens 4%. …

Overall approval of the Government’s handling of the pandemic is net positive for the first time since May last year. This rise coincides with the vaccine rollout in February, and 44% now approve of the Tories’ handling and 36% disapprove.

Unsurprisingly, approval for handling of the vaccine rollout remains strong with 72% approving and only 8% disapproving. This is high even among Labour voters (71%) and SNP voters (57%). …

As lockdown measures continue to ease next week, over half (54%) think the roadmap is easing is at about the right pace, up slightly from 47% two weeks ago. Those thinking it was moving “too quickly” has dropped from 31% to 27% and “too slowly” from 12% to 10%.

The public is, on balance, supportive of the idea of vaccine passports, with 57% supporting this for entering busy venues within the UK and over two thirds (68%) for international travel. In both cases, the Conservative voters are the most supportive (70% for domestic and 83% for international) and Labour voters are more mixed (57% for domestic and 69% for international).

Adam Drummond, the Head of Political Polling at Opinium, has pinned the extension of the Conservative’s lead over Labour on the Government’s handling of the vaccine rollout.

The vaccine bounce continues to yield political benefits for the Government with their strongest figures for handling the pandemic since they first became negative last May. In terms of voting intention the figures bounce around due to statistical noise but there is a consistent Conservative lead in the high single digits.

Worth reading in full.

More Than Half of People in England Living In Areas with Almost No New Covid Cases

Many areas across England have now gone months without enough Covid cases to justify the publication of their data, as the Prime Minister is urged to honour his pledge of following “data not dates”. The Telegraph has the story.

Over half of people in England now live in an area in which new cases of Covid have all but vanished, with some places not reporting a case in public data for more than a month.

Infections have been so low in areas with a total population of 34.5 million that Public Health England has redacted their latest weekly case tallies in order to protect the privacy of those – if any – who test positive.

These 4,307 areas could have had at most two new cases but potentially zero in the seven days to April 4th – and 1,091, home to 8.2 million people, have had their data suppressed every week since the end of February.

Around 20,000 cases are now being detected across England each week – a fall of nearly 95% from the peak of more than 380,000 during the worst week of the second wave.

At that time in January, only six neighbourhoods out of a total of 6,791 in PHE’s data had low enough cases to require redaction under data protection rules, as the more contagious Kent variant of the virus left few areas untouched.  

However, many places have now gone months without enough cases to justify publication of their data.

Areas of Devon including Bampton, Holcombe, Westleigh, Lynton and Combe Martin have all gone 10 weeks with close to zero cases, while in Cornwall Towednack, Lelant, Carbis Bay, Probus and Roseland have gone nine.

On average, areas that have had their most recent weekly case total redacted are now in their third week in a row with close to zero cases, suggesting infections are staying low even after the recent relaxation of lockdown measures.

Conservative MP William Wragg said that the emphasis now should be on “data and not dates”.

It is good that we are making such strong progress and I would hope therefore that there should be no impediment to progress. If the roadmap can be accelerated, it should be accelerated.

Last month, Mark Harper, the Chairman of the Covid Recovery Group (CRG), said that the idea Boris Johnson is following “data not dates” could look “increasingly ridiculous” unless the opening of some things was “[brought] forward”. Infections rose week-on-week in only one in seven areas across England between March 28th and April 4th, which some MPs argue is not enough to excuse the continuation of the “roadmap” out of lockdown at its current slow pace.

Steve Baker, the CRG’s Deputy Chairman, suggested the “stellar success” of the vaccine rollout meant people should now be treated as “responsible adults”.

Worth reading in full.

Professor Denis Rancourt Banned From ResearchGate For Warning of Harms of Masks

Professor Denis Rancourt has been banned from academic pre-print publishing site ResearchGate for publishing research evidence suggesting masks can cause harm to the wearer.

He announced the news on Twitter: “ResearchGate today has permanently locked my account, which I have had since 2015. Their reasons graphically show the nature of their attack against democracy, and their corruption of science. … By their obscene non-logic, a scientific review of science articles reporting on harms caused by face masks has a ‘potential to cause harm’. No criticism of the psychological device (face masks) is tolerated, if the said criticism shows potential to influence public policy.”

Prof Rancourt, whose paper reviewing research on the harms of masks had been viewed more than 200,000 times, tweeted screenshots of emails he had received from the website warning him of his breaches of their terms of service, one of which stated:

In our view, those reports, among other things, discouraged the use of face masks, which contradicts the public health advice and/or legal requirements of credible agencies and governments. We, therefore, concluded that under our policies the reports had potential to cause harm. Posting content that has potential to cause harm is a violation of our Terms of Service.

Dr Clare Craig of HART tweeted: “We are in full witch hunt mode now. Science – which by definition requires debate – cannot exist in this environment.”

ResearchGate, as a privately owned website, is fully within its rights to have whatever terms of service it wishes and refuse to host whatever content it wants. But that doesn’t mean its decisions aren’t harmful to scientific debate or don’t constitute misplaced censorship of evidence that is inconvenient to governments or supportive of unfashionable views. ResearchGate may be entitled, under its Terms of Service, to censor evidence that runs counter to the policies of Western governments, but that doesn’t make it good for advancing scientific understanding.

Prof Rancourt’s articles are still available here.

An Election Address by Boris Johns-On

Paul Bird, a Lockdown Sceptics reader, imagines a letter he might get from Boris Johnson, listing all his achievements in the run up to the May 6th local elections. They include destroying thousands of businesses, plunging millions into unemployment, ratcheting up the national debt, etc. Here is Boris’s preamble, before he outlines all his ‘wins’:

At the election in December 2019, just 16 months ago, you weighed up the competing offers of the Conservative Party – sound economic policy, living within our means, reducing the burden of the state on the British people; and the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn – a creeping increase in state power, loss of freedoms, and unsustainable spending pushing up the national debt.

You overwhelmingly chose the former and handed a landslide victory to the Conservatives. I am immensely grateful to you for putting your trust in me to deliver on the promises we made.

With the local elections coming up in May I would urge you to consider this Conservative Government’s achievements since coming to power. I hope this impressive list will convince you to ‘Vote Conservative!’ in the election.

And here are some of Boris’s achievements: